面向地震设防风险的未来中国城乡人口情景及暴露特征

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2021.271

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2022, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (6): 707-719.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2021.271

面向地震设防风险的未来中国城乡人口情景及暴露特征

张化¹^,⁴(), 李汶莉²^,³, 李雪敏²^,³, 董琳²^,³, 杨有田²^,³, 张国明¹^,⁴, 许映军¹^,⁴

1 北京师范大学国家安全与应急管理学院，北京 100875
2 北京师范大学地理科学学部，北京 100875
3 北京师范大学民政部教育部减灾与应急管理研究院，北京 100875
4 北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室，北京 100875

收稿日期:2021-12-02 修回日期:2022-03-07 出版日期:2022-11-30 发布日期:2022-10-27
作者简介:张化，男，高级工程师，zhanghua2011@bnu.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家重点研究开发项目“海岸带和沿海地区全球变化综合风险研究”(2017YFA0604903);国家重点研究开发项目“海岸带和沿海地区全球变化综合风险研究”(2017YFA0604904)

Analysis of urban and rural population scenarios and exposure characteristics in China in the future for the prevention of earthquake risk

ZHANG Hua¹^,⁴(), LI Wen-Li²^,³, LI Xue-Min²^,³, DONG Lin²^,³, YANG You-Tian²^,³, ZHANG Guo-Ming¹^,⁴, XU Ying-Jun¹^,⁴

1 School of National Safety and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
2 Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
3 Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management Ministry of Emergency Management & Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
4 Beijing Normal University State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing 100875, China

Received:2021-12-02 Revised:2022-03-07 Online:2022-11-30 Published:2022-10-27

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

中国城镇和乡村住房建筑地震设防水平差距较大，暴露在低设防农村与高密集城镇下的人口因此面临较高的地震风险，面向地震设防风险分析未来城乡人口及暴露特征具有重要意义。本文基于地震烈度区划图和人口-发展-环境（PDE）模型，模拟分析了5种共享社会经济路径（SSPs）情景下的未来城乡人口地震灾害时空暴露。结果表明：(1)除SSP3下城镇人口数量持续增加外，其他SSP情景下各地区城镇人口数量均先增后降，农村人口数量受城镇化影响呈持续下降趋势；(2)城镇与农村地震灾害高、较高人口暴露等级空间分布相似，集中在华北、西南与东部沿海地区；(3)相较于有设防的城镇地区，无设防农村地震人口暴露等级偏高，高暴露、较高暴露等级的数量偏多，未来城镇人口暴露等级有所上升，而农村人口暴露等级逐渐降低。

关键词: 人口暴露, 城乡差异, 设防水平, 地震灾害, 共享社会经济路径（SSP）, 气候变化

Abstract:

There is a huge gap between the seismic fortification level of urban and rural housing buildings in China. The population exposed to low fortification rural areas and high-density cities are faced with high seismic risk. Therefore, it is of great significance to analyse the future urban and rural population and their exposure characteristics. Based on the data of the sixth national population census, this paper uses seismic intensity distribution and the population development environment (PDE) model to simulate the urban and rural population exposure to earthquake disaster of China’s city level units from 2010 to 2100 under five shared socio-economic scenarios (SSPs). The results show that: (1) Except for the continuous increase of urban population under SSP3, other SSP paths’ number of urban population in various regions increased first and then decreased, and rural population is declining due to urbanization; (2) The spatial distribution of high and medium high population exposure levels in urban and rural areas is similar, concentrated in North China, southwestern and eastern coastal areas of China; (3) Compared with fortified urban areas, the exposure level of non-fortified rural areas is high, and the number of high exposure areas are large. In the future, the exposure level of urban population will rise, while the exposure level of rural population will gradually decrease.

Key words: Population exposure, Urban and rural differences, Fortification level, Earthquake disaster, Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP), Climate change

张化, 李汶莉, 李雪敏, 董琳, 杨有田, 张国明, 许映军. 面向地震设防风险的未来中国城乡人口情景及暴露特征[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2022, 18(6): 707-719.

ZHANG Hua, LI Wen-Li, LI Xue-Min, DONG Lin, YANG You-Tian, ZHANG Guo-Ming, XU Ying-Jun. Analysis of urban and rural population scenarios and exposure characteristics in China in the future for the prevention of earthquake risk[J]. Climate Change Research, 2022, 18(6): 707-719.

图/表 11

图1 未来人口模拟技术路线示意图

Fig. 1 Schematic diagram of future population simulation technical route

表1 中国总体城市化率目标设置

Table 1 Target setting of China’s urbanization rate

表2 2010—2100年中国不同等级生育率

Table 2 Fertility rate at different levels in China from 2010 to 2100

图2 第五代中国地震动峰值加速度（PGA）区划图注：g表示重力加速度，1g≈9.81 m/s2，0.1g代表的地震动峰值加速度则为0.981 m/s2。图来源于中国地震局。

Fig. 2 Seismic ground motion parameters zonation map (PGA) of China (China Earthquake Administration)

图3 PGA等级与城乡人口暴露等级对照图

Fig. 3 Classification of exposure levels of urban and rural population to PGA

图4 SSP情景下中国城镇和农村未来人口数量变化

Fig. 4 Future population change in urban and rural China under SSP scenario

图5 2015年城乡人口模拟结果误差分析注：柱状图的顶部为误差线，误差线长度越长，模拟结果一致性越低。图中大部分地市误差线较短，一致性较高。

Fig. 5 Error analysis of urban and rural population simulation results in 2015

图6 SSP1、SSP3、SSP5情景下中国城镇未来人口数量空间分布图

Fig. 6 Spatial distribution of future urban population in China under SSP1, SSP3 and SSP5

图7 SSP1、SSP3、SSP5情景下中国农村未来人口空间分布图

Fig. 7 Spatial distribution of future rural population in China under SSP1, SSP3 and SSP5

图8 SSP1、SSP3、SSP5情景下中国城镇未来人口地震灾害风险暴露等级

Fig. 8 Earthquake disasters exposure level of future urban population in China under SSP1, SSP3 and SSP5

图9 SSP1、SSP3、SSP5情景下中国农村未来人口地震灾害风险暴露等级

Fig. 9 Earthquake disasters exposure level of future rural population in China under SSP1, SSP3 and SSP5

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面向地震设防风险的未来中国城乡人口情景及暴露特征

Analysis of urban and rural population scenarios and exposure characteristics in China in the future for the prevention of earthquake risk

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