低排放分析平台LEAP：应对气候变化下的应用与挑战

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2024.145

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为应对全球气候变化，如何根据地区发展的差异性选择合适的转型技术和路径是推进减污降碳协同实现高质量发展的关键。以自下而上方式构建的低排放分析平台（Low Emissions Analysis Platform，LEAP）以其高灵活性和丰富的技术细节，以及能源系统建模与优化、情景分析模拟等功能在能源转型路径评估和支持协同减污降碳目标上得到广泛的应用。文中系统性解析LEAP的结构与功能，对比分析了2017年以来LEAP在评估不同领域转型路径和减排政策的能源消耗水平、减排成本及其环境影响等方面的应用。在气候变化背景下，LEAP应增强在水资源、土地利用及健康效应等关键问题上的功能拓展，应对城市层面、新经济支柱领域转型及碳减排等方面的挑战，促进各地区在减污降碳协同与经济发展间找到最佳平衡，从而推动制定和实施更有效的气候政策和行动计划。

关键词: 应对气候变化, 能源转型, 低排放分析平台（LEAP), 减污降碳协同, 高质量发展

Abstract:

Responding to global climate change, selecting appropriate transition technologies and pathways based on regional development differences is crucial for advancing high-quality development through coordinated pollution reduction and carbon mitigation efforts. The Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP), which is constructed in a bottom-up manner, is widely used for assessing energy transition pathways and supporting coordinated pollution reduction and carbon mitigation goals due to its high flexibility, detailed technical capabilities, and features such as energy system modeling, optimization, and scenario analysis. This paper systematically analyzes the structure and function of LEAP, compares and analyzes the application of LEAP in evaluating the energy consumption levels, emission reduction costs, and environmental impact of different transformation paths and emission reduction policies in different fields since 2017. In the context of climate change, LEAP should enhance its functional expansion on key issues such as water resources, land use, and health effects. It should also address challenges related to urban-level transitions, new economic pillar sectors, and carbon reduction. This will promote the best balance between pollution and carbon reduction synergy and economic development in various regions, thereby promoting the formulation and implementation of more effective climate policies and action plans.

Key words: Addressing climate change, Energy transformation, Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP), Synergies for reducing pollution and carbon, High-quality development

吴沛泽, 陈莎, 刘影影, 李晓桐, 杜展霞, 崔淑芬, 姜克隽. 低排放分析平台LEAP：应对气候变化下的应用与挑战[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2024, 20(5): 611-623.

WU Pei-Ze, CHEN Sha, LIU Ying-Ying, LI Xiao-Tong, DU Zhan-Xia, CUI Shu-Fen, JIANG Ke-Jun. Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP): applications and challenges in addressing climate change[J]. Climate Change Research, 2024, 20(5): 611-623.

图/表 5

表1 常见的能源-环境-经济协同模型

Table 1 Common energy-environment-economy coordinated models

图1 2017—2023年LEAP研究热点知识图谱

Fig. 1 LEAP research hotspot knowledge graph in 2017-2023

图2 低排放分析平台（LEAP）发展脉络图

Fig. 2 Development map of Low Emission Analysis Platform (LEAP)

图3 基于LEAP的模型结构及功能[14-15]

Fig. 3 Model structure and function based on LEAP [14-15]

图4 2017—2023年文献中模型情况注：年份是指相关文献发表的时间；圆圈的大小是指已发表的研究数量；大圈代表某年度总的文献数量，小圈代表某年度某模型的应用数量。

Fig. 4 The application status of model in the literature from 2017 to 2023. (The year refers to the time when the relevant literature was published, the size of the circle refers to the number of studies published; the large circle represents the total number of publications for a given year, while the small circle indicates the number of applications of a specific model for that year)

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