工业部门的气候适应研究进展

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2024.004

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

气候变化对工业部门的影响正受到越来越多的关注。缓发性气候因素和突发性气候因素对制造业、采矿业和电力行业产生了重要影响。短期内，工业部门主要进行被动适应；而在长期内，当产生了气候变化的预期以及预测可能带来的结果时，工业部门能够进行主动适应。案例研究与问卷调查是理解分析组成工业部门的个体企业适应行为的重要途径，而各类计量模型与综合模型还主要集中于针对气候变化对工业产出、出口等方面的影响评估，缺少对工业部门气候适应行为的评估与分析。工业部门适应气候变化的挑战，包括研究和实践两个层面。研究上，存在对气候适应定义的争议，缺乏针对适应有效性、不良适应以及适应极限的探索；实践上，成本和决策层面的阻碍是主要挑战。未来需要进行更多的定量分析，将气候变化对工业的影响与适应策略相联系，考虑区域、行业及企业的异质性，构建模型和评价体系探索工业气候适应的复杂内在机理，以帮助工业部门更好地适应气候变化。

关键词: 工业部门, 气候变化, 气候适应, 适应策略

Abstract:

The impact of climate change on the industrial sector is gaining increasing attention. Both slow-onset and sudden climate factors have important impacts on the manufacturing, mining, and electricity industries. In the short term, the industrial sector mainly engages in passive adaptation under the influence of climate factors, while in the long term, it can engage in proactive adaptation when anticipating climate change and its potential consequences. Case studies and questionnaire surveys are important approaches to understanding and analyzing the adaptive behavior of individual enterprises, while various econometric models and integrated models still focus on assessing the impact of climate change on industrial output, exports and other aspects, lacking evaluation and analysis of the climate adaptation behavior of the industrial sector. The challenges of adapting to climate change involve both research and practice. In terms of research, the definition of climate adaptation is controversial, and there exists a lack of exploration regarding the effectiveness of adaptation, maladaptation, and adaptive limits. In practice, cost and decision-making barriers are the main challenges. In the future, in order to assist the industrial sector in better adapting to climate change, it is important to conduct more quantitative analyses, link the impacts of climate change on industry with adaptation strategies, consider the heterogeneity of regions, industries, and enterprises, construct models and evaluation systems to explore the complex underlying mechanisms of industrial climate adaptation.

Key words: Industry, Climate change, Climate adaptation, Adaptation strategy

朱磊, 张丽忠, 蒋莹, 徐剑锋, 黄艳, 孙淑欣. 工业部门的气候适应研究进展[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2024, 20(6): 721-735.

ZHU Lei, ZHANG Li-Zhong, JIANG Ying, XU Jian-Feng, HUANG Yan, SUN Shu-Xin. Climate adaptation in industry: a review of research progress[J]. Climate Change Research, 2024, 20(6): 721-735.

图/表 3

表1 气候因素对制造业的影响及适应对策

Table 1 Impacts of climate factors on the manufacturing industry and adaptation countermeasures

表2 气候因素对采矿业的影响及适应对策

Table 2 Impacts of climate factors on the mining industry and adaptation countermeasures

表3 气候因素对电力行业的影响及适应对策

Table 3 Impacts of climate factors on the power industry and adaptation countermeasures

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