气候变化对冰冻圈水文影响研究综述

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2024.230

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2025, Vol. 21 ›› Issue (1): 1-21.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2024.230

• 创刊20周年纪念专栏 • 上一篇下一篇

气候变化对冰冻圈水文影响研究综述

丁永建¹^,²^,³^,⁴(), 张世强⁵^,⁶(), 陈仁升⁷^,⁴, 秦甲¹^,³^,⁴, 赵求东⁷^,²^,³^,⁴, 刘俊峰⁷^,⁴, 阳勇⁷^,⁴, 何晓波¹^,³^,⁴, 苌亚平¹^,³^,⁴, 上官冬辉¹^,²^,³^,⁴, 韩添丁¹^,³^,⁴, 吴锦奎⁷^,³^,⁴, 李向应⁵^,⁶

1 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院冰冻圈科学与冻土工程全国重点实验室，兰州 730000
2 中国-巴基斯坦地球科学研究中心，伊斯兰堡 45320，巴基斯坦
3 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院唐古拉山冰冻圈与环境西藏自治区野外科学观测研究站，兰州 730000
4 中国科学院大学，北京 100044
5 西北大学陕西省地表系统与环境承载力重点实验室，西安 710027
6 西北大学城市与环境学院，西安 710027
7 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院干旱区生态安全与可持续发展全国重点实验室，兰州 730000

收稿日期:2024-08-29 修回日期:2024-09-14 出版日期:2025-01-30 发布日期:2024-12-26
通讯作者: 张世强，男，教授，zhangsq@nwu.edu.cn
作者简介:丁永建，男，研究员，dyj@lzb.ac.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(42330512);国家自然科学基金(42171028);甘肃省科技重大专项计划(22ZD6FA005)

A review of the impacts of climate change on cryospheric hydrological processes

DING Yong-Jian¹^,²^,³^,⁴(), ZHANG Shi-Qiang⁵^,⁶(), CHEN Ren-Sheng⁷^,⁴, QIN Jia¹^,³^,⁴, ZHAO Qiu-Dong⁷^,²^,³^,⁴, LIU Jun-Feng⁷^,⁴, YANG Yong⁷^,⁴, HE Xiao-Bo¹^,³^,⁴, CHANG Ya-Ping¹^,³^,⁴, SHANGGUAN Dong-Hui¹^,²^,³^,⁴, HAN Tian-Ding¹^,³^,⁴, WU Jin-Kui⁷^,³^,⁴, LI Xiang-Ying⁵^,⁶

1 National Key Laboratory of Cryosphere Science and Frozen Soil Engineering, Northwest China Ecological Environment and Resource Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
2 China Pakistan Earth Science Research Center, Islamabad 45320, Pakistan
3 Xizang Autonomous Region Tanggula Mountain Cryosphere and Environment Field Scientific Observation and Research Station, Northwest China Ecological Environment and Resource Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
4 University of Chinese Academy Sciences, Beijing 100044, China
5 Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Earth Surface System and Environmental Carrying Capacity, Northwest University, Xi’an 710027, China
6 College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Northwest University, Xi’an 710027, China
7 National Key Laboratory of Ecological Security and Sustainable Development in Arid Regions, Northwest China Ecological Environment and Resource Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China

Received:2024-08-29 Revised:2024-09-14 Online:2025-01-30 Published:2024-12-26

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

冰冻圈水文过程对气候变化的响应及其影响已成为全球变化研究的热点问题之一。从全球尺度看，冰川的物质损失量（即冰川冰的融水量）2000—2019年整体表现为(48±16)~(57.6±13) Gt/(10 a)的加速趋势，但不同区域差异较大。从流域尺度看，不同流域冰川融水对气候变化的响应程度各异，主要取决于不同流域冰川规模大小及不同规模冰川的组成特征。尽管对全球不同冰川区的冰川融水未来变化趋势，尤其拐点出现时间的认识仍有所差异，但对于冰川融水空间变化整体格局存在共识，即未来全球冰川融水的变化趋势受控于冰盖及高纬度大型冰川的变化速率。全球变暖导致融雪期间径流年内分配出现明显变化，表现为流域融雪期明显提前，提前的日数主要集中在20 d以内，其次是消融早期的融雪径流明显增加，峰值流量到达时间提前。预估未来雨雪比增加将导致积雪储量减少，同时增加升华量，进一步强化融雪径流的提前时间，导致流域融雪径流贡献减少。气候变化通过多种方式影响多年冻土水文过程，表现在下垫面水文效应、活动层径流调蓄作用和多年冻土层上水变化三方面。在下垫面水文效应方面，地表冻融作用的加强、热融喀斯特的扩张和活动层加深，直接影响地表产汇流过程和能力，进而影响地表径流的年内分配；在活动层径流调蓄方面，活动层变化不仅影响地表径流过程，也影响活动层内垂直和水平方向的壤中流，更影响多年冻土层上水的补给和径流能力，更重要的是活动层的冻融及深度变化，对上述水文过程起到年内到长期的水文调节作用；在多年冻土层上水变化方面，通过各种方法获得的结果可以得出这样的认识，即多年冻土退化已经或多或少对地下径流产生了影响，这种影响的突出表现是多年冻土退化对河流的直接补给作用，且补给的数量似不可忽视，有些流域甚至达到一定量级。

关键词: 气候变化, 冰冻圈水文, 冰川, 积雪, 冻土

Abstract:

The response of cryospheric hydrological processes to climate change, and its impacts has become a key issue in global change research. On a global scale, the mass loss of glaciers (i.e., the amount of meltwater from glaciers) has shown an accelerating trend over the past 20 years, ranging from (48±16) to (57.6±13) Gt/(10 a), while significant regional differences exist. At the watershed scale, the response of glacier meltwater to climate change varies among different watersheds, primarily depending on the size of the glaciers within each watershed and the compositional characteristics of glaciers of varying sizes. Although there are still differences in understanding the future trends of glacier meltwater across various glacier regions, particularly regarding the timing of critical inflection points, there is a consensus on the overall pattern of spatial changes in glacier meltwater. The future trend in global glacier meltwater is expected to be controlled by the rate of change in ice sheets and large glaciers at high latitudes. Global warming has led to significant changes in the intra-annual distribution of runoff during the snowmelt period, with a notable advance in the timing of snowmelt in most watersheds by up to 20 days. Additionally, early snowmelt runoff has significantly increased, with peak flow occurring earlier. It is projected that an increase in the rain-to-snow ratio in the future will lead to a reduction in snowpack storage, while simultaneously increasing sublimation, further advancing the timing of snowmelt runoff and reducing its contribution to watershed runoff. Climate change affects permafrost hydrological processes in several ways, including changes in the hydrological effects of the underlying surface, the runoff regulation function of the active layer, and variations in the supra-permafrost water. In terms of the hydrological effects of the underlying surface, enhanced freeze-thaw cycles, the expansion of thermokarst, and the deepening of the active layer directly impact surface runoff generation and flow processes, thereby affecting the intra-annual distribution of surface runoff. Regarding the runoff regulation function of the active layer, changes in the active layer not only influence surface runoff processes but also affect vertical and horizontal subsurface flow within the active layer, as well as the recharge and runoff generation capacity of the supra-permafrost water. The most important aspect is that the freeze-thaw dynamic and depth variation of the active layer play a role in regulating hydrological processes both within the year and over the long term. In terms of supra-permafrost water changes, various studies have shown that permafrost degradation has already impacted subsurface runoff to some extent, with the most significant effect being the direct contribution of permafrost degradation to river flow. In some watersheds, this contribution even reaches a substantial magnitude. The role of cryosphere hydrology at the watershed scale mainly manifests in three aspects: water source conservation, runoff replenishment, and hydrological regulation. Climate change has led to significant changes in the elements of the cryosphere, which in turn have altered the watershed functions of cryosphere hydrology. However, these changes vary greatly across different watersheds.

Key words: Climate change, Cryospheric hydrological process, Glacier, Snow, Permafrost

丁永建, 张世强, 陈仁升, 秦甲, 赵求东, 刘俊峰, 阳勇, 何晓波, 苌亚平, 上官冬辉, 韩添丁, 吴锦奎, 李向应. 气候变化对冰冻圈水文影响研究综述[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2025, 21(1): 1-21.

DING Yong-Jian, ZHANG Shi-Qiang, CHEN Ren-Sheng, QIN Jia, ZHAO Qiu-Dong, LIU Jun-Feng, YANG Yong, HE Xiao-Bo, CHANG Ya-Ping, SHANGGUAN Dong-Hui, HAN Tian-Ding, WU Jin-Kui, LI Xiang-Ying. A review of the impacts of climate change on cryospheric hydrological processes[J]. Climate Change Research, 2025, 21(1): 1-21.

图/表 8

图1 伦道夫冰川编目（RGI）划分的19个全球分区冰川物质变化率注： 19个区域中，2、5、9、17细分为东、西、南、北4个部分。年冰川物质损失量由圆盘界定的内部楔形区域表示，该楔形将陆地末端（浅灰色）和海洋末端（浅蓝色）冰川物质损失量的贡献分开。圆盘底部的时间轴上显示了年冰川表面高程的变化（单位为m/a）和区域数据覆盖情况[17]。

Fig. 1 The mass change rates of glaciers in the 19 global regions classified by the Randolph Glacier Inventory (RGI)

图2 乌鲁木齐河源冰川径流的年际及季节变化

Fig. 2 Inter-annual and seasonal variations of glacier runoff from the source of the Urumqi River

图3 不同RCP情景下全球的年冰川净物质损失预估结果注：实线表示多模型多气候模式集合的中位数，阴影表示±1倍标准差，为清晰起见，仅对RCP2.6和RCP8.5显示。全球图中的虚线表示所有区域集合中位数的总和[23]。

Fig. 3 Estimated global annual glacier net mass loss under different RCP scenarios

图4 全球融雪径流的空间变化[38,40????????-49]

Fig. 4 Spatial variations of global snowmelt runoff[38,40???????? -49]

图5 多年冻土活动层水文过程示意图

Fig. 5 Schematic diagram of the hydrological processes in the active layer of permafrost

图6 不同丰枯水年份多年冻土活动层不同深度土壤含水量的变化及对降雨响应过程（疏勒河上游山区流域）注：浅层为0~10 cm，深层为 70~80 cm，根据文献[79,125]修改。

Fig. 6 Changes in soil moisture at different depths of the active layer of permafrost in years of high and low water levels, and the response process to rainfall (Shule River upper mountainous basin)

图7 气候变化背景下多年冻土退化对流域水文过程的影响概念图(a)冻土退化前后的河流水系、湖塘、冻土活动层水文变化，(b)未来情景下冻土活动层及热融湖塘水变化，(c)冻土退化对径流年内变化过程的影响

Fig. 7 Conceptual diagram of the impact of permafrost degradation on watershed hydrological processes under climate change. (a) Hydrological changes in river systems, lakes, and the permafrost active layer before and after permafrost degradation, (b) water changes in the permafrost active layer and thermokarst lakes under future scenarios, (c) impact of permafrost degradation on the intra-annual variation of runoff

图8 祁连山疏勒河流域1985年前后的径流过程线差异注：本图修改自文献[158]。

Fig. 8 Differences in runoff process before and after 1985 in the Shule River basin of the Qilian Mountains

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气候变化对冰冻圈水文影响研究综述

A review of the impacts of climate change on cryospheric hydrological processes

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