从IPCC看全球盘点中的关键科学问题及其对中国的启示

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2024.156

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2024, Vol. 20 ›› Issue (6): 736-746.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2024.156

所属专题： COP28与全球盘点专栏

• COP28与全球盘点专栏 • 上一篇下一篇

从IPCC看全球盘点中的关键科学问题及其对中国的启示

陆春晖¹^,²(), 袁佳双¹, 黄磊¹, 张永香¹

1 中国气象局国家气候中心，北京 100081
2 天津市气候中心，天津 300074

收稿日期:2024-06-27 修回日期:2024-09-24 出版日期:2024-11-30 发布日期:2024-11-12
作者简介:陆春晖，男，研究员，luchh@cma.gov.cn
基金资助:
中国气象局重点创新团队“气候变化检测与应对”(CMA2022ZD03);中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2023J010)

Key scientific issues in the Global Stocktake from the perspective of IPCC and their implications for China

LU Chun-Hui¹^,²(), YUAN Jia-Shuang¹, HUANG Lei¹, ZHANG Yong-Xiang¹

1 National Climate Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
2 Tianjin Climate Centre, Tianjin 300074, China

Received:2024-06-27 Revised:2024-09-24 Online:2024-11-30 Published:2024-11-12

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）完成了第六次评估周期（AR6）的所有评估内容，发布的综合报告《气候变化2023》为《巴黎协定》下首次全球盘点提供了坚实的科学支撑，形成了指导全球气候治理的“阿联酋共识”。当前，IPCC和全球盘点都进入一个新的周期，并且两者的工作安排与我国“双碳”目标之一“2030年前实现碳达峰”的时间线也基本吻合。为了更好地发挥中国在全球气候治理中的引领作用，从科学上赢得国际气候治理主动权，文中从IPCC AR6的主要评估成果以及第七次评估周期的未来规划出发，梳理了IPCC科学评估中与全球盘点密切相关的前沿科学问题，提出科学推进能源结构转型，关注能源气候安全保障；高度重视非二氧化碳气体的评估和减排；加强适应行动，推进适应型城市建设；关注气候临界点，积极应对极端气候新挑战等重要启示。并从气候变化减缓、适应和自然科学基础领域提出了未来发展建议，以期为我国全面参与新一轮的IPCC气候变化评估和全球气候治理提供参考。

关键词: 全球盘点, 气候变化评估, 全球气候治理

Abstract:

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has accomplished all the assessment reports of the sixth assessment cycle (AR6). The synthesis report “Climate Change 2023” offers solid scientific support for the first Paris Agreement Global Stocktake, forming the “United Arab Emirates (UAE) Consensus” that guides global climate governance. Currently, both the IPCC and the Global Stocktake have embarked on a new cycle, and their work arrangements also basically coincide with the timeline of China’s “dual carbon” goals of “achieving carbon peak before 2030”. To better exert China’s leading role in global climate governance and gain the initiative in international climate governance from a scientific perspective, this paper commences from the major assessment achievements of the IPCC AR6 and the future planning of the AR7, combs through the cutting-edge scientific issues closely related to the Global Stocktake in the IPCC scientific assessment, and puts forward important insights such as scientifically promoting the transformation of the energy structure, paying attention to the security of energy and climate; highly valuing the assessment and reduction of non-CO₂ gases; strengthening adaptation actions, promoting the construction of adaptive cities; paying attention to climate tipping points, actively responding to new challenges of extreme climates, etc. It also presents development suggestions for the future in the fields of climate change mitigation, adaptation, and the natural science foundation. It is hoped to provide reference for our country to fully participate in the new round of IPCC climate change assessment and global climate governance.

Key words: Global Stocktake, Assessment of climate change, Global climate governance

陆春晖, 袁佳双, 黄磊, 张永香. 从IPCC看全球盘点中的关键科学问题及其对中国的启示[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2024, 20(6): 736-746.

LU Chun-Hui, YUAN Jia-Shuang, HUANG Lei, ZHANG Yong-Xiang. Key scientific issues in the Global Stocktake from the perspective of IPCC and their implications for China[J]. Climate Change Research, 2024, 20(6): 736-746.

图/表 4

图1 IPCC第七次评估周期方案及产品

Fig. 1 Programs and products in the seventh cycle of IPCC assessment

表1 IPCC AR7中与全球盘点密切相关的关键科学问题

Table 1 Key scientific issues from IPCC AR7 that are closely related to the Global Stocktake

图2 太阳能、陆上/海上风电、集中式太阳能和电动汽车使用成本演变注：引自IPCC AR6第三工作组报告决策者摘要的图3。

Fig. 2 The cost evolution of photovoltaics, onshore/offshore wind, concentrating solar power and electric vehicles

图3 全球气候临界点分布及可能触发各临界点的全球温升水平注：该图改编自McKay等[12]。

Fig. 3 Distribution of the global tipping points and warming levels that may trigger the tipping point

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从IPCC看全球盘点中的关键科学问题及其对中国的启示

Key scientific issues in the Global Stocktake from the perspective of IPCC and their implications for China

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