青海湖水位波动对气候暖湿化情景的响应及其机理研究

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2019.243

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用1961—2015年青海湖水位资料及其流域气温、降水量、蒸发量等气象观测资料,高原季风、西风环流气候等指数及植被数据,分析青海湖水位波动的基本特征,揭示高原季风、西风环流、植被覆盖、径流以及冻土退化对湖泊水位波动的影响机理,建立基于水量平衡的青海湖水位变化的定量评估模型。研究表明：2004年前后,青海湖水位出现由降到升的突变,自2005年以来持续回升;水位波动具有8 a和21 a的显著性周期;全球变暖背景下高原季风增强、西风环流趋弱、气候趋于暖湿、流域植被恢复、冻土退化和径流量显著增大,引起了2005年以来青海湖水位的持续回升。基于湖泊水量平衡原理建立的气候变化对青海湖水位影响定量评估模型,能够客观反映青海湖流域上年及当年降水量、流量和蒸发量对湖泊水位的效应。

关键词: 青海湖, 气候变化, 高原季风, 西风环流, 归一化植被指数, 冰川, 冻土

Abstract:

In the context of water level data of Qinghai Lake, meteorological observational data including temperature, precipitation and evaporation in its basin and climate indexes such as plateau monsoon and westerly circulation from 1961 to 2015, the characteristics of water level fluctuation of Qinghai Lake were analyzed, influence mechanism of plateau monsoon, westerly circulation, vegetation cover, runoff and permafrost degradation on water level fluctuation of lake level were revealed, the quantitative evaluation model on water level changes of Qinghai Lake were established. The water level in Qinghai Lake showed a mutation from descending to rising in 2004 and a continuous rising for 11 years after 2005. The fluctuation of water level had 8 years and 21 years significant periods. Plateau monsoon enhancement and westerly circulation weakening, climate warming and wetting, vegetation restoration, permafrost degradation and runoff increasing, all brought about water level rising continuously after 2005. Quantitative evaluation model based on water balance principle can reflect the influential effect on water level fluctuation caused by precipitation, runoff and evaporation in the previous and current year objectively.

Key words: Qinghai Lake, Climate change, Plateau monsoon, Westerly circulation, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Glacier, Permafrost

李林, 申红艳, 刘彩红, 校瑞香. 青海湖水位波动对气候暖湿化情景的响应及其机理研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2020, 16(5): 600-608.

LI Lin, SHEN Hong-Yan, LIU Cai-Hong, XIAO Rui-Xiang. Response of water level fluctuation to climate warming and wetting scenarios and its mechanism on Qinghai Lake[J]. Climate Change Research, 2020, 16(5): 600-608.

图/表 9

图1 青海湖流域地理分布图

Fig. 1 Geographical distribution of Qinghai Lake basin

图2 1961—2015年青海湖水位年际变化(a),M-K法突变检验(b),小波方差(c)以及小波系数变化曲线(d)

Fig. 2 Annual variation (a), M-K mutation test (b), wavelet variance diagram (c), and wavelet coefficient curve (d) for Qinghai Lake water level during 1961-2015

图3 1979—2015年高原夏季风指数（IPM）距平变化(a)及其M-K突变曲线(b)

Fig. 3 Anomaly variation of plateau summer monsoon index (IPM) (a) and its M-K mutation test curve (b) during 1979-2015

图4 1979—2015年区域夏季西风指数（IRW）距平变化

Fig. 4 Anomaly variation of regional summer west index (IRW) during 1979-2015

图5 1961—2015年青海湖流域平均气温距平变化(a),年降水量距平百分率变化(b)及M-K突变检验曲线(c)

Fig. 5 Variations of annual mean temperature anomaly (a), anomaly percentage of annual precipitation (b), M-K mutation test of annual precipitation in Qinghai Lake basin (c) during 1961-2015

图6 2000—2015年青海湖流域年平均NDVI距平变化

Fig. 6 Anomaly variation of annual mean NDVI in Qinghai Lake basin during 2000-2015

图7 1961—2015年青海湖流域0 cm地温距平变化

Fig. 7 Anomaly variation of 0 cm surface temperature during 1961-2015 in Qinghai Lake basin

图8 1961—2015年流域年平均流量距平百分率变化

Fig. 8 Anomaly variation of basin annual mean flow during 1961-2015

图9 1962—2015年青海湖水位波动实测值与评估值标准化对比曲线

Fig. 9 The contrast of the standard value about observation and evaluation on water level fluctuation in Qinghai Lake during 1962-2015

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