气候变化约束下中国电力系统低碳转型路径及策略

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2020.205

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为理清应对气候变化约束下推动电力系统转型中面临的挑战和潜力,形成有效精准抓手,研究从气候变化约束对电力需求的影响出发,系统梳理温升目标下电力系统转型路径相关研究,并通过综述在低碳转型过程中与电力系统密切相关的煤电退出问题、可再生能源并网问题以及电网优化问题提出相应政策建议。研究发现,温升约束下煤电规模需快速下降,可再生能源发电大规模并网及远距离输送将成为最显著的特征,气电将承担比现在更重大的责任,核电需抛开争议加速发展。加快完善市场化机制、严控煤电规模、着力提升能效、统筹加强灵活性资源管理以及优化跨区负荷管理应成为监管部门重点推进的方向。

关键词: 电力系统, 低碳转型, 气候变化

Abstract:

To clarify the challenges and potentials faced by the transition of the power system under the constraint of the climate change agreement to form an effective key, this paper starts from the impact analysis of climate change target on electricity demand, sorting out the pathway selection of power system transition systematically, then summarizes the issues related to power system transition process closely including the coal-fired power drop out, the renewable energy integration, the grid optimization, and proposes policy suggestions at last. The scale of coal-fired power needs to decline rapidly, the high-share integration and long-distance transmission of renewable energy generation will become the most significant features for the power system in the future, gas-fired power will assume greater responsibility than it is now, and nuclear power needs to abandon disputes to accelerate its development under the constraints of temperature rise target. Accelerating the improvement of market-oriented mechanisms, controlling the scale of coal-fired power capacity strictly, focusing on improving energy efficiency, coordinating and strengthening flexible resource management, and optimizing cross-regional load management should be the concerns of regulatory agencies in the future.

Key words: Power system, Low-carbon transition, Climate change

张文华, 闫庆友, 何钢, 袁家海. 气候变化约束下中国电力系统低碳转型路径及策略[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2021, 17(1): 18-26.

ZHANG Wen-Hua, YAN Qing-You, HE Gang, YUAN Jia-Hai. The pathway and strategy of China’s power system low-carbon transition under the constraints of climate change[J]. Climate Change Research, 2021, 17(1): 18-26.

图/表 1

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