考虑气候风险耦合影响的中长期电力资源规划

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2024.129

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

考虑气候风险对电力供应和需求的影响进行电力系统气候适应性规划研究十分重要且紧迫。文中从规划视角开展电力系统气候适应性研究，构建考虑气候风险耦合影响的中长期电力资源规划模型，通过电力资源优化配置提升电力系统气候适应水平。结果表明：考虑气候长期变化趋势的规划方案中可再生能源发电量占比在装机容量减少的情况下反而有所增加，可再生能源利用水平提升，系统年均总投资建设成本下降；而考虑极端天气气候风险的规划方案中可控电源年均装机容量和发电量增加，以支撑可再生能源消纳和系统安全稳定运行，可再生能源年均发电量略有减少，系统年均总投资建设成本增加。考虑气候风险耦合影响的电力规划方案能够统筹提升可再生能源利用和系统安全水平，推动可再生能源高质量发展。

关键词: 气候风险, 电源规划, 气候适应性, 极端天气, 电力系统

Abstract:

It is very important and urgent to conduct a study on climate adaptation planning for power systems considering the impacts of climate risks on power supply and demand. In this study, a study was carried out on power system climate adaptation from a planning perspective: a medium and long term power resource planning model that considers the coupled impacts of climate risks was constructed to enhance the level of power system climate adaptation through the optimal allocation of power resources. The results show that the proportion of renewable energy generation in the planning scheme that considers the long-term climate change trend would increase despite the reduction of installed capacity, and the utilization level of renewable energy increases. The average annual construction investment would reduce. Under the planning scenario that considers the climate risk of extreme weather, the average annual installed capacity and generation capacity of controllable power sources would increase to support the integration of renewable energy and the safe and stable operation of power system, and the average annual generation capacity of renewable energy slightly decreases. And the average annual construction investment of the system would increase. The power planning scheme that takes into account the coupled impacts of climate risk can improve the utilization of renewable energy and system security in an integrated manner, and promote the high-quality development of renewable energy.

Key words: Climate risks, Power resource planning, Climate adaptation, Extreme weather, Power system

袁家海, 牟琪林, 张浩楠, 赵艺莹, 张健. 考虑气候风险耦合影响的中长期电力资源规划[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2024, 20(5): 624-635.

YUAN Jia-Hai, MOU Qi-Lin, ZHANG Hao-Nan, ZHAO Yi-Ying, ZHANG Jian. Medium and long term power resource planning considering the coupled impact of climate risks[J]. Climate Change Research, 2024, 20(5): 624-635.

图/表 10

图1 气候风险对电源规划的影响机制

Fig. 1 Mechanism of climate risks impacts on power resource planning

图2 有效容量系数评估结果注：虚线表示不考虑气候变化影响的常规规划情景下的等效容量系数。

Fig. 2 Effective capacity factor assessment results

表1 关键年份成本参数

Table 1 Cost parameters for key years

表2 极寒天气约束下有关参数

Table 2 Parameters under extreme cold weather constraints

图3 S1常规情景下规划结果

Fig. 3 Planning results in the S1 conventional scenario

图4 S2情景下规划结果

Fig. 4 Planning results in the S2 scenario

图5 S2和S1情景可再生能源发电量占比对比

Fig. 5 Comparison of the share of renewable energy generation between the S2 and S1 scenarios

图6 可调节电源装机容量差值（S3减S2）

Fig. 6 Change in installed capacity of adjustable power supply (S3 minus S2)

图7 各类电源发电量差值（S3减S2）

Fig. 7 Change in power generation from various sources (S3 minus S2)

图8 可调节电源投资建设成本差值（S3减S2）

Fig. 8 Value of change in construction cost of investment in adjustable power supply (S3 minus S2)

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