气候变化背景下中国滑坡灾害人口风险评估

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2021.154

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2022, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (2): 166-176.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2021.154

气候变化背景下中国滑坡灾害人口风险评估

王霞¹^,²(), 王瑛¹^,²(), 林齐根³, 李宁¹^,², 张馨仁¹^,², 周笑影¹^,²

1 北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室,北京 100875
2 应急管理部-教育部减灾与应急管理研究院,北京 100875
3 南京信息工程大学地理科学学院/灾害风险管理研究院,南京 210044

收稿日期:2021-08-04 修回日期:2021-10-03 出版日期:2022-03-30 发布日期:2021-12-28
通讯作者: 王瑛
作者简介:王霞,女,博士研究生, wxia@mail.bnu.edu.cn。
基金资助:
第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究(2019QZKK0906);第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究(2019QZKK0606)

Projection of China landslide disasters population risk under climate change

WANG Xia¹^,²(), WANG Ying¹^,²(), LIN Qi-Gen³, LI Ning¹^,², ZHANG Xin-Ren¹^,², ZHOU Xiao-Ying¹^,²

1 Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
2 Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Emergency Management and Ministry of Education, Beijing 100875, China
3 Institute for Disaster Risk Management/School of Geographical Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China

Received:2021-08-04 Revised:2021-10-03 Online:2022-03-30 Published:2021-12-28
Contact: WANG Ying

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

中国是世界上滑坡灾害造成人口伤亡较严重的国家。受气候变化影响,极端降水频率与强度的增加会提高滑坡灾害的人口风险。文中将不同RCPs情景多个模式的未来降水数据和SSPs情景下的未来人口数据相结合,构建滑坡灾害人口风险评估模型,评估气候变化背景下的中国滑坡灾害人口风险。研究发现,气候变化下中国滑坡灾害的危险性呈上升趋势,预估21世纪中期（2031—2060年）RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下中国滑坡灾害高危险区面积相较于基准时期（1970—2000年）将分别增长5.5%和7.9%。其中,青藏高原地区增长最为显著。中国未来滑坡灾害的人口风险呈现先增长后下降的趋势,RCP8.5/SSP3情景较RCP4.5/SSP2情景上升更多,预计21世纪中期滑坡灾害年均伤亡人口将由基准时期的639人增加至956人;21世纪末期（2071—2100年),由于滑坡灾害暴露人口下降,年均伤亡人口将减至737人。未来浙江、广东、四川、云南和西藏省始终是滑坡灾害伤亡人口最高的省份,需加大防范措施,降低滑坡灾害人口风险。

关键词: 气候变化, 极端降水, 滑坡灾害, 人口风险, 中国

Abstract:

China is a country in the world where landslides disasters have caused serious casualties. Due to the impact of climate change, the occurrence of extreme precipitation frequency and intensity is projected to be on the rise, which will increase the population risk of landslide disasters. This paper coupled the future precipitation data of multiple models in different RCPs scenarios and the population data in SSPs scenario into an established landslides risk model to quantitatively assess the projected changes in China landslides population risk. The results showed that compared with the baseline period (1970-2000), the high-landslide-hazard zones is projected to increase by 5.5% and 7.9%, respectively under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios in the middle 21st century (2031-2060). The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has the most significant growth. The population risk of landslides disasters in China shows increasing trend and then decreases under the RCPs-SSPs scenarios. Compared with the RCP4.5/SSP2, the average annually casualty of landslide disasters will increase from 639 to 956 under the RCP8.5/SSP3 in the middle 21st century. In the end of the 21st century (2071-2100), due to the decline of exposure population, the average annual casualties of landslide disasters will decrease to 737. In the future, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Sichuan, Yunnan, and Tibet will always be the provinces with the highest casualties of landslides disaster. Therefore, it is necessary to increase risk prevention measures to reduce the population risk of landslides disaster.

Key words: Climate change, Extreme precipitation, Landslides disaster, Population risk, China

王霞, 王瑛, 林齐根, 李宁, 张馨仁, 周笑影. 气候变化背景下中国滑坡灾害人口风险评估[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2022, 18(2): 166-176.

WANG Xia, WANG Ying, LIN Qi-Gen, LI Ning, ZHANG Xin-Ren, ZHOU Xiao-Ying. Projection of China landslide disasters population risk under climate change[J]. Climate Change Research, 2022, 18(2): 166-176.

图/表 10

表1 主要数据来源

Table 1 Main data sources

表2 本文选取的12个气候模式基本信息

Table 2 Basic information of 12 climate models used in this study

图1 气候变化情景下中国滑坡灾害人口风险评估流程图

Fig. 1 Flow chart of population risk assessment of landslides disasters in China under climate change scenarios

表3 3种降水数据集对比分析

Table 3 Comparative analysis of three precipitation data sets

图2 气候变化情景下中国滑坡危险性空间分布（多模式集合平均）(a)基准时期（1970—2000年）,(b) RCP8.5情景（2071—2100年）

Fig. 2 Spatial distribution of landslides hazards in China under climate change scenario. (a) Baseline period (1970-2000), (b) RCP8.5 (2071-2100)

图3 RCP8.5情景下21世纪末期相较于基准时期滑坡危险性变化空间分布（多模式集合平均）(a)中国;(b)广东省;(c)山西省;(d)西藏自治区

Fig. 3 Spatial distribution of changes in landslides hazard levels at the end of the 21st century compared to the baseline period under the RCP8.5 scenario (multi-model ensemble average). (a) China, (b) Guangdong province, (c) Shanxi province, (d) Tibet

图4 1950—2018年各省滑坡灾害年均伤亡人口(a)和滑坡灾害年均人口脆弱性指数(b)

Fig. 4 The average annual casualties (a) and the average annual population vulnerability index (b) of landslides disasters in various provinces during 1950-2018

图5 气候变化情景下中国滑坡灾害年均伤亡人口注：图中实线为多模式模拟结果集合平均;阴影范围的上下限分别为多模式模拟的伤亡人口最高值和最低值。

Fig. 5 The average annual casualties of landslides disasters under climate change scenarios. (Solid line: ensemble average casualties of multi-models; upper and lower limits of shadow range: maximum and minimum casualties of multi-models)

图6 气候变化情景下中国滑坡灾害年均伤亡人口占全国90%的省份（多模式集合平均）(a) RCP4.5/SSP2情景;(b) RCP8.5/SSP3情景

Fig. 6 Provinces in China with 90% of annual average casualties of landslides under RCP4.5/SSP2 scenario (a) and RCP8.5/SSP3 scenario (b)

图7 21世纪末期各省滑坡灾害年均伤亡人口变化（RCP4.5/SSP2情景）

Fig. 7 Changes in the annual average casualties of landslides disasters in various provinces at the end of the 21st century (RCP4.5/SSP2 scenario)

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气候变化背景下中国滑坡灾害人口风险评估

Projection of China landslide disasters population risk under climate change

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