中国近海光伏发电潜力预估及驱动因子分析

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2025.043

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于CMIP6资料，在SSP1-2.6和SSP5-8.5两种典型情景下，预估了近未来（2021—2060年）和远未来（2061—2100年）中国近海的光伏发电潜力相较于历史时期（1975—2014年）的变化，并分析了气候变化对未来光伏发电的潜在影响。结果表明，近未来时期，两种情景下的光伏发电潜力都呈现出在研究区北部增长、南部减少的趋势。SSP1-2.6情景下的光伏发电效率（PVP）最大增幅预估将超3%，约是SSP5-8.5情景下的1.8倍。远未来时期，SSP1-2.6情景下PVP转变为几乎整个研究区域都呈现出增长态势。从月变化来看，SSP1-2.6情景下近未来和远未来的全年PVP都将增加，最大增幅均出现在2月，分别为2.18%和4.20%。SSP5-8.5情景下两个时期PVP都在6—9月呈现出负变化，8月减少最明显。地表向下短波辐射（RSDS）对PVP变化的影响大于气温，是驱动PVP变化的主要原因。研究结果将为海上太阳能开发利用及能源规划管理提供重要参考。

关键词: 气候变化, 中国近海, 光伏发电, 发电潜力

Abstract:

Based on the CMIP6 dataset, the changes in China’s offshore photovoltaic power potential (PVP) were projected in the near-future (2021-2060) and far-future (2061-2100) compared to the historical period (1975-2014) under two typical scenarios, SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, and the potential impacts of climate change on future PVP were analyzed. The results are as followed. In the near-future period, the PVP potential under both scenarios shows a pattern of increasing in the northern part of the study area and decreasing in the southern part. The maximum increase in PVP under the SSP1-2.6 scenario is projected to increase by more than 3%, which is about 1.8 times higher than that under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. In the far-future period, the PVP shows an increase in almost the entire study area under the SSP1-2.6 scenario. In terms of monthly changes, PVP will increase throughout the year under the SSP1-2.6 scenario for both the near- and far- future, with the largest increases occurring in February 2.18% and 4.20%, respectively. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, both periods show negative changes in PVP from June to September, with the most significant decrease in August. The effect of surface downwelling shortwave radiation on PVP changes is greater than that of temperature and is the main cause of PVP changes. The results of the study provide an important reference for offshore solar energy development and utilization as well as energy planning and management.

Key words: Climate change, Offshore China, Photovoltaic power generation, Power generation potential

曾颖婷, 唐振飞, 吴滨, 周明珠. 中国近海光伏发电潜力预估及驱动因子分析[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2025, 21(6): 830-838.

ZENG Ying-Ting, TANG Zhen-Fei, WU Bin, ZHOU Ming-Zhu. Estimation of China’s offshore photovoltaic power generation potential and analysis of driving factors[J]. Climate Change Research, 2025, 21(6): 830-838.

图/表 6

表1 本研究选取的9个全球气候模式的基本信息

Table 1 Basic information of the 9 global climate models

图1 1975—2014年中国近海多年平均辐射、气温和风速的模拟场相对于观测场（ERA5）的泰勒图(a) QM偏差订正前，(b) QM偏差订正后

Fig. 1 Taylor diagrams of the simulated fields relative to the observed fields (ERA5) for the multi-year average radiation, temperature, and wind speed over the offshore China from 1975 to 2014. (a) Before QM bias correction, (b) after QM bias correction

图2 SSP1-2.6和SSP5-8.5情景下近未来（a、b）和远未来（c、d）相对于历史时期的年平均光伏发电效率（PVP）的变化

Fig. 2 Changes in annual average photovoltaic power potential (PVP) in the near future (a, b) and far future (c, d) relative to the historical period under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. (Black dots indicate significance tests passed at the 0.05 level)

图3 SSP1-2.6 (a)和SSP5-8.5 (b)情景下未来PVP相对于历史时期的多年平均月变化

Fig. 3 Monthly change in future PVP under the SSP1-2.6 (a) and SSP5-8.5 (b) scenarios relative to the multi-year average for the historical period

图4 SSP1-2.6和SSP5-8.5情景下近未来和远未来时期地表向下短波辐射贡献的PVP变化

Fig. 4 PVP changes contributed by surface downwelling shortwave radiation in near- and far-future under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios

图5 SSP1-2.6和SSP5-8.5情景下近未来和远未来时期近地表气温贡献的PVP变化

Fig. 5 PVP changes contributed by near-surface air temperature in near- and far-future under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios

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