气候变化多情景下缺水流域跨行业水权交易的水管理效应研究

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2025.025

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2025, Vol. 21 ›› Issue (6): 753-765.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2025.025

气候变化多情景下缺水流域跨行业水权交易的水管理效应研究

韩池¹^,², 温洪启³, 张书林⁴, 张俊龙¹^,²(), 李伟¹^,², 陈明帅⁵, 尤立⁶^,⁷

1 青岛大学环境与地理科学学院，青岛 266071
2 青岛市碳中和生态环境技术创新中心，青岛 266071
3 青岛市水务事业发展服务中心，青岛 266071
4 平度市水利水产局，青岛 266700
5 武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室，武汉 430072
6 中国科学院生态环境研究中心，北京 100085
7 工业废水无害化与资源化国家工程研究中心，北京 100085

收稿日期:2025-02-07 修回日期:2025-04-24 出版日期:2025-11-30 发布日期:2025-12-02
通讯作者: 张俊龙，男，副教授，zjunlong@qdu.edu.cn
作者简介:韩池，女，硕士研究生
基金资助:
水资源工程与调度全国重点实验室开放研究基金项目(2024SWG06);山东省自然科学基金(ZR2024ME242)

Effectiveness of cross-industry water rights trading on water management in water-deficient basins under multiple climate change scenarios

HAN Chi¹^,², WEN Hong-Qi³, ZHANG Shu-Lin⁴, ZHANG Jun-Long¹^,²(), LI Wei¹^,², CHEN Ming-Shuai⁵, YOU Li⁶^,⁷

1 College of Environmental and Geographical Sciences, Qingdao University, Qingdao 266071, China
2 Carbon Neutrality and Eco-Environmental Technology Innovation Center of Qingdao, Qingdao 266071, China
3 Qingdao Water Affairs Development and Service Center, Qingdao 266071, China
4 Pingdu Water Conservancy and Fisheries Bureau, Qingdao 266700, China
5 State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Management, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
6 Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085,China
7 National Engineering Research Center of Industrial Wastewater Detoxication and Resource Recovery, Beijing 100085, China

Received:2025-02-07 Revised:2025-04-24 Online:2025-11-30 Published:2025-12-02

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

开展气候数据校准、自然径流重建和植被需水量模拟，开发多气候变化情景下的随机多目标水权交易决策模型，定量评估未来（2026—2055年）气候变化条件下青岛市大沽河流域跨行业水权交易的水管理效应。研究结果表明：(1)年均天然径流量、单位生产规模种植业需水量与单位面积湿地需水量在SSP1-2.6情景下最多，SSP5-8.5情景下最少。(2)多气候变化情景下，相比于非交易机制，水权交易机制能有效缓解流域缺水问题；从流域整体视角看，SSP5-8.5情景下水权交易机制缓解缺水最明显，交易后缺水量较交易前减少7.05%~14.59%；从行业上看，交易机制使企业缺水量显著减少，种植业、渔业及畜牧业次之；从地区上讲，流域内4个县（莱西、平度、即墨、胶州）缺水量均减少，莱西缺水量显著减少，多气候情景下缺水量平均减少6.90%~10.91%，同时，71%的河区缺水量减少，29%的河区缺水量增多。(3)多气候变化情景下，水权交易使得系统供水总量、系统效益、效率平均增加0.72%~0.90%、10.26%~11.05%、9.48% ~10.06%；交易机制在SSP5-8.5情景下供水总量、系统效益、系统效率提升最明显。

关键词: 气候变化, 共享社会经济路径（SSP）, 水资源适应性管理, 水权交易, 不确定性

Abstract:

This study conducted climate data calibration, natural runoff reconstruction, and vegetation water requirement simulation. And a stochastic multi-objective water rights trading decision-making model was developed under multiple climate change scenarios to quantitatively assess effectiveness of cross-sectorial water rights trading on water management system in the Dagu River basin under climate change conditions in the future (2026—2055). The results are as follows: (1) Annual average natural runoff, water demand per unit of production scale in planting industry, and water demand per unit area of wetlands are the highest under SSP1-2.6 scenario and the lowest under SSP5-8.5 scenario. (2) Under multiple climate change scenarios, water rights trading mechanism is more effective than non-trading mechanism in alleviating water scarcity issues in river basins. From perspective of entire basin, water rights trading mechanism shows the most significant effect on alleviating water shortage under SSP5-8.5 scenario, with water deficit decreasing by 7.05%-14.59% compared with non-trading system. From the industry perspective, trading mechanism results in the greatest reduction in water scarcity for enterprises, followed by agriculture, fisheries, and livestock industry. Regarding regions, water deficit decreases in all four counties within the basin, with the most significant reduction in Laixi, where the average water deficit decreases by 6.90%-10.91% under multiple climate change scenarios. Meanwhile, 71% of river sections experienced a reduction in water shortage, while 29% saw an increase. (3) Under multiple climate change scenarios, water rights trading increases total water supply, system benefits, and efficiency of system by 0.72%-0.90%, 10.26%-11.05%, and 9.48%-10.06%, respectively. Under SSP5-8.5 scenario, the trading mechanism brings about the most significant increase in total water supply, system benefits, and system efficiency.

Key words: Climate change, Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP), Water resources adaptive management, Water rights trading, Uncertainties

韩池, 温洪启, 张书林, 张俊龙, 李伟, 陈明帅, 尤立. 气候变化多情景下缺水流域跨行业水权交易的水管理效应研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2025, 21(6): 753-765.

HAN Chi, WEN Hong-Qi, ZHANG Shu-Lin, ZHANG Jun-Long, LI Wei, CHEN Ming-Shuai, YOU Li. Effectiveness of cross-industry water rights trading on water management in water-deficient basins under multiple climate change scenarios[J]. Climate Change Research, 2025, 21(6): 753-765.

图/表 10

图1 大沽河流域地理位置及相关信息

Fig. 1 Location and related information of Dagu River basin

表1 多气候变化情景下流域天然径流量、种植业单位生产规模需水量、单位面积湿地需水量

Table 1 Natural runoff of river basins, water demand per unit production scale of planting industry, and water demand per unit area of wetlands under multiple climate change scenarios

图2 不同机制及多种来水年型下的缺水量

Fig. 2 Water shortage under different mechanisms and various hydrological year types

图3 不同机制下各行业缺水量

Fig. 3 Water shortage of various industries under multiple mechanisms

图4 不同机制下各河区的缺水量

Fig. 4 Water shortage in each river region under different mechanisms

图5 不同机制下各县区的缺水量注：图中数值为缺水量，单位为106 m3。

Fig. 5 Water shortage in each county under different mechanisms

图6 不同机制下的系统总供水量

Fig. 6 Total water supply under different mechanisms

图7 用户持有水权量配置

Fig. 7 Allocation of users’ possessed water right

图8 不同机制下的系统总效益

Fig. 8 System benefits under different mechanisms

图9 不同机制下的系统效率

Fig. 9 System efficiency under different mechanisms

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气候变化多情景下缺水流域跨行业水权交易的水管理效应研究

Effectiveness of cross-industry water rights trading on water management in water-deficient basins under multiple climate change scenarios

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