Whole life cycle carbon emission and power generation structure transformation pathway planning of China’s power

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2023.177

Abstract

Abstract:

To evaluate the lifecycle carbon emission intensity of the power industry and analyze its peak emission pathway, a calculation model for the national and regional power grid lifecycle carbon emission factors had been proposed, at the same time, the lifecycle carbon emission intensity of power over the years and its influencing factors had been measured. Then, using scenario analysis, the lifecycle carbon emissions and its peak situation of the power industry from 2022 to 2060 under different power transformation scenarios had been analyzed. The results show that: (1) From 2011 to 2021, China had achieved certain results in transforming its power generation structure. The lifecycle carbon emission factor of the national power grid decreased from 763.94 to 557.73 g/(kW·h). However, the reduction in carbon emissions from clean energy generation was unable to offset the increase in carbon emissions from thermal power, resulting in the lifecycle carbon emissions of the power industry still growing at an average annual rate of 2.6%, increasing from 3.61 Gt to 4.68 Gt. (2) The transition to cleaner power generation and advancement in decarbonization technologies for coal power are important measures to reduce the lifecycle carbon emission intensity of the power industry. (3) Under the fast transition scenario, the baseline scenario, and the slow transition scenario, China’s lifecycle carbon emissions from power industry can reach the peak in 2025, 2027 and 2030, respectively, and the baseline scenario will have a peak of 5.205 Gt carbon emissions and 1.578 Gt carbon emissions in 2060, which is lower than the carbon absorption capacity of China’s natural ecosystems.

Key words: Carbon peaking, Whole life cycle, Carbon emission factor, Power generation structure, Scenario analysis

TIAN Pei-Ning, LIANG Xiao, GUAN Yu-Jie, ZHAO Yi-Xin, MAO Bao-Hua, XUE Ting. Whole life cycle carbon emission and power generation structure transformation pathway planning of China’s power[J]. Climate Change Research, 2024, 20(1): 97-106.

Figures/Tables 11

Table 1 Carbon emission factors for the whole life cycle of each power generation method

Fig. 1 Carbon emission factors and carbon emissions of the whole life cycle of power in 2011-2021

Fig. 2 Carbon emission factors of the whole life cycle of power in each province in 2021

Fig. 3 Impact of power generation structure on the whole life cycle carbon emission factors of power

Fig. 4 The impact of the decline in the whole life cycle carbon emission factors of each power on the whole life cycle carbon emission factors of power

Fig. 5 Power generation per capita and total power generation from 2010 to 2060

Table 2 Generation structure scenario setting %

Table 3 Coal power CCS technology development level setting

Table 4 Generation structure of different scenarios %

Fig. 6 Life-cycle carbon emission indicators for power under 3 scenarios

Table 5 Comparison of carbon peaking results for power from different literatures

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