Climate Change Research ›› 2019, Vol. 15 ›› Issue (6): 670-683.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2019.010

• Greenhouse Gas Emissions • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Study on low-carbon development path of urban transportation sector based on LEAP model—take Guangzhou as an example

Ying HUANG1,Hong-Xu GUO2(),Cui-Ping LIAO1,Dai-Qing ZHAO1   

  1. 1 Guangzhou Institute of Energy Conversion, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510640, China
    2 School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510090, China
  • Received:2019-01-10 Revised:2019-02-20 Online:2019-11-30 Published:2019-11-30
  • Contact: Hong-Xu GUO


Taking the city of Guangzhou as a case study, a Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP)-Guangzhou Transportation model was developed to simulate future energy consumption and CO2 emission trends during 2017-2050 under three scenarios: policy scenario (PS), low-carbon scenario (LCS), and green and low-carbon scenario (GLCS). Then the emission reduction potentials, the development direction and path of transportation sector were discussed. Results show that CO2 emission of transportation sector in Guangzhou will peak around 2035 under PS scenario, but with more stringent policies in the LCS and GLCS scenarios, the peak timing is expected to advance to 2025 and 2023, respectively. In order to promote the low-carbon development of urban transportation, it is necessary to develop railway and waterway transportation to form an integrated transportation system; fully implement the public transportation priority strategy to effectively control the number and the frequency of private cars; and promote the cleanliness of energy structure and the energy efficiency.

Key words: Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model, Low-carbon transportation, Scenario analysis, Development path, Guangzhou

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