ISSN 1673-1719
CN 11-5368/P
   Table of Content
  30 January 2024, Volume 20 Issue 1 Previous Issue    Next Issue
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Changes in Climate System
Analysis on interdecadal variation and the causes of compound extreme cold and rainfall events in spring in China   Collect
ZHOU Jing, SUN Yan, QI Ya-Jing
Climate Change Research. 2024, 20 (1): 1-9.   DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2023.075
Abstract ( 287 )   HTML ( 43 )     PDF (10230KB) ( 551 )  

Based on the daily minimum temperature data, precipitation data at 553 stations in China and ERA5 monthly reanalysis data from 1961 to 2020, the interdecadal variation characteristics and its possible causes of compound extreme cold and rainfall events in spring of China were explored. Results indicate that the compound extreme cold and rainfall events in spring exhibit a distribution pattern of more in the south and less in the north, with the highest frequency (more than 5 days per year on average) occurring in the Southwest and South China. The compound extreme cold and rainfall events in spring in the majority of regions in China have presented a decreasing trend in the past 60 years. In the late 1990s, there was a nationwide interdecadal mutation from more to less, with the most significant decreasing being in the monsoon region of southeastern China. Further analysis shows that the anomalous cyclonic circulation from northern China to the Bering Strait and the anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the northwest Pacific on the southeast of China are the two key circulation systems causing the interdecadal mutation.

Applicability evaluation and correction of CLDAS surface temperature products in permafrost region of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau   Collect
HU Jia-Yi, ZHAO Lin, WANG Chong, HU Guo-Jie, ZOU De-Fu, XING Zan-Pin, JIAO Meng-Di, QIAO Yong-Ping, LIU Guang-Yue, Du Er-Ji
Climate Change Research. 2024, 20 (1): 10-25.   DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2023.033
Abstract ( 224 )   HTML ( 12 )     PDF (8409KB) ( 257 )  

Land surface temperature (LST) is a crucial parameter to characterize the surface thermal state and conduct research on the surface hydrothermal and ecological processes. The available LST data in the permafrost region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau mainly include the observed data of land surface and shallow ground temperature, remote sensing derive data, model simulation data and reanalysis data. CLDAS dataset has a good performance in most regions of China. However, due to the lack of measured data in permafrost regions of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and insufficient consideration of the underlying surface of permafrost, the applicability of CLDAS in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau needs to be further evaluated. Based on the measured LST data of seven stations in the permafrost region, the CLDAS LST data from 2008 to 2018 were evaluated in different freeze-thaw periods and underlying surface types. The results showed significant errors between CLDAS and the measured values (bias=2.09℃, MAE=3.64℃, RMSE=4.67℃, R2=0.83), mainly performed that CLDAS overestimated the measured LST. The applicability of CLDAS LST is good in the thawing period, but poor in the freeze-thaw alternating period (MAE=3.78℃) and freezing period. And it’s better in the alpine desert and alpine desert steppe than that in alpine meadow. Therefore, a multiple stepwise regression correction model was established based on the influences of NDVI, NDSI, snow depth, elevation, slope, aspect and soil texture factors on LST. The correction model took the differences of underlying surface conditions into account and improved the simulation accuracy of CLDAS LST. The results show that the correction models constructed by freezing period, thawing period and alternating period separately performed better than a single model. The accuracy of corrected CLDAS LST by three-period models was significantly improved (bias=-0.11℃, MAE=2.42℃, RMSE=3.23℃, R2=0.89).

Impacts of Climate Change
Flood loss estimation by integrating social media sentiment and multi-source data under climate change background   Collect
WU Zhi-Xia, ZHENG Xia-Zhong, CHEN Yi-Jun, HUANG Shan, HU Wen-Li, DUAN Chen-Fei
Climate Change Research. 2024, 20 (1): 26-36.   DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2023.203
Abstract ( 214 )   HTML ( 14 )     PDF (4588KB) ( 260 )  

Based on social media text data, the flood loss estimation model (ISFRD) was constructed that combines the core factors causing flooding, disaster-bearing vectors and real-time sentiment data. First, text information related to flooding on the Sina Weibo platform was extracted based on natural language processing technology to achieve data preprocessing. Geolocation enrichment was then performed and the validity of the Weibo data was verified using the example of the exceptionally heavy rainfall in Henan province. Afterwards, loss estimation was made for several flood events in China based on a multi-source set of factors such as flood causation and sentiment, and the accuracy of the loss estimation was verified against the actual losses. The results are as follows. (1) In social media, the peak sentiment mutation points of heavy rainfall and flooding are mainly concentrated in June to August each year. Also, the peak sentiment change and the discussion of hot flood events have a strong synchronous relationship. (2) Flood losses have an inverse relationship with average sentiment, i.e., the lower the average sentiment value is, the more serious the disaster damage is in general. (3) The ISFRD flood damage model can effectively assess heavy rainfall and flooding events at the provincial (municipal) scale with different degrees of damage, and the estimation results have high accuracy (average accuracy>90%, MAE=27.04, RMSE=45.26). Under the increasingly complex climate environment, the model can provide a certain reference for rapid determination of flood damage, disaster prevention and mitigation, and public opinion guidance.

Analysis of the impact of severe drought in the upper Yangtze River basin on the hydroelectricity production of the Three Gorges Hydropower Station in 2022   Collect
LIU Zhe, WANG Fei, HAN Qin-Mei, JIANG Lu, SHI Pei-Jun
Climate Change Research. 2024, 20 (1): 37-47.   DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2023.157
Abstract ( 182 )   HTML ( 9 )     PDF (5608KB) ( 397 )  

High temporal resolution hydrologic data of the Three Gorges Hydropower Station were used to calculate high temporal resolution data of hydroelectricity production. Accordingly, the impact of severe drought in the Upper Yangtze River basin on hydroelectricity production of the Three Gorges Hydropower Station in 2022 was quantified. And, the mechanism of the impact of meteorological drought on hydropower power was analyzed by combining the precipitation data of meteorological stations in the confluence area. The results showed that the reduction of hydroelectricity production of the Three Gorges Hydropower Station in 2022 was mainly concentrated in July-November, which the total hydroelectricity production decreased by 24.110 billion kW·h (44.75%) compared with the normal condition. Among them, the decrease in hydroelectricity production was the largest in September, with hydroelectricity production decreased by 6.843 billion kW·h (61.05%) compared with normal condition. In 2022, the meteorological drought in July and August in the confluence area of the Three Gorges Hydropower Station quickly caused the hydrological drought. Meanwhile, the adjustment capacity of the Three Gorges Hydropower Station was weak from June to November, and the impact of hydrological drought on hydroelectricity production was strong. The meteorological drought that occurred in the confluence area of the Three Gorges Hydropower Station in July-August and the requirement for flood control storage capacity both had a strong impact on hydroelectricity production, and its function of “saving abundant and replenishment dry” had also been obviously adversely affected.

Adaptation to Climate Change
Prospect of climate risks management in China under the framework of UN Early Warning for All Initiative   Collect
MA Li-Juan, YUAN Jia-Shuang, HUANG Lei
Climate Change Research. 2024, 20 (1): 48-61.   DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2023.122
Abstract ( 244 )   HTML ( 25 )     PDF (2898KB) ( 395 )  

Climate is the natural environment that human beings depend on for survival, and it is also an important basic resource for the sustainable development of economy and society. However, the trend and extreme changes of climate will have an impact on the natural ecosystem, and most of the serious adverse effects will continue to spread and permeate the economic and social system, forming climate risks and bringing climate security problems to related industries, regions and fields. In the new normal of climate, increasingly extreme weather and climate event not only exacerbates the impact of single events, but also challenges disaster risk management in a “zero carbon” future. Early warning is an important tool for disaster risk reduction and adaptation to climate change. To this end, the United Nations has deepened the multi-hazard early warning system and proposed the Early Warning for All Initiative (EW4All). The goal is that every person in the world is protected by an early warning system by the end of 2027 in response to increasingly extreme weather and climate change.

This study systematically reviewed the development history of early warning domestically and abroad, and summarized the four stages of the international early warning system, namely, the stage of proposing early warning concept (1965 to 1989), the research stage (1990 to 1999), and the stage of single-hazard (2000 to early 2010s) and multi-early warning system development (mid-2010s to early 2022). Identified from the perspective of the development history of international early warning and the definition of “multi-hazard”, the EW4All is the climate change adaptation initiative launched by the United Nations in the context of climate change, which puts forward more targeted requirements for the comprehensive deepening development of multi-hazard early warning system. Its connotation has three levels: first, to establish early warning system in countries without it; second, to improve early warning system in countries where it is not yet adequate or where increasingly extreme weather and climate conditions make existing systems less effective; Third, to establish early warning capacity for climate risks that may exist in the process of low-carbon transition of the whole society.

Risk awareness, monitoring and warning, information dissemination, and emergence response are the four key elements of an early warning system, and strengthening the capacity of the entire international community in these four aspects is the basic approach to achieve the goal of EW4All. For countries that do not have early warning systems, it is necessary to rely on the joint efforts of the international community to help them establish early warning system as soon as possible according to the checklist of multi-hazard early warning system. However, for countries with insufficient early warning system, it is necessary to strengthen and improve the weak spots in the whole chain, and the most important thing is to upgrade the core technology for early warning. Based on the early warning services and climate risk assessments that have been carried out in China, this study proposes three priority directions for climate risk management in China under the framework of EW4All, combining the characteristics and impacts of the development of extreme weather and climate events in China under the background of climate change and the current situation and development model of early warning service in China, as well as the climate risks, early warning demands and technology gaps faced under the new normal of climate. First, to strengthen the scientific research on the mechanism of the occurrence and development of compounding extreme weather and climate events and on their prediction and early warning technologies, as well as research on the potential tipping elements in the human socio-economic system, to assess the potential cascading impacts and scales caused by extreme events and breakout of tipping elements, enhancing the capacity to prevent risks of new-type climate disasters through expanding the hazard types involved in existing multi-hazard early warning system. Second, to identify the climate risks that climate change may cause to sectors and regions during their green and low-carbon transformation and accelerate the construction of a national early warning platform for both climate and climate change scales for climate security, so as to improve the ability of the whole society to cope with climate risks. Third, to carry out international cooperation on multi-hazard early warning, and help countries that do not have or have insufficient early warning systems to establish or improve their early warning capabilities, focusing on clarifying the risks and levels of major climate disasters at regional and national levels, as well as the urgent needs of adapting to climate change, for providing various types of public goods for meteorological disaster prevention and reduction.

Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Research on the trend prediction and structure transfer of embodied carbon in China’s export trade   Collect
HU Jian-Bo, MAI Jun-Nan
Climate Change Research. 2024, 20 (1): 62-74.   DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2023.185
Abstract ( 201 )   HTML ( 12 )     PDF (1928KB) ( 291 )  

Based on the Lasso method of feature selection, the core indicators affecting the total amount and intensity of embodied carbon emissions (CO2) in China’s export trade are determined respectively, and the BO-BiLSTM model was constructed to predict the trend of total amount change and intensity evolution. At the same time, the Markov chain was used to further explore the structural transfer phenomenon of embodied carbon emissions in China’s export trade. The results are as follow. (1) From 2021 to 2035, the total amount of carbon emissions embodied in China’s export trade shows a trend of gradient reduction. It is expected to reach 1.98 Gt in 2030 and further decrease to 1.83 Gt in 2035. The expansion of export trade scale and the improvement of international economic and trade situation are the key influencing factors. (2) From 2021 to 2035, the embodied carbon emission intensity in China’s export trade has maintained a steady and declining trend. It is expected to drop to 0.91 t per CNY 10000 in 2030, which is 67% lower than that in 2005. The change of export trade structure and the increase of environmental regulation intensity are important driving factors. (3) From 2021 to 2035, the structure of embodied carbon emissions in China’s export trade still focuses on knowledge-intensive manufacturing industry, which has great potential for emission reductions, while capital-intensive service industry and capital-intensive manufacturing industry have the characteristics of long cycle of carbon emission reductions.

Working ideas of urban reduction of pollution and carbon emissions management: based on great inventory management system   Collect
ZHANG Gui-Chi, LI Xiao-Mei, YANG Feng, SUN Rui-Ling
Climate Change Research. 2024, 20 (1): 75-84.   DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2023.150
Abstract ( 137 )   HTML ( 10 )     PDF (1489KB) ( 227 )  

At present, China is in the critical period of comprehensive green and low carbon transformation of social economy. Under the requirements of reaching the target of carbon neutrality, urban reduction of pollution and carbon emissions needs to be promoted steadily, which actually has carried out many policy practices. The practices of major cities such as municipalities directly under the central government and sub-provincial cities on reduction of pollution and carbon emissions were analyzed, the results show that the collaborative mechanism of reduction of pollution and carbon emissions has been gradually established, the content of strategic planning has been gradually connected, and relevant innovation and pilot demonstration has been gradually carried out. However, insufficient grasp of emission data, lack of project access control, lack of practical measures, and the pressure of grass-roots supervision have become the main problems of promoting reduction of pollution and carbon emissions. The establishment of great inventory management system consisting of emission inventory, access inventory, project inventory, law enforcement inventory and demand inventory may promote urban collaborative governance of reduction of pollution and carbon emissions.

Potential risks of double-counting carbon emission reductions in environmental rights trading and countermeasures   Collect
MA Guo-Song, DUAN Mao-Sheng
Climate Change Research. 2024, 20 (1): 85-96.   DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2023.175
Abstract ( 318 )   HTML ( 26 )     PDF (5042KB) ( 486 )  

Environmental rights trading can help achieve carbon emission reduction targets at a lower cost and play an important role in achieving China’s carbon peaking and neutrality goals. Currently, various environmental rights trading mechanisms related to carbon emission reductions are operating in China. The cross-overlapping of these mechanisms and their imperfect accounting rule design may lead to a significant risk of double-counting of carbon mitigation benefits, where the same emission reduction benefit is used to achieve two or more mitigation targets, thereby affecting environmental integrity. This article has systematically reviewed the environmental rights trading mechanisms related to carbon mitigation in China and analyzed in detail the sources and mechanisms of the double-counting risk in environmental rights trading. It is suggested that in order to avoid the risk of double-counting of carbon emission reduction benefits, efforts should be made to strengthen top-level design and coordination between different mechanisms, including the establishment of a unified management platform, the enhancement of information sharing, the improvement of carbon emission statistics and accounting system, the clarification of the positioning and boundaries of various mechanisms, and the avoidance of the cross-overlapping of different mechanisms.

Whole life cycle carbon emission and power generation structure transformation pathway planning of China’s power   Collect
TIAN Pei-Ning, LIANG Xiao, GUAN Yu-Jie, ZHAO Yi-Xin, MAO Bao-Hua, XUE Ting
Climate Change Research. 2024, 20 (1): 97-106.   DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2023.177
Abstract ( 194 )   HTML ( 11 )     PDF (1799KB) ( 308 )  

To evaluate the lifecycle carbon emission intensity of the power industry and analyze its peak emission pathway, a calculation model for the national and regional power grid lifecycle carbon emission factors had been proposed, at the same time, the lifecycle carbon emission intensity of power over the years and its influencing factors had been measured. Then, using scenario analysis, the lifecycle carbon emissions and its peak situation of the power industry from 2022 to 2060 under different power transformation scenarios had been analyzed. The results show that: (1) From 2011 to 2021, China had achieved certain results in transforming its power generation structure. The lifecycle carbon emission factor of the national power grid decreased from 763.94 to 557.73 g/(kW·h). However, the reduction in carbon emissions from clean energy generation was unable to offset the increase in carbon emissions from thermal power, resulting in the lifecycle carbon emissions of the power industry still growing at an average annual rate of 2.6%, increasing from 3.61 Gt to 4.68 Gt. (2) The transition to cleaner power generation and advancement in decarbonization technologies for coal power are important measures to reduce the lifecycle carbon emission intensity of the power industry. (3) Under the fast transition scenario, the baseline scenario, and the slow transition scenario, China’s lifecycle carbon emissions from power industry can reach the peak in 2025, 2027 and 2030, respectively, and the baseline scenario will have a peak of 5.205 Gt carbon emissions and 1.578 Gt carbon emissions in 2060, which is lower than the carbon absorption capacity of China’s natural ecosystems.

Study on CO2 and CH4 emission fluxes from Lancang River cascade reservoirs   Collect
TAO Yu-Chen, FU Kai-Dao, ZHANG Jie, YANG Li-Sha, YUAN Xi
Climate Change Research. 2024, 20 (1): 107-117.   DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2023.188
Abstract ( 138 )   HTML ( 9 )     PDF (3066KB) ( 267 )  

The greenhouse effect has become an important global climate issue, and inland waters are an important source of emissions of the greenhouse gases (GHG) CO2 and CH4. It has been found that hydropower energy, once considered clean, may cause an increase in CO2 and CH4 emissions from river waters as a result of damming and impounding water. In order to actively respond to the national “Dual-Carbon” goal and clarify the impact of damming and impounding on GHG emissions from water bodies, the G-res Tool, a model for evaluating the net flux of GHG emissions from reservoirs, was used to simulate the CO2 and CH4 emission fluxes before and after impoundment of 10 completed terrace reservoirs on the main stream of the Lancang River. The average annual GHG (CO2 and CH4) emission flux of the 10 reservoirs after impoundment is 162.81 g CO2e/(m2·a), which is much lower than the global average level of reservoirs, but all of them behave as “sources” of GHGs, with an overall upward trend from upstream to downstream. Emissions are dominated by CO2, with an annual CO2 emission fluxes 36 times that of CH4, which is dominated by diffuse and off-gas emissions. After considering the GHG emissions prior to reservoir impoundment and the impacts of unrelated anthropogenic sources, the average annual net flux of GHG (CO2 and CH4) emissions from the reservoir is 225.70 g CO2e/(m2·a), suggesting that damming increases the release of GHGs from the reservoir waters. However, hydropower is still a relatively clean energy compared to thermal power generation.

Global warming and monsoon   Collect
ZHAO Zong-Ci, LUO Yong, HUANG Jian-Bin
Climate Change Research. 2024, 20 (1): 118-120.   DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2023.246
Abstract ( 154 )   HTML ( 27 )     PDF (887KB) ( 345 )  
Reflections on the application of “The Ocean Solutions Initiative” for climate change   Collect
XU Yan, LU Wen-Hai, ZENG Rong, LIU Chang
Climate Change Research. 2024, 20 (1): 121-128.   DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2023.161
Abstract ( 132 )   HTML ( 9 )     PDF (1193KB) ( 201 )  

The ocean plays an important role in mitigating and adapting to global climate change. “The Ocean Solutions Initiative” aims to address climate change and reduce the impact of climate change on marine ecosystems and their services through ocean-related measures. A lot of research and practice have been carried out on the role of the ocean in addressing climate change at home and abroad. It has shown that the utilization of marine renewable energy, the protection and restoration of marine ecology, and the construction of marine protected areas can effectively alleviate the negative impacts of climate change. The ocean solutions can be used for national climate change mitigation and adaptation, and included in one of the goals of Nationally Determined Contribution. Further strengthening research on related technologies of the ocean solutions, establishing cross-sectoral coordination mechanisms, and actively carrying out international cooperation can promote the localization and mainstream application of the ocean solutions.

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