Scenario simulation of urban passenger transportation carbon reduction based on system dynamics

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2022.138

Abstract

Abstract:

With the rapid development of urbanization and motorization in China, urban passenger transport has become a major contributor to carbon dioxide emissions. Under the background of “double carbon”, how to realize the energy conservation and emission reduction of urban passenger transport has become a focus of attention. Based on the data of Beijing, the system dynamics model of carbon emission of urban passenger transport was improved, by considering the influence of road green space and new energy vehicles on the carbon emissions, and the total carbon emissions of urban passenger transport in Beijing from 2011 to 2020 were calculated. Five emission reduction scenarios were proposed based on the carbon peak background, and the emission reduction effects of different scenarios from 2021 to 2025 were estimated. The results show that the private car is the main contributor of urban passenger transportation carbon emissions. The annual carbon sequestration of urban road green space is equivalent to about 28% of the annual carbon emissions of buses. Under single scenario, the carbon emissions of urban passenger transportation in Beijing fails to reach the peak from 2021 to 2025, and the scenario with the best emission reduction effect is “controlling private traffic travel demand”. Under double scenario, part of the combined scenario can make the carbon emissions of urban passenger transportation in Beijing reach the peak before 2030 according to the existing scenario, and the best combined scenario is “controlling private traffic travel demand” and “improving energy efficiency”. Under triple scenario, except for the combined scenarios of “promoting new energy vehicles”, “improving road carrying capacity” and “improving road greening level”, all the other combined scenarios can make urban passenger transportation in Beijing reach the carbon peak before 2030 according to the existing scenario.

Key words: Urban passenger transportation, Carbon emissions, System dynamics model, Scenario analysis

GE Qiu-Yu, XU Yi-Nuo, QIU Rong-Zu, HU Xi-Sheng, ZHANG Yuan-Yuan, LIU Na-Cui, ZHANG Lan-Yi. Scenario simulation of urban passenger transportation carbon reduction based on system dynamics[J]. Climate Change Research, 2023, 19(3): 357-370.

Figures/Tables 19

Fig. 1 Boundaries of urban passenger transportation

Fig. 2 Structure chart of urban passenger transportation carbon emissions system

Table 1 Reference of annual carbon sequestration of road greenspace per unit area

Fig. 3 Stocks and flow of population and economy subsystem

Table 2 Main equations of population and economy subsystem

Fig. 4 Stocks and flow of urban road subsystem

Table 3 Main equations of urban road subsystem

Fig. 5 Stocks and flow of road green space

Table 4 Main equations of road green space subsystem

Fig. 6 Stocks and flow of carbon emissions

Table 5 Main equations of carbon emissions subsystem

Fig. 7 Sensitivity analysis of the system dynamic model of passenger transportation in Beijing in 2011-2020

Table 6 The accuracy test results of the system dynamic model of passenger transportation in Beijing

Fig. 8 Carbon emissions of various transportation modes and carbon sequestration of road green space in Beijing

Table 7 Description of setting scenarios for carbon emissions reduction

Fig. 9 Urban passenger transportation carbon emissions under single strategy scenario in Beijing

Fig. 10 Urban passenger transportation carbon emissions under double strategy scenario in Beijing

Fig. 11 Urban passenger transportation carbon emissions under triple strategy scenario in Beijing

Fig. 12 Urban passenger transportation carbon emissions under quadruple strategy scenario and comprehensive scenario in Beijing

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