Abstract:

As climate change intensifies and the global climate governance process accelerates, carbon peaking has become the core of global climate action, with an increasing number of countries setting carbon neutrality targets and taking actions. China announced the “dual carbon” goals at the 75th General Debate of the United Nations General Assembly. Several developed economies that have already peaked also proposed carbon neutral commitments. Adopting both holistic and focal perspectives which highlight phases and equity respectively, this paper analyses the course and characteristics of carbon peaking, as well as carbon neutrality targets and plans of major developed economies including the EU and the US. It is found that developed economies usually experienced a relatively long climbing period (58-136 years) and plateau phase (4-20 years) in the process of carbon peaking. For these economies, at the time of carbon peaking, the energy mix was dominated by oil and natural gas, which accounted for 57%-77% of primary energy consumption. In addition, per capita emissions, historical cumulative emissions and per capita GDP were all at a high level. The decoupling of economy growth and carbon emissions were achieved around the carbon peak. Carbon neutrality pathways of developed countries generally focus on energy transition, apply diverse policy instruments, and emphasize low and negative carbon technology innovation. Based on the policy outlook of developed economies, it is difficult to reduce absolute emissions to zero when achieving carbon neutrality, and offset by carbon removal methods is required. Through a comparative analysis, this paper finds that China’s carbon peaking and carbon neutral targets are ambitious climate commitments that require greater efforts than those of developed economies. To support the implementation of China’s carbon neutrality goal, it is recommended to use a comprehensive integrated policy framework, accelerate climate legislation, promote energy transition in a just transition approach, and strengthen the development and application of renewable energy and energy efficiency technologies.

Key words: Emission reduction pathway, Carbon peaking, Carbon neutrality, Dual carbon, Climate change