Climate Change Research ›› 2018, Vol. 14 ›› Issue (1): 95-105.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2017.093

• Greenhouse Gas Emissions • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Future CO2 emissions projection of China based on U.S. new climate policy

Jie-Ming CHOU1(), Ru-Feng DAI1, Wen-Jie DONG1,2, Jing-Han BAN1, Chuan-Ye HU1   

  1. 1 State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    2 School of Atmospheric Sciences, SunYat-Sen University, Zhuhai 519082, China
  • Received:2017-05-11 Revised:2017-07-03 Online:2018-01-31 Published:2018-01-30


In this paper, the LMDI decomposition method is used to analyze the CO2 emission in the production sector in China during 2000-2014, and the CO2 projection model is established by combining the STIRPAT model to analyze the possible CO2 emission of China during 2017-2030. The results show that economic growth and energy intensity are the two most important factors influencing the change of CO2 emission in China. The contribution rates are 114.9% and -22.6%. Three routes are set, which are normal route, emission reduction route and radicals route, a total of 9 scenarios. Low carbon scenario of normal route and benchmark scenario of emission reduction route could achieve CO2 emissions peak in 2025, and low carbon scenario of emission reduction route could achieve peak emissions by 2020.

Key words: CO2 emission projection, LMDI method, Scenario analysis, CO2 emission peak of China, New climate policy of U.S.

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