Abstract: 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories was adopted to estimate provincial greenhouse gas emissions from power sector in China in 1990-2014. The national emissions in 2014 increased by more than 6 times since 1990, reaching 3.80 (3.13-4.60, 95% confidence interval) billion t CO₂-eq. The changing patterns of provincial emissions were also examined in this study. Great disparity existed in the provincial emissions and the Inner Mongolia became the biggest emitter since 2011, promoting the emission center transferred from the East to West China. Based on development plans of power structure in the future, the greenhouse gas emissions from power sector in 2015-2050 were projected under different power demand scenarios. Under a high power demand scenario, projected emissions will peak in 2034 with 5.95 (4.93-7.18) billion t CO₂-eq. While under a low power demand scenario, the projected emissions will peak in 2031 with 0.77 (0.63-0.93) billion t CO₂-eq lower than those of high demand scenario.

Key words: power industry, greenhouse gas, spatial distribution, scenario analysis, peak emissions