Allocation of carbon dioxide emission total targets in China province based on the dynamic improved equal proportion distribution

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2022.178

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the original improved equal proportion distribution, the dynamic improvement was carried out to meet the needs of the decomposition of the total provincial CO₂ emission target to the cities. This method was applied to the Hebei province case. The results show that high-carbon cities in traditional industries such as coal and steel should strictly control the growth of carbon emissions, and only obtain a small amount of CO₂ relative surplus space; The cities south of Beijing and Tianjin would obtain more CO₂ relative surplus space than other cities. The construction of Xiongan New Area also needs a certain space for CO₂ emission increment. According to the judgment result of carbon peaking control time, Tangshan and Handan should reach the peak before 2025; most cities still reach the peak on time according to 2030, which can meet the overall peaking demand of Hebei province before 2030. Based on the comparative analysis of the old and new methods, the new method is based on fairness and efficiency, and development trend of the cities and carbon control policy orientation are taken into account, which is different from the original method’s decomposition logic. This method can be further optimized to adapt to the decomposition needs of carbon emission targets in provinces with different development characteristics.

Key words: Carbon peaking, Allocation of total carbon dioxide emission, Dynamic improved equal proportion distribution, Prefecture-level city

WANG Rui, ZHANG He, ZHANG Yun, HUANG Ya-Zhe. Allocation of carbon dioxide emission total targets in China province based on the dynamic improved equal proportion distribution[J]. Climate Change Research, 2023, 19(2): 238-248.

Figures/Tables 5

Table 1 Evaluation index system of governance capacity, emission reduction potentials and major strategies

Table 2 Criterion conditions of carbon peak control time

Table 3 Calculation results of model parameters

Table 4 Distribution results of total carbon emissions in prefecture-level cities in Hebei province in 2025 and 2030

Fig. 1 Comparative analysis of the decomposition results of total carbon emissions based on the new method and the original method. (a) Total CO2 emissions in 2030, (b) relative residual space of CO2 emissions in 2030

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