Projection of the tropical cyclones landing in China in the future based on regional climate model

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2022.064

Abstract

Abstract:

In view of the impact of tropical cyclones (TCs) on coastal areas of China, it is of great significance for disaster prevention and reduction to study the changes of TC activities landing in China in the future under global warming. Based on outputs from the global climate model HadGEM2-ES in CMIP5, this study carried out dynamic downscaling simulation of the regional climate over East Asia in historical period and in the future under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) with low, intermediate and very high greenhouse gas emissions (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), and tested the model’s ability of simulating the activities of TCs landing in China and TC-related large-scale environmental fields by using the regional climate model RegCM4. The changes of track, intensity and frequency of TCs landing in China during 2030-2039, 2050-2059 and 2089-2098 under three RCPs were also projected. The results are as follows. The model can reasonably reproduce the spatial structure of large-scale atmospheric circulation field over East Asia and the characteristics of TCs landing in China in the historical period (1986-2005). The average intensity and number of TCs landing in China under three RCPs will increase in varying degrees in the future, especially the number of typhoons and above will increase significantly. The most prominent changes appear in the RCP8.5 scenario, by the end of the 21st century (2089-2098), the average intensity, annual mean number of typhoons and above will increase by 7.56% and 1.05, respectively. The tracks of TCs landing in China under three RCPs in the future are prone to move northward in varying degrees. Moreover, the greater the global warming, the more obvious the northward tendency, which may be related to the significant warming offshore China and the weakening of vertical wind shear in the future. The prediction results of this study show that coastal areas of China, especially in the middle and high latitudes, are likely to face increasingly severe TC disasters in the future, so it is necessary to find the countermeasures of disaster prevention and reduction as soon as possible.

Key words: RegCM4 model, China, Tropical cyclones (TC), Northward shift of the TC tracks, Projection

NIE Xin-Yu, TAN Hong-Jian, CAI Rong-Shuo, GAO Xue-Jie. Projection of the tropical cyclones landing in China in the future based on regional climate model[J]. Climate Change Research, 2023, 19(1): 23-37.

Figures/Tables 9

Fig. 1 Altitude and regional scale of the study area

Fig. 2 Observation (a), simulation (b), bias between simulation and observation (c) of 2 m air temperature (shaded) and wind field at 925 hPa (arrows) in summer during 1986-2005

Fig. 3 Observation (a), simulation (b), bias between simulation and observation (c) of 200-850 hPa vertical wind shear in summer during 1986-2005. (The black thick dotted line and black thick solid line are the contour lines of 12 m/s vertical wind shear observed and simulated, respectively)

Fig. 4 Observed (a) and simulated (b) landfall TC tracks with different intensity during 1986-2005, and observed track density (c), simulated track density (d), bias between simulated track density and observed track density (e) at 2°×2°grid point. (TS, STS, TY, STY, SSTY in the picture mean tropical storm, strong tropical storm, typhoon, strong typhoon, super typhoon, respectively)

Fig. 5 The annual average number (a) and average intensity (b) of TCs with different intensities observed and simulated in China from 1986 to 2005

Fig. 6 Difference distribution of track density of TCs landing in China at 2°×2° grid point in the future relative to the simulated value from 1986 to 2005 under three RCPs. (The black dots indicate the bias passing the significance test at the 90% confidence level)

Fig. 7 Annual average number of TCs with different intensity landing in China in the future under historical and three RCPs. (The vertical lines in the figure indicate one standard deviation of the study period and indicate the uncertainty range of TC number)

Fig. 8 The same as Fig 7, but (a), (c), (e) is the average intensity, and (b), (d), (f) is the percentage of average intensity change

Fig. 9 Linear trends of sea surface temperature (a), 200-850 hPa vertical wind shear (b) in summer during 1986-2098 under the RCP8.5 scenario. (The thick black lines are the contours of 12 m/s vertical wind shear and the black dots indicate passing the significance test at the 99% confidence level)

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