Climate Change Research ›› 2023, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (1): 23-37.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2022.064

• Changes in Climate System • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Projection of the tropical cyclones landing in China in the future based on regional climate model

NIE Xin-Yu1(), TAN Hong-Jian1, CAI Rong-Shuo1(), GAO Xue-Jie2   

  1. 1 Third Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Xiamen 361005, China
    2 Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
  • Received:2022-03-31 Revised:2022-05-16 Online:2023-01-30 Published:2022-09-14
  • Contact: NIE Xin-Yu,CAI Rong-Shuo;


In view of the impact of tropical cyclones (TCs) on coastal areas of China, it is of great significance for disaster prevention and reduction to study the changes of TC activities landing in China in the future under global warming. Based on outputs from the global climate model HadGEM2-ES in CMIP5, this study carried out dynamic downscaling simulation of the regional climate over East Asia in historical period and in the future under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) with low, intermediate and very high greenhouse gas emissions (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), and tested the model’s ability of simulating the activities of TCs landing in China and TC-related large-scale environmental fields by using the regional climate model RegCM4. The changes of track, intensity and frequency of TCs landing in China during 2030-2039, 2050-2059 and 2089-2098 under three RCPs were also projected. The results are as follows. The model can reasonably reproduce the spatial structure of large-scale atmospheric circulation field over East Asia and the characteristics of TCs landing in China in the historical period (1986-2005). The average intensity and number of TCs landing in China under three RCPs will increase in varying degrees in the future, especially the number of typhoons and above will increase significantly. The most prominent changes appear in the RCP8.5 scenario, by the end of the 21st century (2089-2098), the average intensity, annual mean number of typhoons and above will increase by 7.56% and 1.05, respectively. The tracks of TCs landing in China under three RCPs in the future are prone to move northward in varying degrees. Moreover, the greater the global warming, the more obvious the northward tendency, which may be related to the significant warming offshore China and the weakening of vertical wind shear in the future. The prediction results of this study show that coastal areas of China, especially in the middle and high latitudes, are likely to face increasingly severe TC disasters in the future, so it is necessary to find the countermeasures of disaster prevention and reduction as soon as possible.

Key words: RegCM4 model, China, Tropical cyclones (TC), Northward shift of the TC tracks, Projection

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