Dry-wet climate evolution feature and projection of future changes based on CMIP6 models in early summer over Yunnan province, China

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2022.016

Abstract

Abstract:

The dry/wet climate change in early summer has an important impact on the industrial and ecological environment in Yunnan province. In this article, the evolution characteristics of aridity index (AI) were analyzed from 1961 to 2020 using observation data, and the probable trend in 2021-2080 was projected by using 20 CMIP6 models under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. The AI in early summer of Yunnan province showed a decreasing trend from 1961 to 2020, and it had obvious inter-decadal change characteristics, the climate of 1960s, 1970s and 2000s was humid, and the rest period was dry, 2000s (2010s) was the wettest (driest) decade since 1961. Under three SSPs from 2021 to 2080, the climate in early summer of Yunnan will be drier than the average of 1995-2014. The regional average AI over Yunnan would decrease by 13.9%, 17.9%, and 24.9% under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, respectively. Southwestern Yunnan will be the center of the largest decrease for wetness. The main influencing factor of climate drying is precipitation in 1961-2020, but it will be potential evapotranspiration in 2021-2080, which would increase gradually with time and the increase of emission scenario.

Key words: Yunnan province, Dry-wet climate change, Projection, Aridity index (AI)

ZHOU Jian-Qin, HUANG Wei, LI Meng, ZHENG Jian-Meng, LUO Meng, FU Rui. Dry-wet climate evolution feature and projection of future changes based on CMIP6 models in early summer over Yunnan province, China[J]. Climate Change Research, 2022, 18(4): 482-491.

Figures/Tables 10

Table 1 Basic information of the 20 CMIP6 global climate models used in this study

Fig. 1 Spatial distributions of AI (aridity index) average (a) and linear variation trend (b) in early summer of Yunnan province during 1961-2020. (The black dots represent the 95% confidence level)

Fig. 2 The percentage of AI anomaly per decade average from 1961 to 2020 (relative to 1981-2010)

Fig. 3 Distribution of 11-year moving average of AI, precipitation anomaly percentage and PET anomaly in early summer in Yunnan from 1961 to 2020 (relative to 1981-2010)

Fig. 4 Contribution of precipitation (a) and PET (b) to AI changes, the difference between absolute value of precipitation contribution and PET contribution (c) and percentage of AI anomaly during 1961-2020 (d) (relative to 1981-2010)

Fig. 5 Regional mean to every 10-year change of AI index, contribution of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration to AI changes over Yunnan during 1961-2020

Fig. 6 The AI anomaly percentage of Yunnan in early summer from 2021 to 2080 relative to 1995-2014, as derived from 20 CMIP6 models under SSP1-2.6 (a), SSP2-4.5 (b), and SSP5-8.5 (c), respectively

Table 2 Projected precipitation anomaly percentage, PET anomaly and AI anomaly percentage in Yunnan during 2021-2080 relative to 1995-2014

Fig. 7 The same as Fig. 6, but for anomaly of PET

Fig. 8 AI anomaly percentage, contribution of regional precipitation and PET to the AI changes during 2021-2080 (a) SSP1-2.6, (b) SSP2-4.5, and (c) SSP5-8.5

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