Climate Change Research ›› 2022, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (4): 482-491.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2022.016

• Changes in Climate System • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Dry-wet climate evolution feature and projection of future changes based on CMIP6 models in early summer over Yunnan province, China

ZHOU Jian-Qin1(), HUANG Wei1(), LI Meng1, ZHENG Jian-Meng1, LUO Meng1, FU Rui2   

  1. 1 Yunnan Climate Center, Kunming 650034, China
    2 Yunnan Institute of Meteorology Sciences, Kunming 650034, China
  • Received:2022-01-24 Revised:2022-04-03 Online:2022-07-30 Published:2022-06-20
  • Contact: HUANG Wei;


The dry/wet climate change in early summer has an important impact on the industrial and ecological environment in Yunnan province. In this article, the evolution characteristics of aridity index (AI) were analyzed from 1961 to 2020 using observation data, and the probable trend in 2021-2080 was projected by using 20 CMIP6 models under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. The AI in early summer of Yunnan province showed a decreasing trend from 1961 to 2020, and it had obvious inter-decadal change characteristics, the climate of 1960s, 1970s and 2000s was humid, and the rest period was dry, 2000s (2010s) was the wettest (driest) decade since 1961. Under three SSPs from 2021 to 2080, the climate in early summer of Yunnan will be drier than the average of 1995-2014. The regional average AI over Yunnan would decrease by 13.9%, 17.9%, and 24.9% under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, respectively. Southwestern Yunnan will be the center of the largest decrease for wetness. The main influencing factor of climate drying is precipitation in 1961-2020, but it will be potential evapotranspiration in 2021-2080, which would increase gradually with time and the increase of emission scenario.

Key words: Yunnan province, Dry-wet climate change, Projection, Aridity index (AI)

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