Climate Change Research ›› 2022, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (2): 166-176.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2021.154

• Impacts of Climate Change • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Projection of China landslide disasters population risk under climate change

WANG Xia1,2(), WANG Ying1,2(), LIN Qi-Gen3, LI Ning1,2, ZHANG Xin-Ren1,2, ZHOU Xiao-Ying1,2   

  1. 1 Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    2 Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Emergency Management and Ministry of Education, Beijing 100875, China
    3 Institute for Disaster Risk Management/School of Geographical Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
  • Received:2021-08-04 Revised:2021-10-03 Online:2022-03-30 Published:2021-12-28
  • Contact: WANG Ying;


China is a country in the world where landslides disasters have caused serious casualties. Due to the impact of climate change, the occurrence of extreme precipitation frequency and intensity is projected to be on the rise, which will increase the population risk of landslide disasters. This paper coupled the future precipitation data of multiple models in different RCPs scenarios and the population data in SSPs scenario into an established landslides risk model to quantitatively assess the projected changes in China landslides population risk. The results showed that compared with the baseline period (1970-2000), the high-landslide-hazard zones is projected to increase by 5.5% and 7.9%, respectively under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios in the middle 21st century (2031-2060). The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has the most significant growth. The population risk of landslides disasters in China shows increasing trend and then decreases under the RCPs-SSPs scenarios. Compared with the RCP4.5/SSP2, the average annually casualty of landslide disasters will increase from 639 to 956 under the RCP8.5/SSP3 in the middle 21st century. In the end of the 21st century (2071-2100), due to the decline of exposure population, the average annual casualties of landslide disasters will decrease to 737. In the future, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Sichuan, Yunnan, and Tibet will always be the provinces with the highest casualties of landslides disaster. Therefore, it is necessary to increase risk prevention measures to reduce the population risk of landslides disaster.

Key words: Climate change, Extreme precipitation, Landslides disaster, Population risk, China

Copyright © Climate Change Research, All Rights Reserved.
Tel: (010)58995171 E-mail:
Powered by Beijing Magtech Co. Ltd