Climate Change Research ›› 2021, Vol. 17 ›› Issue (6): 652-663.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2021.239

• Special Section on the Sixth Assessment Report of IPCC: WGI • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Interpreting IPCC AR6: future global climate based on projection under scenarios and on near-term information

ZHOU Tian-Jun1,2(), CHEN Zi-Ming2,1, CHEN Xiao-Long1, ZUO Meng1, JIANG Jie1, HU Shuai1   

  1. 1 Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
    2 College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of China Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2021-10-11 Revised:2021-11-02 Online:2021-11-30 Published:2021-11-08


Based on the content of Chapter 4 from the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) contributed by the IPCC Working Group I, we interpret the future projections of global climate change. The AR6 systematically assessed possible changes of global surface air temperature, precipitation, large-scale circulation and modes of variability, and changes in ocean and cryosphere, and further reasonably estimated the climate change beyond 2100. The assessments show that global mean surface air temperature would reach 1.5℃ or even beyond it. Mean-state and variability of precipitation would increase as well, but varying with seasons and regions. Large-scale circulation and modes of variability are more affected by internal variability rather than external forcing. By the end of the 21st century, ice-free period would be seen in the Arctic. Ocean acidification and increase of global mean sea level (GMSL) would continue at the century time scale with uncertain magnitudes depending on emission scenarios. The projected GMSL would go higher beyond 2100 under all the scenarios. Multiple constraining methods are introduced in this latest assessment, reducing the uncertainty range of future projection. By paying an additional attention to the low emission scenarios and low-likelihood high-impact storylines, the AR6 provided richer and more comprehensive information for addressing climate change. Integrating the assessment conclusions, we suggest that future studies need to reduce the projected uncertainties in regional climate change, especially in the monsoon regions, and that capability construction of climate projection in China need to be strengthened in both scientific research and model development.

Key words: IPCC AR6, Climate projection, SSP scenarios, Surface air temperature, Precipitation, Circulation, Sea ice, Sea level

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