Risk assessment of extreme low temperature events over the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2021.250

Abstract

Abstract:

Hazard, exposure and vulnerability are the key factors in the risk assessment of extreme low temperature events. Based on the daily minimum temperature, population and cultivated land in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) for the period 1961-2015, nine indices including the intensity, frequency and duration of extreme low temperature events, population density, proportion of cultivated land area, vegetation fraction, digital elevation model (DEM), proportion of vulnerable population and gender proportion are selected, and the combination weight of each index is determined by analytic hierarchy process and entropy weight method. The risk assessment of extreme low temperature events in the CPEC has realized the zoning of different risk levels (low, moderately low, moderate, moderately high, high risk) of extreme low temperature events in the CPEC. The results show that there are significant spatial differences in the risk distribution of extreme low temperature events in the CPEC. The risk of extreme low temperature events is greatly affected by the intensity of extreme low temperature events, population density and terrain. Most areas in the region belong to low-risk areas, but include Pakistan’s Azad Kashmir, Gilgit-Baltistan, Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Kashgar region of China belong to high-risk areas; Among them, the high-risk area in Azad Kashmir accounts for about 35%, and the moderately high risk area in FATA accounts for about 7.7%. In the Gilgit-Baltistan region, the area of moderate risk areas accounts for the highest proportion of about 24.6%. More than 10% of moderate risk areas are Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (12.5%), Azad Kashmir (20%), Kashgar region (14.3%) and FATA (10.2%). The results are consistent with the historical disasters, which can provide reference for regional meteorological disaster risk assessment and disaster prevention and reduction.

Key words: China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Extreme low temperature events, Combined weight, Risk assessment

LI Tao, TAO Hui, CHEN Jin-Yu. Risk assessment of extreme low temperature events over the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor[J]. Climate Change Research, 2022, 18(3): 343-354.

Figures/Tables 10

Fig. 1 Geographical location of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)

Fig. 2 Spatial distribution of extreme low temperature thresholds in CPEC

Table 1 Risk index system of extreme low temperature events

Table 2 Weight of extreme low temperature event risk index

Table 3 Classification standard of extreme low temperature event risk assessment

Fig. 3 Spatial distribution of hazard index of CPEC

Fig. 4 Spatial distribution of exposure index of CPEC

Fig. 5 Spatial distribution of vulnerability index of CPEC

Fig. 6 Spatial distribution of extreme low temperature risk in CPEC

Fig. 7 Area proportion of extreme low temperature events at different risk levels for different administrative units in CPEC

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