Recent changes and future projection of precipitation in Northwest China

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2021.281

Abstract

Abstract:

Using the observational data and simulation results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), precipitation changes in Northwest China during 1979-2019 and under future global warming conditions are studied. Observations show that annual mean precipitation increased significantly in the arid and semi-arid areas of Northwest China over 1979-2019. Precipitation increased significantly in all seasons, with the largest increase in autumn. CMIP6 projection simulations show that precipitation in Northwest China will continue to increase from 2015 to 2100 along with global warming. Compared with that of the other regions in China, the increase of precipitation percentage is the largest in Northwest China. According to the projection of multi-mode ensemble mean, under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the increasing rates of annual mean precipitation in Northwest China are about 1.6%/(10 a) and 3.0%/(10 a), respectively. By the end of the 21st century, the annual mean precipitation in Northwest China will increase by ~13.7% (37 mm) for SSP2-4.5 and ~25.8% (78 mm) for SSP5-8.5. The seasons with the largest increase in precipitation are summer for SSP2-4.5 and spring for SSP5-8.5. Considering that evaporation in Northwest China will also increase with global warming, the annual mean net precipitation in Northwest China will increase by ~1.4% for SSP2-4.5 and ~4.9% for SSP5-8.5 at the end of the 21st century. Consequently, the increase of near surface soil moisture in Northwest China are ~10% for SSP2-4.5 and ~20% for SSP5-8.5. These results indicate that there is a significant wetting trend in Northwest China in the future. Further analysis also shows that future precipitation increasing in Northwest China are due to decreases of geopotential heights at the lower troposphere, which enhances upward motions.

Key words: Wetting in Northwest China, Precipitation, Global warming, Soil moisture, Future projection

ZHANG Shi-Yan, HU Yong-Yun, LI Zhi-Bo. Recent changes and future projection of precipitation in Northwest China[J]. Climate Change Research, 2022, 18(6): 683-694.

Figures/Tables 10

Table 1 The 25 CMIP6 models and their outputs used in this study

Fig. 1 Climatological annual mean precipitation (a, b) and precipitation trends (c, d) over 1979-2019. (Regions with dots in plot (c) and solid circles in plot (d) indicate that precipitation changes are statistically significant at the 95% confidence level, with the Student t-test, the same below)

Fig. 2 Trends in monthly mean precipitation in Northwest China over 1979-2019. (Asterisks indicate that the trends are statistically significant at the 95% confidence level)

Fig. 3 Climatological annual mean precipitation (a) and precipitation trends (c) over 1979-2014 in CMIP6 historical simulations, as well as their differences (b, d) from GPCC

Fig. 4 Time series of seasonal mean precipitation anomalies in Northwest China over 1979-2100. (Precipitation anomalies are calculated by subtracting the mean precipitation of the first 5 years (1979-1983) of the time series. Gray, yellow and red shadings indicate the inter-model spreads of precipitation in the historical, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 simulations, respectively)

Fig. 5 CMIP6 projected percentage of annual mean precipitation (a, b), evaporation (c, d) and net precipitation (e, f) changes in China over 2015-2100

Fig. 6 CMIP6 projected percentage of annual mean precipitation, evaporation and net precipitation changes in Northwest China over 2015-2100. (× denotes the ensemble mean. Circles denote results of individual models)

Fig. 7 Projected percentage of trends in annual mean near surface soil moisture in China by CMIP6 for SSP2-4.5 (a) and SSP5-8.5 (b)

Fig. 8 Trends of annual mean 700 hPa geopotential heights over 2015-2100 regressed against the precipitation in Northwest China for SSP2-4.5 (a) and SSP5-8.5 (b). (Contours indicate climatological zonal anomalies of geopotential heights, and contour intervals are 10 m. Color shading indicates trends in geopotential heights)

Fig. 9 Trends of annual mean 700 hPa vertical velocity over 2015-2100 regressed against the precipitation in Northwest China for SSP2-4.5 (a) and SSP5-8.5 (b). (Contours indicate climatological vertical velocity, and contour intervals are 10-3 Pa/s. Color shading indicates trends in vertical velocity)

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