Fig. 1 Ten typical regions of the Belt and Road

Fig. 2 The empirical probability density functions for warm month near-surface air temperature (TAS) anomalies in the Belt and Road regions during 1986-2005 (Colored lines represent results from 31 models)

Fig. 3 Box plots of regional mean warm month temperature extreme anomalies from multi-model simulations in the Belt and Road regions during 1986-2005 (The five bands in each box indicate the lower and upper bounds, the median, and the 25th and 75th percentiles of the multimodel ensemble, + represent outliers beyond upper and lower bounds)

Fig. 4 PDF-based skill scores for warm month temperatures simulated by 31 CMIP5 models in the Belt and Road regions (Black lines indicate the scores from MME, black dashed lines indicate the scores from the median, and black circles indicate the scores from better models, numbers from 1 to 31 in the horizontal ordinate correspond to the mode number in Table 1)

Fig. 5 Box plots of changes in the regional mean warm month temperature extremes anomalies relative to 1986-2005 projected by the better-model ensemble in the Belt and Road regions during the middle of the 21st century (black) and the end of the century (white)

Fig. 6 The empirical probability density functions of cold month TAS anomalies in the Belt and Road regions during 1986-2005 (Colored lines represent results from 31 models)

Fig. 7 Box plots of regional mean warm cold month temperature extreme anomalies in the Belt and Road regions from multi-model simulations during 1986-2005

Fig. 8 PDF-based skill scores for cold month temperatures simulated by 31 models in the Belt and Road regions

Fig. 9 Box plots of change in the regional mean cold month temperature extremes anomalies relative to 1986-2005 projected by the better-model ensemble in the Belt and Road regions during the middle of the 21st century (black) and the end of the century (white)