Climate Change Research ›› 2021, Vol. 17 ›› Issue (2): 162-174.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2020.029

• Changes in Climate System • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Preliminary assessment on CMIP6 decadal prediction ability of air temperature over China

TANG Zi-Chen1,2, LI Qing-Quan1,2, WANG Li-Juan1(), WU Li-Quan3   

  1. 1 Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology (NUIST), Nanjing 210044, China
    2 Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
    3 Guangxi Climate Center, Nanning 530022, China
  • Received:2020-02-21 Revised:2020-08-23 Online:2021-03-30 Published:2021-04-02
  • Contact: WANG Li-Juan


The prediction ability of air temperature over China is evaluated in this paper based on the outputs of the Canadian CanESM5 model and the Japanese MIROC6 model participating in the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) of the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Comparing decadal prediction with historical simulation, both models’ decadal hindcasts show higher prediction skill for surface air temperature (SAT), which proves oceanic initialization improves the prediction skill of SAT in China on decadal scale. The models can capture the variation of annual mean temperature, and the prediction skill of seasonal mean temperature is the highest in autumn and comparatively lower in winter. Although both models have good performances in predicting annual and seasonal mean temperatures in various regions of China, the prediction skills are higher in the southern and western China than the northern China. As the lead time increases, the prediction skills of annual, spring and winter mean temperatures decrease, while those of summer and autumn mean temperature increase. The prediction skills of subregions share the same characteristics with the whole country.

Key words: CMIP6, Climate model, Decadal prediction, Near-surface air temperature over China

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