碳市场与电力市场机制影响下发电机组成本分析与竞争力研究

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2020.160

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

碳市场和电力市场将共同发挥市场对资源优化配置的决定性作用,对共同市场主体发电企业带来经营和发展挑战。在考虑碳成本的基础上,采用发电机组经济性影响模型,定量分析了碳市场不同发展阶段对发电机组发电成本的影响,定量评价不同能源结构投资收益经济性,以及对集中竞价市场出清顺序的影响。结果表明,随着有偿配额比例和碳价增加,碳成本占发电成本比例逐步攀升,燃煤机组碳成本占发电成本比例最高将达29%,燃气机组此比例达6%;在设定碳市场高比例配额有偿分配和高碳价情况下,煤电和气电单位发电收益逐步降低甚至出现亏损,远低于可再生能源,推动投资逐步向清洁高效火电机组和可再生能源倾斜;碳成本将成为竞价市场需考虑的重要因素,并影响发电机组出清顺序,进一步巩固高效率、低排放机组在集中竞价市场中的竞争力。

关键词: 气候变化, 碳市场, 电力市场, 碳成本, 发电成本, 出清顺序

Abstract:

Carbon market and power market will jointly play a decisive role in the optimal allocation of resources and bring challenges to the operation and development of the market subject, i.e. the power generation enterprises. Based on the economic impact model of power generation enterprises considering the carbon cost, the impact of different development stages of carbon market on the electricity cost of power generation enterprises was quantitatively analyzed, and the economy of investment income of different energy structure and the impact on clearing order of centralized bidding market was quantitatively evaluated. The results show that as the paid quota allocation proportion and carbon price increase, the proportion of carbon cost in the total cost per kilowatt hour gradually rises. The carbon cost of coal-fired units accounts for 29% of the total cost per kilowatt hour, and the proportion of gas-fired units accounts for 6% of the total cost per kilowatt hour. The carbon market will promote the investment tendency to clean and efficient thermal power units and renewable energy gradually, and affect the clearing order of generating units, so as to further consolidate the high-efficiency and low-emission units competitiveness in the centralized bidding market.

Key words: Climate change, Carbon market, Power market, Carbon cost, Electricity cost, Clearing order

孙友源, 郭振, 张继广, 秦亚琦. 碳市场与电力市场机制影响下发电机组成本分析与竞争力研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2021, 17(4): 476-483.

SUN You-Yuan, GUO Zhen, ZHANG Ji-Guang, QIN Ya-Qi. Research on cost analysis and competitiveness of power generation units under the influence of carbon market and power market coupling mechanism[J]. Climate Change Research, 2021, 17(4): 476-483.

图/表 5

表1 全国碳市场燃煤、燃气机组配额分配基准值

Table 1 Quota allocation benchmark of the national carbon emission trading market

表2 燃煤和燃气机组的特性参数

Table 2 Characteristic parameters of coal-fired and gas-fired units

图1 不同配额拍卖比例和碳价下(a)燃煤机组和(b)燃气机组碳成本

Fig. 1 Carbon cost at different quota auction proportions and carbon prices

图2 不同电源类型单位发电成本(a)和单位发电收益(b) 注：图形上边界表示在配额有偿分配比例、碳价和燃料价格设定的上限,以及平均利用小时设定的下限情景下不同电源类型单位发电成本和单位发电收益;下边界表示在配额有偿分配比例、碳价和燃料价格设定的下限,以及平均利用小时设定的上限情景下不同电源类型单位发电成本和单位发电收益。

Fig. 2 Per kilowatt hour cost (a) and profit (b) of different power supply types

图3 考虑碳市场影响下发电机组出清顺序注：图形的下边界为“不考虑碳市场影响”情景下的边际成本值,上边界为“考虑碳市场”情景下的边际成本值。

Fig. 3 Clearing order of generator considering the impacts of carbon market

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