气候变化情景下泥石流危险性响应分析

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2020.004

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2020, Vol. 16 ›› Issue (4): 415-423.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2020.004

所属专题：气候变化的灾害效应专栏

• 气候变化的灾害效应专栏 • 上一篇下一篇

气候变化情景下泥石流危险性响应分析

徐粒¹^,³(), 李倩¹^,³, 王瑛¹^,²^,³, 黄靖玲¹^,³, 许映军¹^,²^,³()

1 北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室,北京 100875
2 北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京 100875
3 北京师范大学应急管理部-教育部减灾与应急管理研究院,北京 100875

收稿日期:2020-01-03 修回日期:2020-04-19 出版日期:2020-07-30 发布日期:2020-08-05
通讯作者: 许映军
作者简介:徐粒,男,硕士研究生, xuli1994@mail.bnu.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划项目“山洪灾害动态预警与风险评估平台构建”(2017YFC1502505)

Analysis of the changes in debris flow hazard in the context of climate change

XU Li¹^,³(), LI Qian¹^,³, WANG Ying¹^,²^,³, HUANG Jing-Ling¹^,³, XU Ying-Jun¹^,²^,³()

1 Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
2 State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
3 Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Emergency Management and Ministry of Education & Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

Received:2020-01-03 Revised:2020-04-19 Online:2020-07-30 Published:2020-08-05
Contact: XU Ying-Jun

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

通过中国1950—2010年降水日值0.5°×0.5°格点数据和CMIP5的6个气候模式数据,以2010年舟曲8·7特大山洪泥石流为例,估算此次灾害发生的降雨重现期,并估算未来同等重现期下的降雨量,基于HEC-HMS和FLO-2D模型模拟该降雨量下山洪泥石流堆积面积与泥沙冲出量,进而得到了气候变化背景下的泥石流危险性变化。结果表明：2010年舟曲8·7山洪泥石流灾害的降雨重现期为1500 a,未来相同重现期下降雨量为113.7 mm。设防水平不变条件下,舟曲县城泥石流堆积面积可达2010年灾害的173%,总泥沙量增加到148%,且泥石流堆积面积增加的区域主要位于2010年舟曲县城人口密集区。可见,灾后重建中舟曲县城一半以上居民的转移安置政策有利于弱化未来气候变化背景下泥石流危险性增加的不利影响,是一种有效的气候变化适应性举措。

关键词: 气候变化, 极端降雨, 重现期, 泥石流, 舟曲

Abstract:

Based on the 0.5°×0.5° grid daily precipitation datasets and six climate model simulation results of CMIP5, taking the 2010 Zhouqu flash flood and debris flow disaster as the study case, the precipitation return period of this disaster was estimated, and the future precipitation at the same return period was inferred. Then, using the HEC-HMS and FLO-2D models, the mudflow deposition areas and total sediment amount under the future precipitation were simulated, and then the variation of the debris flow hazards was presented. The results show that the precipitation return period in the 2010 Zhouqu debris flow disaster is 1500 years, and the estimated future precipitation for the same return period is 113.7 mm. Under the same fortification, this precipitation will cause the debris flow deposition area in Zhouqu county town to reach 173% of that in 2010 Zhouqu debris flow, and the total amount of sediment will increase by 148%. In addition, the increased area of the debris flow is mainly located in the densely-populated area of Zhouqu county town in 2010. It can be said that the policy of relocating more than half of the residents in Zhouqu county town during the 2010 post-disaster reconstruction, is conducive to preventing the adverse effects of increased hazard of debris flow in the context of climate change.

Key words: Climate change, Extreme precipitation, Return period, Debris flow, Zhouqu

徐粒, 李倩, 王瑛, 黄靖玲, 许映军. 气候变化情景下泥石流危险性响应分析[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2020, 16(4): 415-423.

XU Li, LI Qian, WANG Ying, HUANG Jing-Ling, XU Ying-Jun. Analysis of the changes in debris flow hazard in the context of climate change[J]. Climate Change Research, 2020, 16(4): 415-423.

图/表 11

图1 研究区概况

Fig. 1 Overview of the study area

表1 CMIP5模式降雨数据

Table 1 Information of CMIP5 climate models

图2 舟曲站与东山站的灾害过程小时雨量与累积雨量

Fig. 2 Hourly and cumulative rainfall during the disaster at Zhouqu and Dongshan station

图3 HEC-HMS模型结构及原理

Fig. 3 Structure and principle of the HEC-HMS

图4 FLO-2D模型模拟泥石流过程

Fig. 4 Flowchart of the FLO-2D model on mudflow simulation

图5 精度评价因子Ω计算中模拟与实际堆积区域示意图

Fig. 5 Schematic diagram of simulated and observed deposition areas in calculation of evaluation factor (Ω)

图6 研究区1950—2010年历史年内最大日降雨量序列(a)与Gumbel估计极值降雨累计概率分布(b)

Fig. 6 The series of annual maximum daily rainfall from 1950 to 2010 in the study area (a) and the cumulative probability of extreme precipitation estimated by Gumbel model (b)

表2 基于历史降雨的不同重现期下降雨量

Table 2 Rainfall amount at different return periods based on historical datasets

表3 气候变化背景下1500 a一遇的模拟降雨量

Table 3 Simulated precipitation in a return period of 1500 years in the context of climate change

图7 气候变化的极端情况下模拟降雨过程

Fig. 7 Simulated precipitation processes in extreme cases of climate change

图8 舟曲县城泥石流堆积面积模拟结果

Fig. 8 Simulation results of mudflow deposition area in Zhouqu county town

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气候变化情景下泥石流危险性响应分析

Analysis of the changes in debris flow hazard in the context of climate change

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