气候变化对澜湄流域上下游水资源合作潜力的影响

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2020.008

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2020, Vol. 16 ›› Issue (5): 555-563.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2020.008

气候变化对澜湄流域上下游水资源合作潜力的影响

运晓博¹^,²(), 汤秋鸿¹^,²(), 徐锡蒙¹, 周园园¹, 刘星才¹, 王杰¹^,², 孙思奥³

1 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室,北京 100101
2 中国科学院大学,北京 100049
3 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室,北京 100101

收稿日期:2020-01-10 修回日期:2020-05-21 出版日期:2020-09-30 发布日期:2020-09-30
通讯作者: 汤秋鸿
作者简介:运晓博,男,博士研究生, yunxiaobo17@mails.ucas.ac.cn
基金资助:
中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA20060402);第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究(2019QZKK0208);国家自然科学基金(41425002);国家自然科学基金(41730645)

Impact of climate change on water resource cooperation between the upstream and downstream of the Lancang-Mekong River basin

YUN Xiao-Bo¹^,²(), TANG Qiu-Hong¹^,²(), XU Xi-Meng¹, ZHOU Yuan-Yuan¹, LIU Xing-Cai¹, WANG Jie¹^,², SUN Si-Ao³

1 Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing 100101, China
2 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
3 Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China

Received:2020-01-10 Revised:2020-05-21 Online:2020-09-30 Published:2020-09-30
Contact: TANG Qiu-Hong

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

澜沧江-湄公河（澜湄）流域南北跨越了25个纬度,流域上下游气候差异明显。同时遭遇干旱或湿润通常不利于上下游水资源合作,而水文气象条件正常或上下游间的干湿条件不一样时有利于缓解流域内的竞争性用水状况。为探究气候变化对澜湄流域上下游水资源合作潜力的影响,基于普林斯顿降水数据集与全球气候模型预估数据,利用标准化降水指数（SPI）和Copula函数计算了历史时期（1985—2016年）与未来时期（2021—2090年）澜湄流域上下游同时面临干旱、湿润以及干湿存在差异的发生概率。基于典型浓度路径RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景的预估结果显示与历史时期相比,未来时期澜湄流域在RCP4.5与RCP8.5情景下具有相似的变化趋势,即：遭遇同期湿润的概率在逐渐增大（最大达到199.5%),遭遇同期干旱的概率则在逐渐减少(最小达到-35.9%),而遭遇干湿差异时期的概率在所有时段均大幅减少（-53.1%~-42.5%)。未来澜湄流域上下游同期湿润概率的增加和遭遇干湿差异概率的减少预计将加大上下游面临水资源竞争的可能性,从而对澜湄流域各国家之间的水资源合作产生不利影响。这一研究可以为澜湄流域水资源合作策略的制定提供科学参考和依据。

关键词: 跨境河流, 气候变化, 澜湄流域, Copula函数

Abstract:

The Lancang-Mekong River basin flows southward across 25 degree of latitude with large climatic variations between the upstream and downstream. The concurrent drought and wet events will affect the water resources cooperation potential between upstream and downstream countries. Based on the Princeton precipitation dataset and global climate model data, the standardized precipitation index and Copula function were used to investigate the impacts of climate change on concurrent drought, concurrent wet and concurrence of different dry and wet conditions during the historical period (1982-2016) and future period (2021-2090) in the upstream and downstream of the Lancang-Mekong River basin. The results showed that compared with the historical period, the Lancang-Mekong River basin shows the similar change trend under the scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in the future period: the probability of concurrent wet will gradually increase (maximum 199.5%), and the probability of concurrent drought will gradually decrease (minimum -35.9%), and the probability of uneven water resource situation will greatly reduce in all periods (-53.1% - -42.5%). The results indicate that water resources cooperation between the upstream and the downstream of the Lancang-Mekong River basin may be adversely affected by climate change, and there is an urgent need for adaptation strategy to address water resources cooperation in the Lancang-Mekong River basin.

Key words: Transboundary river, Climate change, Lancang-Mekong River basin (LMRB), Copula function

运晓博, 汤秋鸿, 徐锡蒙, 周园园, 刘星才, 王杰, 孙思奥. 气候变化对澜湄流域上下游水资源合作潜力的影响[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2020, 16(5): 555-563.

YUN Xiao-Bo, TANG Qiu-Hong, XU Xi-Meng, ZHOU Yuan-Yuan, LIU Xing-Cai, WANG Jie, SUN Si-Ao. Impact of climate change on water resource cooperation between the upstream and downstream of the Lancang-Mekong River basin[J]. Climate Change Research, 2020, 16(5): 555-563.

图/表 6

图1 澜湄流域示意图

Fig. 1 Schematic diagram of the Lancang-Mekong River basin (LMRB)

图2 1982—2016年澜湄流域上游(a)与下游(b) SPI-3的变化

Fig. 2 The variation of SPI-3 in upstream (a) and downstream (b) from 1982 to 2016 in the LMRB

图3 1982—2016年澜湄流域上下游SPI-3联合概率分布的累积等值线注：红色区域代表同期干旱（SPI-3≤-1）的时期,蓝色区域代表同期湿润（SPI-3≥1）的时期,绿色区域表示干湿差异的时期。

Fig. 3 Level curve of the joint probability distribution of the SPI-3 in upstream and downstream from 1982 to 2016 in the LMRB (The red frame area indicates the concurrent drought, the blue frame area indicates the concurrent wet, the green area indicates the uneven water resource period)

图4 2021—2090年澜湄流域上下游SPI-3的变化趋势

Fig. 4 SPI-3 of upstream and downstream from 2021 to 2090 in the LMRB

图5 未来湄公河流域的SPI-3变化率分布

Fig. 5 Distribution of SPI-3 change rate in the LMRB based on GCMs

表1 澜湄流域上下游近期与远期遭遇同期干旱、同期湿润与干湿差异时期的概率 %

Table 1 Probability of concurrent drought, concurrent wet and uneven water resource period between the upstream and downstream of the LMRB in the near and far future periods

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气候变化对澜湄流域上下游水资源合作潜力的影响

Impact of climate change on water resource cooperation between the upstream and downstream of the Lancang-Mekong River basin

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