气候变化研究进展 ›› 2025, Vol. 21 ›› Issue (4): 583-592.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2025.021

• 全球气候治理 • 上一篇    

巴库气候大会成果盘点及全球气候治理形势展望

樊星(), 梁启迪, 吴承霖, 高翔()   

  1. 国家应对气候变化战略研究和国际合作中心,北京 100035
  • 收稿日期:2025-02-05 修回日期:2025-03-28 出版日期:2025-07-30 发布日期:2025-06-20
  • 通讯作者: 高翔,男,研究员,gaoxiang@ncsc.org.cn
  • 作者简介:樊星,女,副研究员,fanxing@ncsc.org.cn

Stocktaking on the Baku Climate Change Conference and perspectives on global climate governance

FAN Xing(), LIANG Qi-Di, WU Cheng-Lin, GAO Xiang()   

  1. National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation, Beijing 100035, China
  • Received:2025-02-05 Revised:2025-03-28 Online:2025-07-30 Published:2025-06-20

摘要:

《联合国气候变化框架公约》第29届缔约方大会(COP29)通过了《巴黎协定》第六条,达成了包括气候资金新的集体量化目标、减缓工作方案、全球适应计划等决定在内的“巴库气候团结契约”一揽子平衡成果。COP29是在《巴黎协定》首次全球盘点结束后、各方提交新一轮国家自主贡献(NDC)前召开的承上启下的大会,其开幕恰逢美国宣布大选结果后的第五天,面对美国可能再退《巴黎协定》的阴霾,大会仍取得了重要成果,有力维护了多边主义,推动了全球气候治理进程。然而,考虑到资金、减缓、全球盘点等部分成果的后续安排,大会程序出现有悖多边议事规则的新情况,以及美国“去气候化”政策前景和欧盟绿色政策保守化掣肘气候行动等新形势,全球气候治理的前景面临不小挑战。建议妥善应对美国再度退出《巴黎协定》,积极引导全球气候治理进程走向,用好气候与贸易议题,加强中国气候资金机制相关研究,并提前谋划COP30工作方案。

关键词: 气候变化, 全球气候治理, 气候谈判, 巴库气候团结契约, 《巴黎协定》

Abstract:

The 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) adopted decisions on Article 6 of the Paris Agreement and reached a balanced package of outcomes known as the “Baku Climate Unity Pact”, including decisions on new collective quantified goal on climate finance, mitigation work programme, global goal on adaptation. COP29, a bridging conference held after the first global stocktake under the Paris Agreement and before Parties submit a new round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), has successfully concluded despite the shadow of a potential U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement. The outcomes have strongly upheld multilateralism and advanced global climate governance. However, challenges remain, including follow-up arrangements on finance, mitigation, and the global stocktake, as well as the new situation of procedural developments at the conference that deviated from established multilateral negotiation rules. Additionally, the prospect of the U.S.’s “de-climatization” policies and the EU’s rightward political shift pose significant constraints on climate action. It is recommended to proactively address U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, actively guide the direction of global climate governance, leverage climate and trade issues, strengthen research on China’s climate finance mechanism, and holistically prepare for COP30 in advance.

Key words: Climate change, Global climate governance, Climate negotiation, Baku Climate Unity Pact, Paris Agreement

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