气候变化研究进展 ›› 2025, Vol. 21 ›› Issue (4): 574-582.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2025.009

• 全球气候治理 • 上一篇    下一篇

从巴黎到贝伦——《巴黎协定》十周年进展与展望

孙若水1(), 梁媚聪2()   

  1. 1 清华大学气候变化与可持续发展研究院,北京 100084
    2 国家应对气候变化战略研究和国际合作中心,北京 100035
  • 收稿日期:2025-01-10 修回日期:2025-03-17 出版日期:2025-07-30 发布日期:2025-06-20
  • 通讯作者: 梁媚聪,女,助理研究员,liangmc@ncsc.org.cn
  • 作者简介:孙若水,男,研究实习员,sun_diandian@sina.com

From Paris to Belém: progress and forecast at the decennial of Paris Agreement

SUN Ruo-Shui1(), LIANG Mei-Cong2()   

  1. 1 Institute of Climate Change and Sustainable Development of Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
    2 National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation, Beijing 100035, China
  • Received:2025-01-10 Revised:2025-03-17 Online:2025-07-30 Published:2025-06-20

摘要:

2015年达成的《巴黎协定》开创了全球气候治理新模式。过去十年间,伴随着《巴黎协定》实施细则不断完善、以5年为周期的执行机制持续推进、应对损失与损害和公正转型等新兴议题接连涌现,全球气候治理进程朝着“公平合理、合作共赢”的方向稳步发展。在全球政治和经济格局剧烈演变、地表平均温度多次突破历史最高值、美国总统特朗普再次“退群”等多重因素影响下,2025年COP30贝伦气候大会将是全球气候治理进程的又一重要节点,届时全球适应目标、减缓、毁林、公正转型等将成为重点谈判议题,《巴黎协定》执行机制也可能得到进一步完善和调整。时值《巴黎协定》达成十周年之际,回顾《巴黎协定》签署以来全球气候治理进展、深入分析当前多边气候谈判焦点和挑战、展望未来全球气候治理走向,有利于我国积极发挥全球气候治理领导力、推动贝伦大会达成平衡全面成果、进一步巩固全球气候治理共识。

关键词: 气候变化, 巴黎协定, 气候谈判, COP30

Abstract:

Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015, has initiated the new paradigm of global climate governance. Over the past decade, with the completion of the Paris implementation rulebook, the advancement of the five-year “implementation cycle”, and the emergence of new issues such as loss and damage and just transition, the global climate governance has steadily progressed towards a direction of being “fair, reasonable, cooperative and win-win”. Amidst the dramatic shifts in the global political and economic landscape, the breaking records of global surface temperature, and the United States’ withdrawal from the Paris Agreement for the second time under President Trump, the upcoming COP30 Belém Climate Conference stands as another critical juncture in the intergovernmental climate change process. Key negotiation topics will include global goal on adaptation, mitigation, deforestation, and just transition, as well as the potential refinement on the implementation mechanism of the Paris Agreement. Upon the decennial of the Paris Agreement, reviewing its progress, analyzing key contentions and challenges, and envisioning the prospects of global climate governance, will be helpful to achieve a balanced and comprehensive outcome in Belém.

Key words: Climate change, Paris Agreement, Climate negotiation, COP30

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