青藏高原冰川物质平衡变化特征及其对气候变化响应的研究进展

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2024.174

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2025, Vol. 21 ›› Issue (2): 208-220.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2024.174

青藏高原冰川物质平衡变化特征及其对气候变化响应的研究进展

王英珊¹, 孙维君¹(), 丁明虎², 刘伟刚³, 杜文涛⁴^,⁵^,⁶, 秦翔⁴, 张东启²

1 山东师范大学地理与环境学院，济南 250358
2 中国气象科学研究院全球变化与极地研究所，北京 100081
3 中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所，兰州 730020
4 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院冰冻圈科学与冻土工程重点实验室，兰州 730000
5 甘肃省灾害防治智能装备及大数据行业技术中心，兰州 730000
6 张掖市气象局，张掖 734000

收稿日期:2024-07-08 修回日期:2024-08-27 出版日期:2025-03-30 发布日期:2024-12-31
通讯作者: 孙维君，男，教授，sunweijun@sdnu.edu.cn
作者简介:王英珊，女，博士研究生
基金资助:
第二次青藏高原科考项目(2019QZKK0106);国家自然科学基金项目(42271145);山东省泰山学者项目(tsqn202312158);山东省高等学校 “青创团队计划”项目(2023KJ195)

Characteristics of glacier mass balance changes and response to climate change in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China

WANG Ying-Shan¹, SUN Wei-Jun¹(), DING Ming-Hu², LIU Wei-Gang³, DU Wen-Tao⁴^,⁵^,⁶, QIN Xiang⁴, ZHANG Dong-Qi²

1 College of Geography and Environment, Shandong Normal University, Ji’nan 250358, China
2 Institute of Global Change and Polar Research, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
3 Lanzhou Institute of Arid Meteorology of China Meteorological Administration, Lanzhou 730020, China
4 Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science and Frozen Soil Engineering, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
5 Disaster Prevention and Control Technology Centre for Intelligent Equipment and Big Data in Gansu Province, Lanzhou 730000, China
6 Zhangye Meteorological Bureau, Zhangye 734000, China

Received:2024-07-08 Revised:2024-08-27 Online:2025-03-30 Published:2024-12-31

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

冰川是冰冻圈最重要的组成部分之一，冰川物质平衡是对气候变化最直接的响应。青藏高原被称为“亚洲水塔”，探明该地区山地冰川物质平衡变化，对评估海平面和水资源变化以及预警冰雪灾害风险具有重要意义。受“高原放大效应”影响，青藏高原升温速率高于全球平均水平且持续增暖，高原气候向暖湿化发展。西风和季风是青藏高原气候与环境变化的决定性因素，青藏高原冰川近年来基本处于退缩状态并在20世纪末加速损失，其中季风影响区的冰川退缩强烈，西风影响区的冰川趋于稳定甚至部分冰川出现前进现象，西风-季风过渡地区的冰川退缩程度减弱；青藏高原东南部冰川加速亏损，西北部冰川萎缩速率较小，冰川总面积在未来持续减小。高原大部分冰川对气温变化的敏感性高于对降水的敏感性，极端天气和大尺度环流对冰川物质平衡变化也有重要影响，但其影响机制亟需进一步加强研究。开展青藏高原地区冰川物质平衡变化研究，仍面临很多挑战，是冰冻圈科学领域未来的前沿科学问题和重点工作。

关键词: 冰川物质平衡, 气候变化响应, 气候敏感性, 青藏高原

Abstract:

The glacier is one of the most important components of the cryosphere, and the glacier mass balance is the most direct response to climate change. The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) is known as the “Water Tower of Asia”. It is important to explore changes in the mountain glacier mass balance in the plateau to assess changes in sea level and water resources and provide early warning of the risk of ice-snow disaster. As a result of the “plateau amplification effect”, the QTP is warming at a rate higher than the global average. It continues to warm, and the plateau climate is becoming warmer and more humid. The westerlies and monsoon are the determining factors of climate and environmental change on the QTP; the glaciers in the monsoon-influenced area retreat strongly, the glaciers in the westerlies influenced area tend to stable or even advance in part of the glaciers, and the degree of glacier retreat in the westerlies-monsoon transition area is weakened. The loss of glacier mass is accelerated in the south-east of the QTP, while the shrinkage rate of the north-west glaciers is smaller, and the total glacier area will continue to decrease in the future. Most of the glaciers on the QTP are more sensitive to temperature changes than to precipitation, and extreme weather and large-scale circulation also have an important influence on changes in glacier mass balance, but research on the mechanism of their influence needs to be further strengthened. Researching changes in glacier mass balance in the QTP still faces many challenges and is a future frontier scientific issue and priority for cryosphere science.

Key words: Glacier mass balance, Response to climate change, Climate sensitivity, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP)

王英珊, 孙维君, 丁明虎, 刘伟刚, 杜文涛, 秦翔, 张东启. 青藏高原冰川物质平衡变化特征及其对气候变化响应的研究进展[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2025, 21(2): 208-220.

WANG Ying-Shan, SUN Wei-Jun, DING Ming-Hu, LIU Wei-Gang, DU Wen-Tao, QIN Xiang, ZHANG Dong-Qi. Characteristics of glacier mass balance changes and response to climate change in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China[J]. Climate Change Research, 2025, 21(2): 208-220.

图/表 5

图1 青藏高原冰川分布及部分典型冰川21世纪以来物质平衡变化注：此图改绘自文献[15?-17,39???????????-51]，图中数字代表物质平衡变化，单位为m w.e./a。

Fig. 1 Distribution of glaciers in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and changes in the mass balance of some typical glaciers since the 21st century

表1 青藏高原不同区域典型冰川物质平衡变率

Table 1 Changes in the mass balance of typical glaciers in different regions of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

图2 青藏高原2000—2021年均冰川物质平衡变化注：此图改绘自文献[60,62]，图中数字代表物质平衡变化，单位为m w.e./a。

Fig. 2 Mean glacial mass balance changes on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from 2000 to 2021

图3 2000—2100年青藏高原不同情景下冰川物质平衡变化率(a)和总物质量变化(b)[69]

Fig. 3 Glacier mass balance change rate (a) and total mass change (b) under different scenarios on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from 2000 to 2100[69]

图4 不同情景下青藏高原冰川物质平衡线高度变化 (a)多条冰川平均，(b)阿布拉莫夫冰川，(c)七一冰川[68]

Fig. 4 Equilibrium line altitude on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau under different scenarios from 1979 to 2100. (a) Multi-glacier average, (b) Abramov glacier, (c) Qiyi glacier [68]

参考文献 120

[1]	Fowler A, Ng F. Glaciers and ice sheets in the climate system: the Karthaus summer school lecture notes[M]. Springer Nature, 2020. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-42584-5
[2]	IPCC. Climate change 2021: the physical science basis[M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2021
[3]	Medwedeff W G, Roe G H. Trends and variability in the global dataset of glacier mass balance[J]. Climate Dynamics, 2017, 48: 3085-3097
[4]	Zemp M, Frey H, Gärtner-Roer I, et al. Historically unprecedented global glacier decline in the early 21st century[J]. Journal of Glaciology, 2015, 61 (228): 745-762
[5]	王宁练, 姚檀栋, 徐柏青, 等. 全球变暖背景下青藏高原及周边地区冰川变化的时空格局与趋势及影响[J]. 中国科学院院刊, 2019, 34 (11): 1220-1232.
	Wang N L, Yao T D, Xu B Q, et al. Spatiotemporal pattern, trend, and influence of glacier change in Tibetan Plateau and surroundings under global warming[J]. Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2019, 34 (11): 1220-1232 (in Chinese)
[6]	谢自楚, 周宰根, 李巧媛, 等. 高亚洲冰川系统物质平衡特征及其对全球变化响应研究进展与展望[J]. 地球科学进展, 2009, 24 (10): 1065. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2009.10.1065
	Xie Z C, Zhou Z G, Li Q Y, et al. Progress and prospects of mass balance characteristic and responding to global change of glacier system in High Asia[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2009, 24 (10): 1065 (in Chinese)
[7]	赵银, 张勇, 刘时银, 等. 青藏高原东南部海洋型冰川物质平衡研究进展[J]. 冰川冻土, 2022, 44 (3): 930-945. doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2022.0089
	Zhao Y, Zhang Y, Liu S Y, et al. Review of maritime glacier mass balance in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2022, 44 (3): 930-945 (in Chinese) doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2022.0089
[8]	Chen D L. Assessment of past, present, and future environmental changes on the Tibetan Plateau[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2015, 60: 3025-3035
[9]	Ding Y H, Zhang L. Intercomparison of the time for climate abrupt change between the Tibetan Plateau and other regions in China[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2008, 32 (40): 794-805
[10]	Xu X, Dong L, Zhao Y, et al. Effect of the Asian Water Tower over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the characteristics of atmospheric water circulation[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2019, 64 (27): 2830-2841
[11]	You Q L, Kang S C, Chen D L, et al. Several research frontiers of climate change over the Tibetan Plateau[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2021, 43: 885-901 doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2021.0029
[12]	康世昌, 郭万钦, 钟歆玥, 等. 全球山地冰冻圈变化、影响与适应[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2020, 16 (2): 143-152.
	Kang S C, Guo W Q, Zhong X Y, et al. Changes in the mountain cryosphere and their impacts and adaptation measures[J]. Climate Change Research, 2020, 16 (2): 143-152 (in Chinese)
[13]	蒋熹, 王宁练, 贺建桥, 等. 山地冰川表面分布式能量-物质平衡模型及其应用[J]. 科学通报, 2010 (18): 1757-1765.
	Jiang X, Wang N L, He J Q, et al. A distributed surface energy and mass balance model and its application to a mountain glacier in China[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2010 (18): 1757-1765 (in Chinese)
[14]	李汶峰, 李忠勤, 李慧林. 度日模型与简化型能量平衡模型的时空推广性分析: 以乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川为例[J]. 安徽农业科学, 2017, 45 (2): 47-52.
	Li W F, Li Z Q, Li H L. Analyses on transferability of degree-day model and simple energy balance model: in case of Urumqi glacier no.1[J]. Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences, 2017, 45 (2): 47-52 (in Chinese)
[15]	王利辉, 秦翔, 陈记祖, 等. 1961—2013 年祁连山区冰川年物质平衡重建[J]. 干旱区研究, 2021, 38 (6): 1524-1533. doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2021.06.04
	Wang L H, Qin X, Chen J Z, et al. Reconstruction of the annual glacier mass balance in the Qilian Mountains from 1961 to 2013[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2021, 38 (6): 1524-1533 (in Chinese)
[16]	周广鹏, 姚檀栋, 康世昌, 等. 青藏高原中部扎当冰川物质平衡研究[J]. 冰川冻土, 2012, 29 (3): 360-365.
	Zhou G P, Yao T D, Kang S C, et al. Mass Balance of the Zhadang glacier in the central Tibetan Plateau[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2012, 29 (3): 360-365 (in Chinese)
[17]	Wu J K, Sun W J, Huai B J, et al. Mass balance reconstruction for Laohugou glacier no.12 from 1980 to 2020, western Qilian Mountains, China[J]. Remote Sensing, 2022, 14 (21): 5424
[18]	You Q L, Cai Z Y, Pepin N, et al. Warming amplification over the Arctic Pole and Third Pole: trends, mechanisms, and consequences[J]. Earth-Science Reviews, 2021, 217: 103625
[19]	陈发虎, 汪亚峰, 甄晓林, 等. 全球变化下的青藏高原环境影响及应对策略研究[J]. 中国藏学, 2021, 4: 21-28.
	Chen F H, Wang Y F, Zhen X L, et al. The environmental impacts and response strategies in the Tibetan Plateau under the global changes[J]. China Tibetology, 2021, 4: 21-28 (in Chinese)
[20]	Wu G X, Duan A M, Zhang X Q, et al. Extreme weather and climate changes and its environmental effects over the Tibetan Plateau[J]. Chinese Journal of Nature, 2013, 35 (3): 167-171
[21]	包文, 段安民, 游庆龙, 等. 青藏高原气候变化及其对水资源影响的研究进展[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2024, 20 (2): 158-169.
	Bao W, Duan A M, You Q L, et al. Research progress on climate change and its impact on water resources over the Tibetan Plateau[J]. Climate Change Research, 2024, 20 (2): 158-169 (in Chinese)
[22]	Ding J, Cuo L, Zhang Y, et al. Monthly and annual temperature extremes and their changes on the Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings during 1963-2015[J]. Scientific Reports, 2018, 8 (1): 11860 doi: 10.1038/s41598-018-30320-0 pmid: 30089784
[23]	马伟东, 刘峰贵, 周强, 等. 1961—2017 年青藏高原极端降水特征分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2020, 35 (12): 3039-3050. doi: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20201218
	Ma W D, Liu F G, Zhou Q, et al. Characteristics of extreme precipitation over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from 1961 to 2017[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2020, 35 (12): 3039-3050 (in Chinese)
[24]	Xiong J N, Yong Z W, Wang Z G, et al. Spatial and temporal patterns of the extreme precipitation across the Tibetan Plateau (1986-2015)[J]. Water, 2019, 11 (7): 1453
[25]	Chen W F, Yao T D, Zhang G Q, et al. Glacier surface heatwaves over the Tibetan Plateau[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2023, 50 (6): E2022gl101115
[26]	Tian Y L, Ghausi S A, Zhang Y, et al. Radiation as the dominant cause of high-temperature extremes on the eastern Tibetan Plateau[J]. Environmental Research Letters, 2023, 18 (7): 074007
[27]	Bao Y T, You Q L. How do westerly jet streams regulate the winter snow depth over the Tibetan Plateau?[J]. Climate Dynamics, 2019, 53 (1): 353-370
[28]	Bothe O, Fraedrich K, Zhu X H. Large-scale circulations and Tibetan Plateau summer drought and wetness in a high-resolution climate model[J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2011, 31 (6): 832-846
[29]	Chen X Y, You Q L. Effect of Indian ocean SST on Tibetan Plateau precipitation in the early rainy season[J]. Journal of Climate, 2017, 30 (22): 8973-8985
[30]	张人禾, 苏凤阁, 江志红, 等. 青藏高原 21 世纪气候和环境变化预估研究进展[J]. 科学通报, 2015, 60 (32): 3036-3047.
	Zhang R H, Su F G, Jiang Z H, et al. An overview of projected climate and environmental changes across the Tibetan Plateau in the 21st century[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2015, 60 (32): 3036-3047 (in Chinese)
[31]	Yin H, Sun Y, Donat M G. Changes in temperature extremes on the Tibetan Plateau and their attribution[J]. Environmental Research Letters, 2019, 14 (12): 124015
[32]	丁永建, 炳洪涛. 近40年来冰川物质平衡变化及对气候变化的响应[J]. 冰川冻土, 1996 (S1): 23-32.
	Ding Y J, Bing H T. Changes in glacier mass balance and response to climate change over the past 40 years[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 1996 (S1): 23-32 (in Chinese)
[33]	丁永建, 李新, 程国栋. 基于地理信息系统的太阳直接辐射与冰川物质平衡的关系[J]. 冰川冻土, 1998, 20 (2): 157-162.
	Ding Y J, Li X, Cheng G D. Potential direct solar radiation based on GIS and glacier mass balance[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 1998, 20 (2): 157-162 (in Chinese)
[34]	王盼盼, 李忠勤, 王璞玉, 等. 北极山地冰川物质平衡变化及其对气候的响应[J]. 干旱区研究, 2020, 37 (5): 1205-1214.
	Wang P P, Li Z Q, Wang P Y, et al. Changes in the mass balance of Arctic alpine glacier and its response to climate change[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2020, 37 (5): 1205-1214 (in Chinese) doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2020.05.13
[35]	Bamber J L, Westaway R M, Marzeion B, et al. The land ice contribution to sea level during the satellite era[J]. Environmental Research Letters, 2018, 13 (6): 063008
[36]	Wouters B, Gardner A S, Moholdt G. Global glacier mass loss during the grace satellite mission (2002-2016)[J]. Frontiers in Earth Science, 2019, 7: 96
[37]	Zemp M, Huss M, Thibert E, et al. Global glacier mass changes and their contributions to sea-level rise from 1961 to 2016[J]. Nature, 2019, 568 (7752): 382-386
[38]	Shean D E, Bhushan S, Montesano P, et al. A systematic, regional assessment of High Mountain Asia glacier mass balance[J]. Frontiers in Earth Science, 2020, 7: 363
[39]	刘宇硕, 秦翔, 张通, 等. 祁连山东段冷龙岭地区宁缠河3号冰川变化研究[J]. 冰川冻土, 2012, 34 (5): 1031-1036.
	Liu Y S, Qin X, Zhang T, et al. Variation of the Ningchan River glacier no.3 in the Lenglongling range, east Qilian Mountains[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2012, 34 (5): 1031-1036 (in Chinese)
[40]	牟建新, 李忠勤, 张慧, 等. 中国西部大陆性冰川与海洋性冰川物质平衡变化及其对气候响应: 以乌源1号冰川和帕隆94号冰川为例[J]. 干旱区地理, 2019, 42 (1): 20-29.
	Mu J X, Li Z Q, Zhang H, et al. Mass balance variation of continental glacier and temperate glacier and their response to climate change in western China: taking Urumqi glacier no.1 and Parlung no.94 glacier as examples[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2019, 42 (1): 20-29 (in Chinese)
[41]	Bolch T, Pieczonka T, Mukherjee K, et al. Brief communication: glaciers in the Hunza catchment (Karakoram) have been nearly in balance since the 1970s[J]. The Cryosphere, 2017, 11 (1): 531-539
[42]	魏俊峰, 张特, 张勇, 等. 入湖冰川物质平衡序列重建与分析: 以喜马拉雅山北坡龙巴萨巴冰川为例[J]. 冰川冻土, 2022, 44 (3): 914-929. doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2022.0087
	Wei J F, Zhang T, Zhang Y, et al. Reconstruction and analysis of mass balance for lake-terminating glaciers: a case study of Longbasaba glacier, north Himalaya[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2022, 44 (3): 914-929 (in Chinese)
[43]	Liu X W, Xu Z X, Yang H, et al. Responses of the glacier mass balance to climate change in the Tibetan Plateau during 1975-2013[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2021, 126 (7): E2019jd032132
[44]	Su B, Xiao C D, Chen D L, et al. Glacier change in China over past decades: spatiotemporal patterns and influencing factors[J]. Earth-Science Reviews, 2022, 226: 103926
[45]	Wang S, Yao T D, Tian L D, et al. Glacier mass variation and its effect on surface runoff in the Beida River catchment during 1957-2013[J]. Journal of Glaciology, 2017, 63 (239): 523-534
[46]	Yao T D, Thompson L, Yang W, et al. Different glacier status with atmospheric circulations in Tibetan Plateau and surroundings[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2012, 2 (9): 663-667
[47]	Zhang Y L, Gao T G, Kang S C, et al. Albedo reduction as an important driver for glacier melting in Tibetan Plateau and its surrounding areas[J]. Earth-Science Reviews, 2021, 220: 103735
[48]	Zhang Y, Hirabayashi Y, Liu S Y. Catchment-scale reconstruction of glacier mass balance using observations and global climate data: case study of the Hailuogou catchment, south-eastern Tibetan Plateau[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2012, 444: 146-160
[49]	Zhang Z, Liu S Y, Wei J F, et al. Mass change of glaciers in Muztag Ata-Kongur Tagh, eastern Pamir, China from 1971/76 to 2013/14 as derived from remote sensing data[J]. Plos ONE, 2016, 11 (1): E0147327
[50]	Zhu M L, Thompson L G, Zhao H B, et al. Influence of atmospheric circulation on glacier mass balance in western Tibet: an analysis based on observations and modeling[J]. Journal of Climate, 2021, 34 (16): 6743-6757
[51]	Sunako S, Fujita K, Sakai A, et al. Mass balance of Trambau glacier, rolwaling region, Nepal Himalaya: in-Situ observations, long-term reconstruction and mass-balance sensitivity[J]. Journal of Glaciology, 2019, 65 (252): 605-616
[52]	Li Z X. Glaciers response to climate change in southwestern China[M]. Berlin: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2015
[53]	黄凌昕, 陈婕, 阳坤, 等. 现代青藏高原亚洲夏季风气候北界及其西风区和季风区划分[J]. 中国科学: 地球科学, 2023, 53 (4): 866.
	Huang L X, Chen J, Yang K, et al. The northern boundary of the Asian summer monsoon and division of westerlies and monsoon regimes over the Tibetan Plateau in present-day[J]. Science China Earth Sciences, 2023, 53 (4): 866 (in Chinese)
[54]	Zhao F Y, Long D, Li X D, et al. Rapid glacier mass loss in the southeastern Tibetan plateau since the year 2000 from satellite observations[J]. Remote Sensing of Environment, 2022, 270: 112853
[55]	陈艳辉, 田立德, 宗继彪, 等. 西藏阿里地区大、小昂龙冰川变化观测研究[J]. 冰川冻土, 2021, 43 (1): 14-23. doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2019.0001
	Chen Y H, Tian L D, Zong J B, et al. Variation of the large and small Anglong glaciers in the Ngari prefecture, Tibet, China[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2021, 43 (1): 14-23 (in Chinese)
[56]	Wagnon P, Brun F, Khadka A, et al. Reanalyzing the 2007-19 glaciological mass-balance series of Mera glacier, Nepal, central Himalaya, using geodetic mass balance[J]. Journal of Glaciology, 2021, 67 (261): 117-125
[57]	Zhang H, Li Z Q, Zhou P. Mass balance reconstruction for Shiyi glacier in the Qilian Mountains, northeastern Tibetan Plateau, and its climatic drivers[J]. Climate Dynamics, 2021, 56: 969-984
[58]	Yao T D, Xue Y K, Chen D L, et al. Recent Third Pole’s rapid warming accompanies cryospheric melt and water cycle intensity and interactions between monsoon and environment: multidisciplinary approach with observations, modeling, and analysis[J]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2019, 100 (3): 423-444
[59]	李涛, 李超, 沈翔, 等. 双站InSAR和ICESat-2测高相结合的西昆仑山近20年冰川物质平衡变化监测[J]. 测绘学报, 2023, 52 (6): 917-931. doi: 10.11947/j.AGCS.2023.20210213
	Li T, Li C, Shen X, et al. Monitoring glacier mass balance of the west Kunlun Mountains over the past 20 years by bistatic InSAR and ICESat-2 altimetry measurements[J]. Acta Geodaetica et Cartographica Sinica, 2023, 52 (6): 917-931 (in Chinese) doi: 10.11947/j.AGCS.2023.20210213
[60]	Fan Y B, Ke C Q, Zhou X B, et al. Glacier mass-balance estimates over High Mountain Asia from 2000 to 2021 based on ICESat-2 and NASADEM[J]. Journal of Glaciology, 2023, 69 (275): 500-512
[61]	Luo L H, Ke C Q, Fan Y B, et al. Accelerated glacier mass loss in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau since the 1970s[J]. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2023, 14 (3): 372-386
[62]	Wu K P, Liu S Y, Jiang Z L, et al. Spatiotemporal pattern of glacier mass balance in the Tibetan Plateau interior area over the past 40 years[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2024, 635: 131200
[63]	姚檀栋, 余武生, 杨威, 等. 第三极冰川变化与地球系统过程[J]. 科学观察, 2016, 11 (6): 55-57. doi: 10.15978/j.cnki.1673-5668.201606007
	Yao T D, Yu W S, Yang W, et al. Third Pole glacier changes and Earth system processes[J]. Science Focus, 2016, 11 (6): 55-57 (in Chinese)
[64]	余荣, 翟盘茂. 海洋和冰冻圈变化有关的极端事件,突变及其影响与风险[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2020, 16 (2): 194-202.
	Yu R, Zhai P M. Ocean and cryosphere change related extreme events, abrupt change and its impact and risk[J]. Climate Change Research, 2020, 16 (2): 194-202 (in Chinese)
[65]	Abram N, Gattuso J P, A. Prakash L, et al. Framing and context of the report[M]//IPCC. IPCC special report on the ocean and cryosphere in a changing climate. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2019
[66]	马丽娟, 效存德, 康世昌. 全球主要山地气候变化特征和异同: IPCC AR6 WGI 报告和 SROCC 综合解读[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2022, 18 (5): 605-621.
	Ma L J, Xiao C D, Kang S C. Characteristics, and similarities and differences of climate change in major high mountains in the world: comprehensive interpretation of IPCC AR6 WGI report and SROCC[J]. Climate Change Research, 2022, 18 (5): 605-621 (in Chinese)
[67]	Miles E, Mccarthy M, Dehecq A, et al. Health and sustainability of glaciers in High Mountain Asia[J]. Nature Communications, 2021, 12 (1): 28-68
[68]	Duan K Q, Yao T D, Wang N L, et al. Changes in equilibrium-line altitude and implications for glacier evolution in the Asian high mountains in the 21st century[J]. Science China Earth Sciences, 2022, 65 (7): 1308-1316
[69]	Zhao H Y, Su B, Lei H J, et al. A new projection for glacier mass and runoff changes over High Mountain Asia[J]. Science Bulletin, 2023, 68 (1): 43-47 doi: 10.1016/j.scib.2022.12.004 pmid: 36682858
[70]	Wang S, Yao T D, Pu J C, et al. Historical reconstruction and future projection of mass balance and ice volume of Qiyi glacier, northeast Tibetan Plateau[J]. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 2023, 47: 10140
[71]	Hirabayashi Y, Nakano K, Zhang Y, et al. Contributions of natural and anthropogenic radiative forcing to mass loss of Northern Hemisphere mountain glaciers and quantifying their uncertainties[J]. Scientific Reports, 2016, 6 (1): 29723
[72]	Marzeion B, Jarosch A H, Gregory J M. Feedbacks and mechanisms affecting the global sensitivity of glaciers to climate change[J]. The Cryosphere, 2014, 8 (1): 59-71
[73]	Thibert E, Dkengne Sielenou P, Vionnet V, et al. Causes of glacier melt extremes in the Alps since 1949[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2018, 45 (2): 817-825
[74]	Vuille M, Carey M, Huggel C, et al. Rapid decline of snow and ice in the tropical Andes: impacts, uncertainties and challenges ahead[J]. Earth-Science Reviews, 2018, 176: 195-213
[75]	Prinz R, Nicholson L I, Mölg T, et al. Climatic controls and climate proxy potential of Lewis glacier, Mt.Kenya[J]. The Cryosphere, 2016, 10 (1): 133-148
[76]	杨兴国, 秦大河, 秦翔. 冰川/积雪-大气相互作用研究进展[J]. 冰川冻土, 2012, 34 (2): 392-402.
	Yang X G, Qin D H, Qin X. Progress in the study of interaction between ice/snow and atmosphere[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2012, 34 (2): 392-402 (in Chinese)
[77]	Toropov P A, Aleshina M A, Grachev A M. Large scale climatic factors driving glacier recession in the greater Caucasus, 20th-21st century[J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2019, 39 (12): 4703-4720
[78]	Jenkins A, Shoosmith D, Dutrieux P, et al. West Antarctic ice sheet retreat in the Amundsen Sea driven by decadal oceanic variability[J]. Nature Geoscience, 2018, 11 (10): 733-738 doi: 10.1038/s41561-018-0207-4
[79]	Konrad H, Shepherd A, Gilbert L, et al. Net retreat of Antarctic glacier grounding lines[J]. Nature Geoscience, 2018, 11 (4): 258-262 doi: 10.1038/s41561-018-0082-z
[80]	Sakakibara D, Sugiyama S. Ice-front variations and speed changes of calving glaciers in the southern Patagonia icefield from 1984 to 2011[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, 2014, 119 (11): 2541-2554
[81]	Smith J A, Andersen T, Shortt M, et al. Sub-ice-shelf sediments record history of twentieth-century retreat of Pine island glacier[J]. Nature, 2017, 541 (7635): 77-80
[82]	Duethmann D, Bolch T, Farinotti D, et al. Attribution of streamflow trends in snow and glacier melt-dominated catchments of the Tarim River, Central Asia[J]. Water Resources Research, 2015, 51 (6): 4727-4750
[83]	Masiokas M H, Christie D A, Quesne C L, et al. Reconstructing the annual mass balance of the Echaurren Norte glacier (central Andes, 33.5°S) using local and regional hydroclimatic data[J]. The Cryosphere, 2016, 10 (2): 927-940
[84]	Overland J E, Wang M, Walsh J E, et al. Future Arctic climate changes: adaptation and mitigation time scales[J]. Earth’s Future, 2014, 2 (2): 68-74
[85]	Willis M, Melkonian A, Pritchard M E. Outlet glacier response to the 2012 collapse of the Matusevich ice shelf, Severnaya Zemlya, Russian Arctic[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, 2015, 120 (10): 2040-2055
[86]	Pope S, Copland L, Alt B. Recent changes in sea ice plugs along the northern Canadian Arctic archipelago[J]. Arctic Ice Shelves and Ice Islands, 2017: 317-342
[87]	Thompson L G, Yao T D, Davis M E, et al. Ice core records of climate variability on the Third Pole with emphasis on the Guliya ice cap, western Kunlun Mountains[J]. Quaternary Science Reviews, 2018, 188: 1-14
[88]	Yang K, Wu H, Qin J, et al. Recent climate changes over the Tibetan Plateau and their impacts on energy and water cycle: a review[J]. Global and Planetary Change, 2014, 112: 79-91
[89]	Liang L Q, Cuo L, Liu Q. The role of the snow ratio in mass balance change under a warming climate for the Dongkemadi glacier, Tibetan Plateau[J]. Journal of Climate, 2022, 35 (12): 3833-3844
[90]	Deng C, Zhang W C. Spatial distribution pattern of degree-day factors of glaciers on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau[J]. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 2018, 190 (8): 475 doi: 10.1007/s10661-018-6860-7 pmid: 30022373
[91]	Chen J Z, Du W T, Kang S C, et al. Comparison of energy and mass balance characteristics between two glaciers in adjacent basins in the Qilian Mountains[J]. Climate Dynamics, 2023, 61 (3): 1535-1550
[92]	Cuo L, Zhang Y X, Wang Q C, et al. Climate change on the northern Tibetan Plateau during 1957-2009: spatial patterns and possible mechanisms[J]. Journal of Climate, 2013, 26 (1): 85-109
[93]	Kapnick S B, Delworth T L, Ashfaq M, et al. Snowfall less sensitive to warming in Karakoram than in Himalayas due to a unique seasonal cycle[J]. Nature Geoscience, 2014, 7 (11): 834-840
[94]	Yadav R R, Gupta A K, Kotlia B S, et al. Recent wetting and glacier expansion in the northwest Himalaya and Karakoram[J]. Scientific Reports, 2017, 7 (1): 6139 doi: 10.1038/s41598-017-06388-5 pmid: 28733643
[95]	Greuell W, Oerlemans J. Assessment of the surface mass balance along the K-transect (Greenland ice sheet) from satellite-derived albedos[J]. Annals of Glaciology, 2005, 42 (1): 107-117
[96]	Li H L, Wang P Y, Li Z Q, et al. Summertime surface mass balance and energy balance of Urumqi glacier no.1, Chinese Tien Shan, modeled by linking Cosima and in-Situ measured meteorological records[J]. Climate Dynamics, 2023, 61 (1): 765-787
[97]	Farinotti D, Immerzeel W W, De Kok R J, et al. Manifestations and mechanisms of the Karakoram glacier anomaly[J]. Nature Geoscience, 2020, 13 (1): 8-16 doi: 10.1038/s41561-019-0513-5 pmid: 31915463
[98]	Jouberton A, Shaw T E, Miles E, et al. Warming-induced monsoon precipitation phase change intensifies glacier mass loss in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2022, 119 (37): E2109796119
[99]	Caidong C, Sorteberg A. Modelled mass balance of Xibu glacier, Tibetan Plateau: sensitivity to climate change[J]. Journal of Glaciology, 2010, 56 (196): 235-248
[100]	Yang W, Yao T D, Guo X F, et al. Mass balance of a maritime glacier on the southeast Tibetan Plateau and its climatic sensitivity[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2013, 118 (17): 9579-9594
[101]	Zhang S Q, Ye B S, Liu S Y, et al. A modified monthly degree-day model for evaluating glacier runoff changes in China. Part I: model development[J]. Hydrological Processes, 2012, 26 (11): 1686-1696
[102]	Zhang G S, Kang S C, Fujita K, et al. Energy and mass balance of Zhadang glacier surface, central Tibetan Plateau[J]. Journal of Glaciology, 2013, 59 (213): 137-148
[103]	Zhu M L, Yao T D, Yang W, et al. Differences in mass balance behavior for three glaciers from different climatic regions on the Tibetan Plateau[J]. Climate Dynamics, 2018, 50 (9): 3457-3484
[104]	Liang L Q, Cuo L, Liu Q. The energy and mass balance of a continental glacier: Dongkemadi glacier in central Tibetan Plateau[J]. Scientific Reports, 2018, 8 (1): 12788 doi: 10.1038/s41598-018-31228-5 pmid: 30143725
[105]	刘易, 江利明, 张志敏, 等. 高亚洲冰川消融季遥感反照率与年际物质平衡相关性评估及分析[J]. 遥感学报, 2024, 28 (6): 1465-1479.
	Liu Y, Jiang L M, Zhang Z M, et al. Assessment and analysis of correlation between remote sensing albedo in ablation season and annual mass balance for glaciers in High Mountain Asia[J]. National Remote Sensing Bulletin, 2024, 28 (6): 1465-1479 (in Chinese)
[106]	Hock R. Temperature index melt modelling in mountain areas[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2003, 282 (1): 104-115
[107]	Kang S C, Zhang Q G, Qian Y, et al. Linking atmospheric pollution to cryospheric change in the Third Pole region: current progress and future prospects[J]. National Science Review, 2019, 6 (4): 796-809
[108]	Yang J H, Kang S C, Chen D L, et al. South Asian black carbon is threatening the water sustainability of the Asian Water Tower[J]. Nature Communications, 2022, 13 (1): 7360 doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-35128-1 pmid: 36450769
[109]	Xu C H, Li H L, Wang F T, et al. Heatwaves in summer 2022 forces substantial mass loss for Urumqi glacier no.1, China[J]. Journal of Glaciology, 2024: 1-5
[110]	Ke L H, Ding X L, Li W K, et al. Remote sensing of glacier change in the central Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the relationship with changing climate[J]. Remote Sensing, 2017, 9 (2): 114
[111]	刘虎, 王磊. 第三极地区冰川径流研究进展[J]. 冰川冻土, 2022, 44 (3): 737-752. doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2022.0073
	Liu H, Wang L. A review of glacier runoff studies in the Third Pole region[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2022, 44 (3): 737-752 (in Chinese) doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2022.0073
[112]	Meredith M P, Sommerkorn M, Cassotta S, et al. Chapter 3: polar regions[M]// IPCC. IPCC special report on the ocean and cryosphere in a changing climate. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2019
[113]	Mouginot J, Rignot E, Scheuchl B. Sustained increase in ice discharge from the Amundsen Sea embayment, west Antarctica, from 1973 to 2013[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2014, 41 (5): 1576-1584
[114]	Ginot P, Dumont M, Lim S, et al. A 10-year record of black carbon and dust from a Mera peak ice core (Nepal): variability and potential impact on melting of himalayan glaciers[J]. The Cryosphere, 2014, 8 (4): 1479-1496
[115]	Williamson C J, Cameron K A, Cook J M, et al. Glacier algae: a dark past and a darker future[J]. Frontiers in Microbiology, 2019: 510-524
[116]	Zhang Y L, Kang S C, Cong Z Y, et al. Light-absorbing impurities enhance glacier albedo reduction in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2017, 122 (13): 6915-6933
[117]	Gardelle J, Berthier E, Arnaud Y. Slight mass gain of Karakoram glaciers in the early twenty-first century[J]. Nature Geoscience, 2012, 5 (5): 322-325
[118]	Painter T H, Flanner M G, Kaser G, et al. End of the little ice age in the Alps forced by industrial black carbon[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2013, 110 (38): 15216-15221
[119]	Pellicciotti F, Stephan C, Miles E, et al. Mass-balance changes of the debris-covered glaciers in the Langtang Himal, Nepal, from 1974 to 1999[J]. Journal of Glaciology, 2015, 61 (226): 373-386
[120]	Sigl M, Abram N J, Gabrieli J, et al. 19th century glacier retreat in the Alps preceded the emergence of industrial black carbon deposition on high-alpine glaciers[J]. The Cryosphere, 2018, 12 (10): 3311-3331

青藏高原冰川物质平衡变化特征及其对气候变化响应的研究进展

Characteristics of glacier mass balance changes and response to climate change in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China

RichHTML

PDF

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

图/表 5

参考文献 120

相关文章 15

编辑推荐

Metrics

本文评价

[1]	范慧文青, 李宗省, 桂娟. 青藏高原可持续发展研究进展与展望[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2025, 21(3): 400-413.
[2]	仕仁睿, 蒋兴文, 王遵娅. 青藏高原雨季建立进程及其环流因子分析[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2025, 21(1): 91-101.
[3]	吴青柏, 徐晓明, 贺建桥, 姚晓军, 张中琼. 青藏高原冰冻圈变化对工程的影响[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2025, 21(1): 22-31.
[4]	欧阳志云, 张观石, 应凌霄. 气候变化对青藏高原生态系统分布范围和生态功能的影响研究进展[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2024, 20(6): 699-710.
[5]	牛振国, 景雨航, 张东启, 张波. 气候变化背景下青藏高原湿地生态系统响应特征：回顾与展望[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2024, 20(5): 509-518.
[6]	车彦军, 陈丽花, 吴佳康, 谷来磊, 武荣, 张东启, 丁明虎. 青藏高原冰前湖与冰川相互作用研究进展[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2024, 20(5): 519-533.
[7]	马安静, 张明礼, 周志雄, 王永斌, 王成福. 近地表水汽密度对多年冻土区地表辐射的影响研究——以北麓河地区为例[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2024, 20(3): 304-315.
[8]	包文, 段安民, 游庆龙, 胡蝶. 青藏高原气候变化及其对水资源影响的研究进展[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2024, 20(2): 158-169.
[9]	胡佳怡, 赵林, 王翀, 胡国杰, 邹德富, 幸赞品, 焦梦迪, 乔永平, 刘广岳, 杜二计. CLDAS地表温度产品在青藏高原多年冻土区的适用性评估与校正[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2024, 20(1): 10-25.
[10]	栾澜, 翟盘茂. 基于多源数据的青藏高原雨季降水特征变化分析[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2023, 19(2): 173-190.
[11]	张歆然, 陈昊明. CMIP6模式对青藏高原东坡暖季降水的模拟评估[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2022, 18(2): 129-141.
[12]	祁莉, 杨睿婷. 全球变暖下青藏高原东南侧常年南风强度的多模式结果比较分析[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2021, 17(4): 430-443.
[13]	吴芳营,游庆龙,谢文欣,张玲. 全球变暖1.5℃和2℃阈值时青藏高原气温的变化特征[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2019, 15(2): 130-139.
[14]	方一平,朱付彪,宜树华,邱孝枰,丁永建. 多年冻土对青藏高原草地生态承载力的贡献研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2019, 15(2): 150-157.
[15]	罗小青,徐建军. 青藏高原大气热源及其估算的不确定性因素[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2019, 15(1): 33-40.