气候变化研究进展 ›› 2025, Vol. 21 ›› Issue (3): 414-427.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2024.165

• 全球气候治理 • 上一篇    下一篇

《巴黎协定》后主要国家减缓目标制定和履约进展与前景评估

樊星(), 秦圆圆(), 丁鸿达, 高翔   

  1. 国家应对气候变化战略研究和国际合作中心,北京 100035
  • 收稿日期:2024-06-30 修回日期:2024-12-26 出版日期:2025-05-30 发布日期:2025-05-30
  • 通讯作者: 秦圆圆,女,助理研究员,qinyy@ncsc.org.cn
  • 作者简介:樊星,女,副研究员,fanxing@ncsc.org.cn

Assessment of major Parties’ mitigation target setting and the progress and prospects on mitigation implementation after the Paris Agreement

FAN Xing(), QIN Yuan-Yuan(), DING Hong-Da, GAO Xiang   

  1. National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation (NCSC), Beijing 100035, China
  • Received:2024-06-30 Revised:2024-12-26 Online:2025-05-30 Published:2025-05-30

摘要:

在COP28达成的《巴黎协定》下首次全球盘点成果中,明确和肯定了《巴黎协定》的达成对于推动全球设定气候行动目标和提升各方气候行动的重要作用,也重申了各方通过制定和落实国家自主贡献(NDC)在实现《巴黎协定》的温度目标方面取得了重大集体进展。从《巴黎协定》缔约方的减缓目标制定进展来看,大部分缔约方通过NDC和长期温室气体低排放发展战略提出了2030年和长期减缓气候目标,其2030年减缓目标类型和长期净零目标表述各异。文中通过对主要国家2030年减缓目标履约进展和前景进行评估,发现发达国家2030年目标履约情况和前景并不乐观,即使在额外措施情景下多数发达国家仍严重偏离目标;主要发展中国家减排目标类型与其自身排放阶段和特点密切相关,多数发展中国家按最新排放趋势推算处于实现目标的在轨状态,但距离目标的实现仍有差距,需更多资金、技术和能力建设支持以落实和强化举措。在目标制定阶段,建议中国后续NDC的编制顺应《巴黎协定》要求和全球趋势,以自主决定的方式回应如何考虑全球盘点的要求。在履约实施阶段,建议发达国家强化减缓行动,切实履行其带头减排的义务并为发展中国家提供充足的资金、技术和能力建设支持;建议充分利用减缓议题的对话平台加强各方关于减缓政策措施经验的对话交流,强化国际合作开展减缓行动。

关键词: 《巴黎协定》, 主要国家, 减缓, 实施, 全球气候治理

Abstract:

In the outcome of the first Global Stocktake (GST) under the Paris Agreeemnt, the important role of the Paris Agreement is clarified and affirmed in promoting the collective global climate goals and enhancing the climate actions by all Parties, and the significant collective progress made by all Parties is reaffirmed in achieving the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement through the development and implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Regarding the progress in formulating mitigation targets by Parties to the Paris Agreement, most Parties have proposed 2030 and long-term climate mitigation targets through their NDCs and long-term low-emission development strategies, the types of 2030 mitigation targets and the expressions of long-term net-zero targets are diverse. Through an assessment of the progress and the prospects of major Parties in implementing their 2030 mitigation targets, it is found that the performance and prospects of developed countries in achieving their 2030 targets are not optimistic, and most developed countries still deviate significantly from the track on achieving their targets even with additional measures. The mitigation targets types that chosen by major developing countries are closely related to their own emission stages and characteristics. Based on the latest emission trends, most developing countries are assessed as on track but with a gap between then and their targets. Developing countries are in need for larger scale of financial, technology, and capacity building support to implement and strengthen their mitigation actions. In the target-setting stage, it is recommended that China’s subsequent NDCs should comply with the requirements of the Paris Agreement and the global trends, and respond how the NDC is informed by the outcome of GST. During the implementation phase of the agreement, it is recommended that developed countries strengthen their mitigation actions, effectively fulfill their obligations of taking the lead on mitigation, and provide sufficient financial, technology, and capacity building support to developing countries. It is suggested to make good use of the dialogue platform such as the mitigation global dialogue to strengthen the exchange of experiences on mitigation policy measures among all Parties, and to enhance international cooperation in carrying out mitigation actions.

Key words: Paris Agreement, Major Parties, Mitigation, Implement, Global climate governance

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