基于气候因子框架的气候变化对能源系统的影响评估

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2024.277

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2025, Vol. 21 ›› Issue (3): 353-363.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2024.277

基于气候因子框架的气候变化对能源系统的影响评估

曲洋¹^,²^,³(), 王铭铭⁴, 周方卓⁵, 黄俊灵¹^,⁶, 常世彦¹^,²^,⁷()

1.清华大学-中国长江三峡集团有限公司气候变化治理机制与绿色低碳转型战略联合研究中心，北京 100084
2.清华大学能源环境经济研究所，北京 100084
3.中国社会科学院生态文明研究所，北京 100710
4.中国人民大学人口与健康学院，北京 100872
5.北京大学城市与环境学院，北京 100871
6.三峡集团国际清洁能源研究室，北京 100038
7.清华-力拓资源能源与可持续发展研究中心，北京 100084

收稿日期:2024-10-25 修回日期:2025-02-05 出版日期:2025-05-30 发布日期:2025-05-06
通讯作者: 常世彦，女，副研究员，changshiyan@tsinghua.edu.cn
作者简介:曲洋，女，助理研究员，yangqu0317@outlook.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(72140004);中国长江三峡集团有限公司科研项目(202303160)

Assessment of climate change impacts on energy systems based on Climatic Impact Driver framework

QU Yang¹^,²^,³(), WANG Ming-Ming⁴, ZHOU Fang-Zhuo⁵, HUANG Jun-Ling¹^,⁶, CHANG Shi-Yan¹^,²^,⁷()

1. Tsinghua University?China Three Gorges Corporation Joint Research Center for Climate Governance Mechanism and Green Low-Carbon Transformation Strategy, Beijing 100084, China
2. Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
3. Institute of Ecological Civilization, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 100710, China
4. School of Population and Health, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China
5. College of Urban and Environmental Science, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
6. International Clean Energy Research Office, China Three Gorges Corporation, Beijing 100038, China
7. Tsinghua?Rio Tinto Joint Research Centre for Resources, Energy and Sustainable Development, Beijing 100084, China

Received:2024-10-25 Revised:2025-02-05 Online:2025-05-30 Published:2025-05-06

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

长期变暖及极端天气气候事件将对能源供给与需求产生显著影响，理解和评估气候变化对能源系统的影响对于降低能源转型风险至关重要。文中基于IPCC第六次评估报告（AR6）提出的“产生影响的气候因子”（CID）框架，采取文献综述的方法，系统梳理了气候变化对能源供给和需求的影响及机制。研究显示，CID框架有助于全面评估气候变化对能源系统的影响和风险。风、冷热、干湿、冰雪和其他CID类型对能源系统有较大影响。有必要将气候变化影响和风险纳入能源和电力系统的常规规划中，将气候变化引起的长期变暖和极端天气气候事件作为重要因素加以考虑，以构建具有气候韧性的能源和电力系统。

关键词: 气候变化, 产生影响的气候因子（CID）, 能源系统

Abstract:

Long-term warming and extreme weather events will have significant impacts on energy supply and demand. Understanding and assessing the effects of climate change on energy systems is crucial for mitigating risks associated with energy transition. Based on the Climatic Impact Drivers (CID) framework proposed in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), the impacts and mechanisms of climate change on energy supply and demand are systematically combed in this review. The findings indicate that the CID framework is effective in comprehensively evaluating the impacts and risks of climate change on energy systems. Key CID types, including wind, heat and cold, wet and dry, snow and ice, and other, have significant effects on energy systems. It is essential to incorporate the impacts and risks of climate change into the regular planning of energy and power systems, considering long-term warming and extreme weather events as critical factors, to build climate-resilient energy and power systems.

Key words: Climate change, Climatic Impact-Driver (CID), Energy system

曲洋, 王铭铭, 周方卓, 黄俊灵, 常世彦. 基于气候因子框架的气候变化对能源系统的影响评估[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2025, 21(3): 353-363.

QU Yang, WANG Ming-Ming, ZHOU Fang-Zhuo, HUANG Jun-Ling, CHANG Shi-Yan. Assessment of climate change impacts on energy systems based on Climatic Impact Driver framework[J]. Climate Change Research, 2025, 21(3): 353-363.

图/表 2

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基于气候因子框架的气候变化对能源系统的影响评估

Assessment of climate change impacts on energy systems based on Climatic Impact Driver framework

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