基于CMIP6多模式的南水北调西线工程区未来气候变化预估

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2024.244

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2025, Vol. 21 ›› Issue (3): 340-352.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2024.244

基于CMIP6多模式的南水北调西线工程区未来气候变化预估

石英¹^,²(), 徐影²(), 巢清尘¹^,², 张梦然³, 韩振宇¹^,², 王荣²

1.国家气候中心气候系统预测与变化应对全国重点实验室/中国气象局气候预测研究重点开放实验室，北京 100081
2.中国气象局国家气候中心，北京 100081
3.中国南水北调集团有限公司，北京 100036

收稿日期:2024-09-14 修回日期:2024-11-04 出版日期:2025-05-30 发布日期:2025-05-06
通讯作者: 徐影，女，正研级高工，xuying@cma.gov.cn
作者简介:石英，女，研究员，shiying@cma.gov.cn
基金资助:
中国气象局青年创新团队“青藏高原气候变化及其影响”(CMA2023QN16);国家气候中心重点创新团队“第三极气候变化监测预估”(NCCCXTD007);国家重点研发计划资助项目(2017YFA0605002)

Climate change projection over the west route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project based on CMIP6 global climate models

SHI Ying¹^,²(), XU Ying²(), CHAO Qing-Chen¹^,², ZHANG Meng-Ran³, HAN Zhen-Yu¹^,², WANG Rong²

1. State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management/China Meteorological Administration Climate Studies Key Laboratory, National Climate Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
2. National Climate Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
3. China South-to-North Water Transfer Group Co., Ltd., Beijing 100036, China

Received:2024-09-14 Revised:2024-11-04 Online:2025-05-30 Published:2025-05-06

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于国际耦合模式比较计划第六阶段（CMIP6）的24个全球气候模式结果，预估了SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5（分别代表低、中和高排放情景）3种温室气体排放情景下，南水北调西线工程区（分为水源区和受水区）未来气候变化，结果显示：在不同温室气体排放情景下，2021—2100年水源区和受水区年平均气温均呈显著上升趋势，年平均降水和极端降水（以日最大降水量表征）均以增加为主，且随着排放情景的升高，变化幅度增大。从未来变化的空间分布来看，与基准期（1995—2014年）相比，多模式集合平均结果显示水源区和受水区21世纪近期（2021—2040年)、中期（2041—2060年）和末期（2081—2100年）年平均气温均将增加，年平均降水和极端降水将增多，且增幅随时间增大。从未来3个时段区域平均的变化看，所有模式模拟水源区和受水区年平均气温相对基准期均增加，且模式间的一致性较好；模拟年平均降水和极端降水变化则显示出较大的不确定性，总体以增加为主。综合来看，水源区未来降水的变化对南水北调西线工程的规划和建设实施是有利的，但同时也需科学理解预估结果的不确定性。

关键词: 南水北调西线工程区, 水源区, 受水区, 气候变化预估

Abstract:

Based on 24 global climate models participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), future climate changes in the west route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project (divided into two parts of the water source and receiving areas) was projected under the three scenarios of SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. Results show that under different emission scenarios, the annual mean temperature presents a significant increasing trend in the water source and receiving areas, and the annual mean precipitation and extreme precipitation (characterized by the maximum daily precipitation) are mainly increasing, with greater magnitude under higher emission scenarios. Relative to 1995-2014, increased annual mean temperature, precipitation and extreme precipitation in the water source and receiving areas at the near (2021-2040), mid (2041-2060) and end (2081-2100) of the 21st century can be found, with greater increase as time progresses. In the future three time periods, relative to 1995-2014, all the models show an increase in the annual mean temperature averaged in the water source and receiving areas, and the consistency among the models is good; The simulated annual mean precipitation and extreme precipitation present significant uncertainty, but increases can be mainly observed. Overall, the future changes in precipitation in the water source area are beneficial for the planning and implementation of the west route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project. Meanwhile, the uncertainty of the projection should be noted.

Key words: The west route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project, Water source area, Water receiving area, Climate change projection

石英, 徐影, 巢清尘, 张梦然, 韩振宇, 王荣. 基于CMIP6多模式的南水北调西线工程区未来气候变化预估[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2025, 21(3): 340-352.

SHI Ying, XU Ying, CHAO Qing-Chen, ZHANG Meng-Ran, HAN Zhen-Yu, WANG Rong. Climate change projection over the west route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project based on CMIP6 global climate models[J]. Climate Change Research, 2025, 21(3): 340-352.

图/表 10

表1 研究采用的24个全球气候模式简介

Table 1 Introduction of the models used in this study

图1 南水北调西线工程区地理位置(a)及地形分布(b) 注：图(a)中蓝线框出的为水源区，绿线框出的为受水区。

Fig. 1 Spatial distribution (a) and its topography (b) over the west route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project

图2 观测和全球模式模拟的南水北调西线工程区年平均气温(a~b)和降水(d~e)的分布及模拟与观测的差(c,f)

Fig. 2 Spatial distribution of observed and simulated annual mean temperature (a-b) and precipitation (d-e) over the west route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project and the difference (c, f) between the simulation and observation

表2 年平均气温、降水的空间相关系数、均方根误差和泰勒评分

Table 2 Spatial correlation coefficient, root-mean-square error and Taylor score of annual mean temperature and precipitation

图3 南水北调西线工程水源区（a,c）和受水区（b,d）区域平均的1981—2100年年平均气温和降水变化（相对于1995—2014年的变化）注：阴影区表示全球模式在不同温室气体排放情景下模拟结果的范围，下同。

Fig. 3 Changes of annual mean temperature (a-b) and precipitation (c-d) from 1981 to 2100 averaged in the water source (a, c) and receiving (b, d) areas of the west route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project (relative to 1995-2014)

图4 不同温室气体排放情景下南水北调西线水源区(a)和受水区(b) 21世纪近期、中期和末期区域平均的年平均气温变化（相对于1995—2014年）注：箱体上、下边界分别代表75%、25%分位数值，箱体内横线为中位数。

Fig. 4 Regional mean changes (relative to 1995-2014) in annual mean temperature in the source (a) and receiving (b) areas of the west route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project under different emission scenarios in the near, middle and end of the 21st century

图5 同图4，但为年平均降水

Fig. 5 Same as Fig. 4, but for annual mean precipitation

图6 同图3，但为RX1day

Fig. 6 Same as Fig. 3, but for maximum daily precipitation (RX1day)

图7 不同温室气体排放情景下南水北调西线工程区21世纪近期（a,d,g)、中期（b,e,h）和末期（c,f,i）RX1day的空间分布（相对于1995—2014年）

Fig. 7 Future changes of RX1day in the near (a, d, g), middle (b, e, h) and end (c, f, i) of the 21st century (relative to 1995-2014) under different emission scenarios

图8 同图4，但为RX1day

Fig. 8 Same as Fig. 4, but for RX1day

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基于CMIP6多模式的南水北调西线工程区未来气候变化预估

Climate change projection over the west route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project based on CMIP6 global climate models

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