Interpretation of the IPCC AR6 report on agricultural systems

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2022.035

Abstract

Abstract:

Compared with the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), the assessment object of the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) on agriculture extends from the crop production system to the food supply chain system, and the evidence of the adverse effects of climate change on crop production is strengthening. Climate change has changed the suitable planting areas of crops, making the planting boundaries of crops in the middle and high latitudes and temperate regions move to high latitudes and high altitudes. Anthropogenic warming has slowed crop yield growth, increased surface ozone concentrations have reduced crop yields, and methane emissions have exacerbated this adverse effect. Climate change aggravates crop diseases, pests and weeds, and the high incidence of extreme weather events exacerbates food insecurity and pushes up international food prices. Adaptation measures can help mitigate the adverse effects of climate change, and nature-based adaptation options have high potential for enhancing the climate resilience of crop production systems and ensuring food security. Starting from ensuring national food security and major strategic needs, the enlightenment of IPCC AR6 report on China’s agricultural response to climate change is as follows. Firstly, under the background of climate change, the transformation of crop planting suitable areas and the northward movement of planting belt have important strategic value, which need to be paid great attention to and reasonably plan the layout of agricultural production. Secondly, to strengthen the system and capacity-building of agro meteorological disasters and pest control to ensure the stability of grain production. Thirdly, to pay attention to the impact of climate change on international crop production and grain trade, coordinate food resources in domestic and international markets, and ensure food security; Finally, to promote efficient coordination between agricultural greenhouse gas emission reduction and crop production, and contribute to the realization of national emission reduction targets.

Key words: IPCC AR6, Climate change, Agricultural production, Food security

DUAN Ju-Qi, YUAN Jia-Shuang, XU Xin-Wu, JU Hui. Interpretation of the IPCC AR6 report on agricultural systems[J]. Climate Change Research, 2022, 18(4): 422-432.

Figures/Tables 3

Fig. 1 Synthesis of observed impacts of climate change on productivity by crop type and region

Fig. 2 Projected yield changes relative to the baseline period (2001-2010) without adaptation and with CO2 fertilization effects [12]

Fig. 3 The global effects of five biotic and abiotic stresses (soil nutrients, ozone, pests and diseases, heat stress and aridity) on soybean and wheat. (All data are presented for the 1˚×1˚ (latitude and longitude) grid squares where the mean production of soybean or wheat is larger than 500 t (0.0005 Tg)) [13]

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