Climate Change Research ›› 2020, Vol. 16 ›› Issue (6): 690-705.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2019.207

• Changes in Climate System • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Runoff response to 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ global warming for the Yangtze River basin

XU Wen-Xin1,2(), CHEN Jie1,2(), GU Lei1,2, ZHU Bi-Ying1,2, ZHUAN Mei-Jia1,2   

  1. 1 State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
    2 Hubei Key Laboratory of Water System Science for Sponge City Construction, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
  • Received:2019-09-09 Revised:2019-11-04 Online:2020-11-30 Published:2020-12-03
  • Contact: CHEN Jie;


Global warming impacts spatial and temporal distribution of hydrology and water resources. Understanding the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of future water resources variations is of great significance for the protection and development of the Yangtze River basin. In this study, bias corrected outputs of a multi-model ensemble were used to drive a two-parameter water balance model to investigate the runoff responses to 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ global warming targets as introduced by The Paris Agreement for the Yangtze River basin. The results showed that: (1) The bias corrected outputs of the multi-model ensemble have good agreement with observed annual mean precipitation and potential evapotranspiration patterns of the Yangtze River basin. (2) The two-parameter water balance model combining with parameter regionalization show reasonable performance in simulating monthly runoff in the Yangtze River basin. (3) Both the annual and seasonal runoffs are projected to increase under the 1.5℃ global warming. Compared to the reference period (1976-2005), the runoff is projected to increase by 5% for more than 50% of the third-level sub-basins under 1.5℃ global warming; that is projected to increase by 8% under the 2.0℃ global warming. This indicates that water resources in the Yangtze River basin will increase further under the 2.0℃ global warming. (4) In terms of spatial variability, the precipitation in the northern part of the Yangtze River basin is projected to increase more than other regions for both two warming scenarios. The distribution pattern of runoff increase is almost the same as the precipitation. The increasing amplitude of the runoff over the Hanjiang River basin is projected to be the highest across the whole basin.

Key words: 1.5℃ global warming, 2.0℃ global warming, Yangtze River basin, Bias correction method, Global climate model, Two-parameter water balance model

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