Climate Change Research ›› 2020, Vol. 16 ›› Issue (3): 276-286.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2019.050

• Changes in Climate System • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Projection of extreme precipitation in the Hanjiang River basin under different RCP scenarios

Qi-Mou ZHANG1,2,Run WANG1,2(),Tong JIANG3,4,Song-Sheng CHEN5   

  1. 1 School of Resource and Environmental Science, Hubei University, Wuhan 430062, China
    2 Water Resource Management & Policy Research Center, Hubei University, Wuhan 430062, China
    3 National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
    4 Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Institute for Disaster Risk Management/School of Geographic Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science &Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
    5 Bureau of Hydrology, Changjiang Water Resources Commission, Wuhan 430010, China
  • Received:2019-03-08 Revised:2019-05-31 Online:2020-05-30 Published:2020-06-15
  • Contact: Run WANG


Based on the daily precipitation data with different RCP scenarios from the five global climate models (GCMs) in the Fifth phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), also as the main models in the Inter-Sector Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation in the Hanjiang River basin in the period of 2016-2060 were analyzed with the indices maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation (RX5d), percentages of extreme precipitation in the annual total volume (PEP), annual total precipitation when daily precipitation greater than 95th percentile (R95p) and simple daily intensity index (SDII) under different scenarios. GFDL-ESM2M, the best GCM from the five, which is selected through the test of the simulation performance with the meteorological station data in the historical period of 1961-2005, was used to interpret the projection results. At the same time the other GCMs were also taken in the projection in order to show the uncertainty. The results are as follows. Under RCP4.5 scenario the extreme precipitation indices increase the most, in detail R95p, PEP and RX5day increase by 12.5%, 3.2 percentage points and 8.2% respectively, relative to the reference period of 1961-2005. SDII increases very slightly. PEP increases in all three RCP scenarios, especially more in the northwest and southeast of the basin area; R95p shows a certain amount of increase in the most basin area, while the southeastern and northern parts have more increase; RX5d increases under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, but it decreases under RCP8.5 scenario in general. As to the uncertainty of these four indices, SDII is the lowest, while RX5d is the highest. The regions with relatively higher projection uncertainty are mainly in the eastern, southeastern and northwestern parts of the basin.

Key words: Global climate model, RCP scenario, Extreme precipitation, Climate change projection

Copyright © Climate Change Research, All Rights Reserved.
Tel: (010)58995171 E-mail:
Powered by Beijing Magtech Co. Ltd