Climate Change Research ›› 2020, Vol. 16 ›› Issue (4): 491-504.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2019.111

• Impacts of Climate Change • Previous Articles     Next Articles

An ensemble projection of GDP and population exposure to high temperature events over Jing-Jin-Ji district based on high resolution combined dynamical and statistical downscaling datasets

LI Rou-Ke1,2(), HAN Zhen-Yu1(), XU Ying1, SHI Ying1, WU Jia1   

  1. 1 National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
    2 State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi'an 710075, China
  • Received:2019-05-16 Revised:2019-07-18 Online:2020-07-30 Published:2020-08-05
  • Contact: HAN Zhen-Yu;


Future changes of GDP and population exposure to high temperature in the 21st century over Jing-Jin-Ji district were investigated based on the high resolution (6.25 km) combined statistical and dynamical downscaling datasets under RCP4.5 scenario, as well as the population and GDP data under SSP2. Results show that, the high resolution downscaling projection could well reproduce the hazard distributions of high temperature events in the Jing-Jin-Ji district. At the end of the 21st century, the significantly increased frequency of sultry events over the southeastern plain and coastal areas of Jing-Jin-Ji district will be found, so will hot events in the midland of Hebei. The areas with high population and GDP exposure are mainly located in cities such as Beijing, Tianjin, Baoding, Shijiazhuang and Handan etc., who are featured by developed economy, convenient transportation and large population, and their surrounding areas. In the 21st century, the increasing GDP exposure over Jing-Jin-Ji district can also be found. The exposure average by the end of the 21st century is about 58.9 times of the reference period. All the cities also present a consistent increase. In the mid-21st century, the regional average of population exposure in Jing-Jin-Ji district will reach its maximum value as 2.3 times that of the reference period. But the average population exposure in Beijing, Zhangjiakou, Chengde and Tangshan will grow continuously in the 21st century. The change of GDP exposure mainly subjects to non-linear factors, and the contribution rate increases with time reaching 70.9% at the end of the 21st century. While the change of population exposure in the near and medium term of the 21st century mainly subjects to non-linear factors. The contribution rate of climate factors increases with time, reaching a dominant position at the end of the 21st century.

Key words: Regional climate model, Climate change, High temperature, Exposure, Jing-Jin-Ji district

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