“双碳”目标下中国能源供需演变路径规划模拟研究

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2022.286

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2023, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (5): 616-633.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2022.286

“双碳”目标下中国能源供需演变路径规划模拟研究

蔡立亚¹(), 郭剑锋², 石川³, 王浩彬³(), 朱荣琦⁴, 牛艳⁵, 薛志光⁶, 白若冰⁷, 计军平⁸, 段婧琳¹

1 国家电投集团科学技术研究院有限公司，北京 102209
2 中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院，北京 100190
3 清华大学环境学院，北京 100084
4 北京航空航天大学经济管理学院，北京 100191
5 清华大学电机系，北京 100084
6 清华大学工程物理系，北京 100084
7 清华大学建设管理系，北京 100084
8 哈尔滨工业大学(深圳)经济管理学院，深圳 518055

收稿日期:2022-12-27 修回日期:2023-10-23 出版日期:2023-09-30 发布日期:2023-07-17
通讯作者: 王浩彬，男，博士研究生，whb19@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn
作者简介:蔡立亚，女，高级经济师，loveparadise15@163.com
基金资助:
公司项目“企业绿色低碳领先指数研究”(C-TZH-202301)

Simulation research on the evolution pathway planning of energy supply and demand in China under the dual carbon targets

CAI Li-Ya¹(), GUO Jian-Feng², SHI Chuan³, WANG Hao-Bin³(), ZHU Rong-Qi⁴, NIU Yan⁵, XUE Zhi-Guang⁶, BAI Ruo-Bing⁷, JI Jun-Ping⁸, DUAN Jing-Lin¹

1 State Power Investment Corporation Research Institute, Beijing 102209, China
2 Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
3 School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
4 School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China
5 Department of Electrical Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
6 Department of Engineering Physics, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
7 Department of Construction Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
8 School of Economics and Management, Harbin Institute of Technology (Shenzhen), Shenzhen 518055, China

Received:2022-12-27 Revised:2023-10-23 Online:2023-09-30 Published:2023-07-17

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

能源低碳转型是实现碳达峰、碳中和的关键，关系到我国经济社会发展全局。基于LEAP能源系统模型，以电力行业为重点减排行业，提出中国中长期“双碳”发展路径构想，模拟多情景下的能源需求、能源供给、CO₂排放量和成本，分析能源配置的生态及经济影响。研究发现能源消费呈现“减煤稳油增气，电能替代加速”的局面，终端能源消费可在2040年前达峰，终端能源消费CO₂排放可在2030年前达峰，碳捕集利用与封存（CCUS）技术是实现CO₂减排，同时保持一定火电规模以维持电网安全稳定运行的重要手段，且未来逐步具有技术优势。最后，提出了持续推进碳排放总量和强度“双控”，以技术革新促进电力系统低碳转型，以及完善全国碳市场建设促进碳排放交易等三方面实现“双碳”目标的政策建议。

关键词: 碳达峰, 能源消费, LEAP模型, 碳捕集利用与封存（CCUS）, 碳减排

Abstract:

Low carbon energy transition is essential to achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality, and is related to economic and social development of China. Based on the LEAP energy system model, and with the electric power industry as the key emission reduction sector, the medium- and long-term pathway was explored for China to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality, energy demand, energy supply, CO₂ emissions and costs were simulated in multiple scenarios, and the ecological and economic impacts of energy allocation were analyzed. It can be concluded that energy consumption shows a trend of reducing coal, stabilizing oil, increasing gas, and accelerating electricity substitution. Final energy consumptions could reach the peak before 2040 and CO₂emissions from final energy consumptions could reach the peak before 2030. The carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) technology is crucial to achieving CO₂ emission targets, while maintaining a certain amount of thermal power capacity to ensure the stability and safety of the power grid, and will gradually have the technical advantage in the future. At last, this paper proposes policy recommendations for achieving the dual carbon goals in terms of promoting controls of total carbon emissions and intensity, accelerating the low-carbon transformation of the power system by CCUS and other technologies innovations, and improving the construction of the national carbon market to promote carbon emissions trading.

Key words: Carbon emission peak, Energy consumption, LEAP model, Carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS), Carbon emission reduction

蔡立亚, 郭剑锋, 石川, 王浩彬, 朱荣琦, 牛艳, 薛志光, 白若冰, 计军平, 段婧琳. “双碳”目标下中国能源供需演变路径规划模拟研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2023, 19(5): 616-633.

CAI Li-Ya, GUO Jian-Feng, SHI Chuan, WANG Hao-Bin, ZHU Rong-Qi, NIU Yan, XUE Zhi-Guang, BAI Ruo-Bing, JI Jun-Ping, DUAN Jing-Lin. Simulation research on the evolution pathway planning of energy supply and demand in China under the dual carbon targets[J]. Climate Change Research, 2023, 19(5): 616-633.

图/表 17

图1 能源供需模型结构

Fig. 1 Model structure of energy demand and supply

表1 中国GDP及增长率前景预测

Table 1 Assumptions of China’s GDP and growth rate

表2 单位GDP能耗增长率

Table 2 Growth rate of energy intensity

表3 我国城乡人口预测

Table 3 Assumptions of China’s urban and rural population

表4 情景描述

Table 4 Scenario description

图2 各情景下的电源结构

Fig. 2 Electricity capacity structure in scenarios

图3 2020—2060年终端能源需求量

Fig. 3 Final energy demand in 2020-2060

图4 2020—2060年各行业终端能源需求结构注：其他油品主要包含石油沥青和液化石油气。

Fig. 4 Industrial final energy demand structure in 2020-2060

图5 2025—2060年煤油气供应量

Fig. 5 Coal, oil and gas supply in 2025-2060

图6 2020—2060年各情景下发电结构

Fig. 6 Power generation structure by scenarios in 2020-2060

图7 2020—2060年终端能源需求CO2排放量

Fig. 7 CO2 emissions from final energy consumption in 2020-2060

图8 2020—2060年各部门终端能源消费CO2排放量注：其他油品主要包含石油沥青和液化石油气。

Fig. 8 CO2 emissions of final energy consumption by sectors in 2020-2060

图9 2020—2060年各情景下的发电部门排放

Fig. 9 CO2 emissions from power generation industry by scenarios in 2020-2060

图10 2020—2060年废弃物处理碳减排潜力

Fig. 10 CO2 emissions reduction potential of waste disposal in 2020-2060

图11 2020—2060年各情景下单位GDP碳排放量

Fig. 11 CO2 emissions per unit of GDP in 2020-2060

图12 2020—2060年各排放情景发电成本

Fig. 12 Costs of power generation by scenarios in 2020-2060

图13 2040—2060年CCUS碳捕集成本与碳价的比较

Fig. 13 Comparison of carbon capture costs and carbon price in 2040-2060

参考文献 51

[1]	何建坤. 碳达峰碳中和目标导向下能源和经济的低碳转型[J]. 环境经济研究, 2021, 6 (1): 1-9.
	He J K. Low carbon transformation of energy and economy aiming for the peaking of carbon emission and carbon neutrality[J]. Journal of Environmental Economics, 2021, 6 (1): 1-9 (in Chinese)
[2]	辛保安, 单葆国, 李琼慧, 等. “双碳”目标下“能源三要素”再思考[J]. 中国电机工程学报, 2022, 42 (9): 3117-3126.
	Xin B A, Shan B G, Li Q H, et al. Rethinking of the “three elements of energy” toward carbon peak and carbon neutrality[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2022, 42 (9): 3117-3126 (in Chinese)
[3]	王灿, 张雅欣. 碳中和愿景的实现路径与政策体系[J]. 中国环境管理, 2020, 12 (6): 58-64.
	Wang C, Zhang Y X. Implementation pathway and policy system of carbon neutrality vision[J]. Chinese Journal of Environmental Management, 2020, 12 (6): 58-64 (in Chinese)
[4]	胡鞍钢. 中国实现2030年前碳达峰目标及主要途径[J]. 北京工业大学学报 (社会科学版), 2021, 21 (3): 1-15.
	Hu A G. China’s goal of achieving carbon peak by 2030 and its main approaches[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Technology (Social Sciences Edition), 2021, 21 (3): 1-15 (in Chinese)
[5]	张希良, 黄晓丹, 张达, 等. 碳中和目标下的能源经济转型路径与政策研究[J]. 管理世界, 2022, 38 (1): 35-66.
	Zhang X L, Huang X D, Zhang D, et al. Energy economy transition pathway and policy research under carbon neutral target[J]. Management World, 2022, 38 (1): 35-66 (in Chinese)
[6]	项目综合报告编写组. 《中国长期低碳发展战略与转型路径研究》综合报告[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2020, 30 (11): 1-25.
	Project General Report Writing Team. General report study on China’s long-term low carbon development strategy and transition pathway[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2020, 30 (11): 1-25 (in Chinese)
[7]	刘晓龙, 崔磊磊, 李彬, 等. 碳中和目标下中国能源高质量发展路径研究[J]. 北京理工大学学报 (社会科学版), 2021, 23 (3): 1-8.
	Liu X L, Cui L L, Li B, et al. Research on the high-quality development path of China’s energy industry under the target of carbon neutralization[J]. Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology (Social Sciences Edition), 2021, 23 (3): 1-8 (in Chinese)
[8]	段宏波, 汪寿阳. 中国的挑战: 全球温控目标从2℃到1.5℃的战略调整[J]. 管理世界, 2019, 35 (10): 50-63.
	Duan H B, Wang S Y. China’s challenge: strategic adjustment of the global temperature control target from 2℃to 1.5℃[J]. Management World, 2019, 35 (10): 50-63 (in Chinese)
[9]	姜克隽. 实现多种目标下的能源和经济转型路径[J]. 阅江学刊, 2022, 14 (1): 34-43, 172.
	Jiang K J. Energy and economic transformation paths to achieve multiple goals[J]. Yuejiang Academic Journal, 2022, 14 (1): 34-43, 172 (in Chinese)
[10]	周孝信, 赵强, 张玉琼. “双碳”目标下我国能源电力系统发展前景和关键技术[J]. 中国电力企业管理, 2021 (31): 14-17.
	Zhou X X, Zhao Q, Zhang Y Q. Development prospect and key technologies of China’s energy and power system under the “dual carbon” target[J]. China Power Enterprise Management, 2021 (31): 14-17 (in Chinese)
[11]	Fang K, Li C, Tang Y, et al. China’s pathways to peak carbon emissions: new insights from various industrial sectors[J]. Applied Energy, 2022, 306: 118039 doi: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.118039 URL
[12]	刘新建, 宋中炜, 吴洁. 碳中和目标下能源经济系统转型: 碳定价与可再生能源政策作用有多大?[J/OL]. 中国管理科学, 2023 [2023-02-27]. https://doi.org/10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.0586.
	Liu X J, Song Z W, Wu J. Transforming the energy economic system with the carbon neutrality goal: how much can the carbon pricing and renewable energy policy contribute?[J/OL]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2023 [2023-02-27]. https://doi.org/10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.0586 (in Chinese)
[13]	李丹阳, 陈文颖. 碳中和目标下全球交通能源转型路径[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2023, 19 (2): 1-13.
	Li D Y, Chen W Y. Global transportation energy transition pathways towards carbon neutrality targets[J]. Climate Change Research, 2023, 19 (2): 1-13 (in Chinese)
[14]	Bataille C, Melton N. Energy efficiency and economic growth: a retrospective CGE analysis for Canada from 2002 to 2012[J]. Energy Economics, 2017, 64: 118-130 doi: 10.1016/j.eneco.2017.03.008 URL
[15]	Zhou N, Fridley D, Khanna N Z, et al. China’s energy and emissions outlook to 2050: perspectives from bottom-up energy end-use model[J]. Energy Policy, 2013, 53: 51-62 doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.09.065 URL
[16]	Heaps C G. LEAP: the low emissions analysis platform[M/OL]. 2020 [2022-10-25]. https://leap.sei.org
[17]	黄莹, 郭洪旭, 廖翠萍, 等. 基于LEAP模型的城市交通低碳发展路径研究: 以广州市为例[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2019, 15 (6): 670-683.
	Huang Y, Guo H X, Liao C P, et al. Study on low-carbon development path of urban transportation sector based on LEAP model: take Guangzhou as an example[J]. Climate Change Research, 2019, 15 (6): 670-683 (in Chinese)
[18]	Cai L, Luo J, Wang M, et al. Pathways for municipalities to achieve carbon emission peak and carbon neutrality: a study based on the LEAP model[J]. Energy, 2023, 262: 125435 doi: 10.1016/j.energy.2022.125435 URL
[19]	Cai L, Duan J, Lu X, et al. Pathways for electric power industry to achieve carbon emissions peak and carbon neutrality based on LEAP model: a case study of state-owned power generation enterprise in China[J]. Computers & Industrial Engineering, 2022: 108334
[20]	刘俊伶, 孙一赫, 王克, 等. 中国交通部门中长期低碳发展路径研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2018, 14 (5): 513-521.
	Liu J L, Sun Y H, Wang K, et al. Study on mid- and long-term low carbon development pathway for China’s transport sector[J]. Climate Change Research, 2018, 14 (5): 513-521 (in Chinese)
[21]	Liu Y, Chen S, Jiang K, et al. The gaps and pathways to carbon neutrality for different type cities in China[J]. Energy, 2021: 122596
[22]	樊星, 李路, 秦圆圆, 等. 主要发达经济体从碳达峰到碳中和的路径及启示[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2023, 19 (1): 102-115.
	Fan X, Li L, Qin Y Y, et al. The pathway from carbon peak to carbon neutrality in major developed economies and its insights[J]. Climate Change Research, 2023, 19 (1): 102-115 (in Chinese)
[23]	McDonald A, Schrattenholzer L. Learning rates for energy technologies[J]. Energy Policy, 2001, 29 (4): 255-261 doi: 10.1016/S0301-4215(00)00122-1 URL
[24]	余碧莹, 赵光普, 安润颖, 等. 碳中和目标下中国碳排放路径研究[J]. 北京理工大学学报 (社会科学版), 2021, 23 (2): 17-24.
	Yu B Y, Zhao G P, An R Y, et al. Research on China’s CO₂ emission pathway under carbon neutral target[J]. Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology (Social Science Edition), 2021, 23 (2): 17-24 (in Chinese)
[25]	中国石油. 世界与中国能源展望[R]. 中国石油天然气集团有限公司, 2021.
	China National Petroleum Corporation CNPC. World and China energy outlook[R]. CNPC, 2021 (in Chinese)
[26]	国网能源研究院有限公司. 中国能源电力发展展望[M]. 北京: 中国电力出版社, 2021: 32-35.
	State Grid Energy Research Institure. China energy & electricity outlook 2021[M]. Beijing: China Electric Power Press, 2021: 32-35 (in Chinese)
[27]	李国志, 刘美瑜. 中国城镇居民直接碳排放因素分解研究[J]. 环境影响评价, 2017, 39 (4): 93-96.
	Li G Z, Liu M Y. Study on factorization of urban residents direct carbon emissions in China[J]. Environmental Impact Assessment, 2017, 39 (4): 93-96 (in Chinese)
[28]	刘岱淞. 上海市居民生活用能碳排放的因素分解研究[J]. 上海经济, 2021, 2: 56-73.
	Liu D S. Study on factor decomposition of carbon emissions from household energy use in Shanghai[J]. Shanghai Economy, 2021, 2: 56-73 (in Chinese)
[29]	张宇轩, 苏义坤. 面向可持续发展的农村居民生活用能结构转型影响因素研究[J]. 价值工程, 2020, 39 (8): 292-298.
	Zhang Y X, Su Y K. Research on the influencing factors of the transformation of rural residents’ living energy use structure for sustainable development[J]. Value Engineering, 2020, 39 (8): 292-298 (in Chinese)
[30]	国家统计局. 中国统计年鉴2021[M]. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 2021.
	National Bureau of Statistics. China statistical yearbook 2021[M]. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2021 (in Chinese)
[31]	国家发展和改革委员会. 国家人口发展规划(2016—2030年)[R/OL]. 2016 [2022-12-27]. https://www.ndrc.gov.cn/fggz/fzzlgh/gjjzxgh/201705/t20170502_1196730.html.
	National Development and Reform Commission. National population development plan (2016-2030)[R/OL]. 2016 [2022-12-27]. https://www.ndrc.gov.cn/fggz/fzzlgh/gjjzxgh/201705/t20170502_1196730.html (in Chinese)
[32]	欧阳慧, 李智, 李沛霖. “十四五”时期我国城镇化率变化趋势及政策含义[J]. 城市发展研究, 2021, 28 (6): 1-9.
	Ouyang H, Li Z, Li P L. Trend and policy implication of urbanization rate in China during the 14th Five Year Plan period[J]. Urban Development Studies, 2021, 28 (6): 1-9 (in Chinese)
[33]	UN. World population prospects[R]. UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division, 2019
[34]	育娲人口. 中国人口预测报告2021版[R]. 育娲人口研究, 2021.
	Yuwa Population. China population projections report 2021[R]. Yuwa Population Research, 2021 (in Chinese)
[35]	张现苓, 翟振武, 陶涛. 中国人口负增长: 现状、未来与特征[J]. 人口研究, 2020, 44 (3): 3-20.
	Zhang X L, Zhai Z W, Tao T. China’s negative population growth: present, future and characteristics[J]. Population Research, 2020, 44 (3): 3-20 (in Chinese)
[36]	陈霞, 肖岚. Logistic模型的改进与中国人口预测[J]. 成都信息工程大学学报, 2020, 35 (2): 239-243.
	Chen X, Xiao L. Improved logistic model and China population forecast[J]. Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology, 2020, 35 (2): 239-243 (in Chinese)
[37]	IEA International Energy Agency, NEA (Nuclear Energy Agency). Projected costs of generating electricity[R]. IEA, NEA, 2020
[38]	国家统计局能源统计司. 中国能源统计年鉴2021[M]. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 2022: 94-99.
	Office of Energy Statistics National Bureau of Statistics. China energy statistical yearbook 2021[M]. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2022: 94-99 (in Chinese)
[39]	国家发展改革委, 国家能源局等. “十四五”可再生能源发展规划[R/OL]. 2021 [2022-12-27]. http://zfxxgk.nea.gov.cn/1310611148_16541341407541n.pdf.
	National Development and Reform Commission, National Energy Administration. “Fourteen Five” renewable energy development plan[R/OL]. 2021 [2022-12-27]. http://zfxxgk.nea.gov.cn/1310611148_16541341407541n.pdf (in Chinese)
[40]	周孝信. 双碳目标下我国能源电力系统发展前景和关键技术[R]. 上海: SNEC第十五届全球光伏大会, 2021.
	Zhou X X. Prospects and key technologies for the development of China’s energy and power system under the double carbon target[R]. Shanghai:SNEC 15th (2021) International Photovoltaic Power Generation Conference, 2021 (in Chinese)
[41]	朱立志, 刘静, 向猛. 我国农业生产能源消费变化与趋势分析[J]. 环境经济, 2010 (12): 44-47.
	Zhu L Z, Liu J, Xiang M. Analysis of changes and trends of agricultural energy production consumption in China[J]. Evironmental Economy, 2010 (12): 44-47 (in Chinese)
[42]	王海林, 何建坤. 交通部门CO₂排放、能源消费和交通服务量达峰规律研究[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2018, 28 (2): 59-65.
	Wang H L, He J K. Peaking rule of CO₂ emissions, energy consumption and transport volume in transportation sector[J]. China Population Resources and Environment, 2018, 28 (2): 59-65 (in Chinese)
[43]	张车伟, 蔡翼飞. 2021人口与劳动绿皮书: 中国人口与劳动问题报告[M]. 北京: 社会科学文献出版社, 2021: 79-98.
	Zhang C W, Cai Y F. Green book of population and labor[M]. Beijing: Social Science Academic Press, 2021: 79-98 (in Chinese)
[44]	国务院. 2030年前碳达峰行动方案[R]. 国务院, 2021.
	The State Council. Carbon peaking action program by 2030[R]. The State Council, 2021 (in Chinese)
[45]	Sun H, Wang E, Li X, et al. Potential biomethane production from crop residues in China: contributions to carbon neutrality[J]. Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2021: 148
[46]	Kaza S, Yao L, Bhada-Tata P, et al. What a waste 2.0: a global snapshot of solid waste management to 2050[R]. World Bank Publications, 2018
[47]	Chang H N, Kim N J, Kang J, et al. Biomass-derived volatile fatty acid platform for fuels and chemicals[J]. Biotechnology and Bioprocess Engineering, 2010, 15 (1): 1-10 doi: 10.1007/s12257-009-3070-8 URL
[48]	张亚雷. 污水处理低碳技术的现状与评价[J]. 质量与认证, 2022 (8): 78-80.
	Zhang Y L. Status and evaluation of low carbon technologies for wastewater treatment[J]. Quality and Certification, 2022 (8): 78-80 (in Chinese)
[49]	付鹏, 徐国平, 李兴华, 等. 我国生物质发电行业发展现状与趋势及碳减排潜力分析[J]. 工业安全与环保, 2021, 47: 48-52.
	Fu P, Xu G P, Li X H, et al. Analysis of the development status and trends of China’s biomass power industry and carbon emission reduction potential[J]. Industrial Safety and Environmental Protection, 2021, 47: 48-52
[50]	科学技术部社会发展科技司. 中国碳捕集利用与封存技术发展路线图 (2019)[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2019: 12.
	Department of Social Development Science and Technology, Ministry of Science and Technology. Roadmap for carbon capture utilization and storage technology development in China (2019)[M]. Beijing: Science Press, 2019: 12 (in Chinese)
[51]	蔡博峰, 李琦, 张贤, 等. 中国二氧化碳捕集利用与封存 (CCUS) 年度报告 (2021): 中国CCUS 路径研究[R]. 生态环境部环境规划院, 中国科学院武汉岩土力学研究所, 中国21世纪议程管理中心, 2021.
	Cai B F, Li Q, Zhang X, et al. Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage (CCUS) annual report (2021) in China: China’s CCUS pathway research[R]. Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning, Institute of Rock and Soil Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, The Administrative Center for China’s Agenda 21, 2021 (in Chinese)

“双碳”目标下中国能源供需演变路径规划模拟研究

Simulation research on the evolution pathway planning of energy supply and demand in China under the dual carbon targets

RichHTML

PDF

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

图/表 17

参考文献 51

相关文章 15

编辑推荐

Metrics

本文评价

[1]	王睿, 张赫, 张韵, 黄雅哲. 基于动态改进等比例法的省级CO₂排放总量目标分解研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2023, 19(2): 238-248.
[2]	杨姗姗, 郭豪, 杨秀, 李政. 双碳目标下建立碳排放总量控制制度的思考与展望[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2023, 19(2): 191-202.
[3]	樊星, 李路, 秦圆圆, 高翔. 主要发达经济体从碳达峰到碳中和的路径及启示[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2023, 19(1): 102-115.
[4]	李品, 谢晓敏, 黄震. 德国能源转型进程及对中国的启示[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2023, 19(1): 116-126.
[5]	彭雪婷, 吕昊东, 张贤. IPCC AR6报告解读：全球碳捕集利用与封存（CCUS）技术发展评估[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2022, 18(5): 580-590.
[6]	曾桉, 谭显春, 王毅, 高瑾昕. 国际气候投融资监测、报告与核证制度及启示[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2022, 18(2): 215-229.
[7]	张海军, 段茂盛. 中国试点ETS的碳减排效果评估——基于分省高耗能工业子行业数据的分析[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2021, 17(5): 579-589.
[8]	王敏, 冯相昭, 安祺, 卓岳, 赵梦雪, 杜晓林, 王鹏. 基于脱钩指数和LMDI的青海省绿色低碳发展策略研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2021, 17(5): 598-607.
[9]	何峰, 刘峥延, 邢有凯, 高玉冰, 毛显强. 中国水泥行业节能减排措施的协同控制效应评估研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2021, 17(4): 400-409.
[10]	冯相昭, 赵梦雪, 王敏, 杜晓林, 田春秀, 高霁. 中国交通部门污染物与温室气体协同控制模拟研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2021, 17(3): 279-288.
[11]	原嫄, 孙欣彤. 城市化、产业结构、能源消费、经济增长与碳排放的关联性分析——基于中国省际收入水平异质性的实证研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2020, 16(6): 738-747.
[12]	陈怡, 田川, 曹颖, 刘强, 郑晓奇. 中国电力行业碳排放达峰及减排潜力分析[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2020, 16(5): 632-640.
[13]	刘俊伶,孙一赫,王克,邹骥,孔英. 中国交通部门中长期低碳发展路径研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2018, 14(5): 513-521.
[14]	崔铁宁, 鲁婷. 城市公共自行车自愿碳减排机制初探——以北京市为例[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2016, 12(2): 112-117.
[15]	许金华范英. 中国水泥行业节能潜力和CO²减排潜力分析[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2013, 9(5): 341-349.