IPCC AR6报告解读：全球碳捕集利用与封存（CCUS）技术发展评估

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2022.140

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

近年来,碳捕集利用与封存（CCUS）作为减缓气候变化的关键技术之一,得到国际社会广泛关注。政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）第六次评估报告（AR6）第三工作组报告对CCUS进行了重新定位,并围绕减排潜力、减排成本、综合效益及应用前景等方面,对CCUS相关技术进行了系统全面评估。结论显示,CCUS技术是全球气候目标实现不可或缺的减排技术组合,到21世纪中叶有潜力实现累积千亿吨级减排效应,但当前CCUS技术成熟度整体处于示范阶段,成本较高,减排潜力有待进一步释放。综合考虑CCUS可以有效降低巨额资产搁浅风险、具有良好社会环境效益等因素,我国应结合自身“富煤、贫油、少气”的资源禀赋和基本国情,将CCUS作为战略性技术,统筹政策顶层设计、加速技术体系构建、探索市场激励机制、加强国际科技合作,促进CCUS技术发展。

关键词: 碳捕集利用与封存（CCUS）, 技术评估, 减排潜力, 综合效益

Abstract:

In recent years, carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS), as one of the key technologies to address climate change, has attracted extensive attention from the international community. The Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) has repositioned CCUS, and assessed carbon capture and storage (CCS), carbon capture and utilization (CCU), bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS) systematically and comprehensively, with focusing on mitigation potential and cost, comprehensive benefits and application prospects. The results show that CCUS is an indispensable combination of emission reduction technologies for the realization of global climate targets, which has the potential to achieve cumulative hundred-billion tons reduction effects by the middle of the 21st century. However, the current maturity of CCUS technology is overall at the demonstration stage and the cost is high, with mitigation potential to be further released. Considering CCUS can effectively reduce the risk of huge amount of stranded assets and has good social and environmental benefits, it’s necessary for China to regard CCUS as a strategic technology under the context of its own resource endowment. To promote the development of CCUS, China should coordinate top design, accelerate the construction of technology system, explore market incentive mechanism, and strengthen international cooperation.

Key words: Carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS), Technology assessment, Mitigation potential, Integrative benefit

彭雪婷, 吕昊东, 张贤. IPCC AR6报告解读：全球碳捕集利用与封存（CCUS）技术发展评估[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2022, 18(5): 580-590.

PENG Xue-Ting, LYU Hao-Dong, ZHANG Xian. Interpretation of IPCC AR6 report on carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) technology development[J]. Climate Change Research, 2022, 18(5): 580-590.

图/表 7

图1 CCUS技术体系示意图[4]

Fig. 1 Schematic diagram of CCUS technology system [4]

表1 IPCC历次报告中CCUS技术定位演变

Table 1 The role evolution of CCUS technology in previous IPCC reports

图2 全球主要机构在不同情景下的CCUS减排贡献量[3,12,14,16⇓-18] 注：图中缺失的信息均表示该机构或该情景未做评估,故为空值。

Fig. 2 Assessment of CCUS mitigation potential for major global institutions under different scenarios [3,12,14,16⇓-18]

图3 工业CCUS技术成熟度[3] 注：TRL=技术成熟度;DRI=直接还原铁;EAF=电炉。

Fig. 3 Technical readiness level (TRL) of industrial CCUS [3]

表2 Costs of CCUS by several research institutions 美元/t

Table 2

图4 全球主要碳排放源加装CCUS的CO2减排成本[3,14,25-26]

Fig. 4 CO2 avoided cost of global major CO2 emission sources retrofitted with CCUS [3,14,25-26]

表3 2050年CO2不同利用路径成本与潜力评估[3]

Table 3 Costs and potential for different CO2 utilization pathways in 2050 [3]

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