气候变化研究进展 ›› 2013, Vol. 9 ›› Issue (5): 341-349.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2013.05.005

• 温室气体排放 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国水泥行业节能潜力和CO2减排潜力分析

许金华,范 英   

  1. 中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所能源与环境政策研究中心, 北京 100190
  • 收稿日期:2013-02-25 修回日期:2013-04-02 出版日期:2013-09-30 发布日期:2013-09-30
  • 通讯作者: 许金华 E-mail:xjh@casipm.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金;国家自然科学基金

Potential Energy Saving and CO2 Emission Reduction in China’s Cement Industry

Xu Jinhua, Fan Ying   

  • Received:2013-02-25 Revised:2013-04-02 Online:2013-09-30 Published:2013-09-30
  • Contact: XU JinHua E-mail:xjh@casipm.ac.cn
  • Supported by:

    National Natural Science Foundation of China (GZ601);National Natural Science Foundation of China (GZ601)

摘要: 中国水泥行业生产了全球水泥总产量的一半以上,能耗和CO2排放仅次于电力行业。通过国际比较和宏观经济驱动力分析,预估了水泥产量在2010—2030年间3种可能的发展趋势。采用基于工艺流程的自底向上核算方法,评估了每种产量趋势下中国水泥行业在2010—2030年间的节能潜力和CO2减排潜力。结果显示,相比基准情景,在最佳技术情景下,水泥行业存在13.4%~14.6%的节能潜力和15.3%~16.3%的CO2减排潜力,分别带来平均4.2亿t标煤的累积节能量和37.2亿t的累积CO2减排量。总体上,燃料和熟料替代措施的节能减排效应要优于能效提高措施。在3种CO2排放源中,过程减排约贡献了总减排量的42%,其次是燃烧减排(36%)和电力减排(22%)。

关键词: 节能潜力, CO2减排潜力, 中国, 水泥行业, 碳减排措施

Abstract: Three future cement output trends in 2010-2030 were developed based on international comparisons and macroeconomic drivers, and the potential energy saving and CO2 emission reduction were evaluated based on bottom-up calculation by process in China’s cement industry. The results reveal that, relative to current technology scenario, there exist energy-saving potential of 13.4%-14.6% and CO2 emission reduction potential of 15.3%-16.3% in China’s cement industry, which could bring cumulative final energy savings of average 420 million tons of standard coal and 3.72 billion tons of cumulative emission reduction under the best technology scenario. On the whole, effects of energy saving and carbon reduction from fuel and clinker substitution are higher than those from energy efficiency measures. Among three kinds of CO2 emission sources, process-related emission reduction accounts for about 42% of the total emission reductions, followed by fuel-related emission reduction (36%) and electricity-related reduction (22%).

Key words: energy saving potential, CO2 reduction potential, China, cement industry, carbon reduction measures

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