气候变化研究进展 ›› 2023, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (1): 116-126.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2022.119

• 对策论坛 • 上一篇    下一篇

德国能源转型进程及对中国的启示

李品1,2(), 谢晓敏3, 黄震3()   

  1. 1 上海交通大学中国城市治理研究院,上海 200030
    2 上海交通大学国际与公共事务学院,上海 200030
    3 上海交通大学碳中和发展研究院,上海 200240
  • 收稿日期:2022-05-18 修回日期:2022-09-03 出版日期:2023-01-30 发布日期:2022-10-31
  • 通讯作者: 黄震
  • 作者简介:李品,女,助理研究员,lipin1012@sjtu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家社科基金一般项目“我国‘一带一路’能源投资政策绿色效果评价与改进策略研究”(20BJY076)

The process of Germany energiewende and its enlightenment to China

LI Pin1,2(), XIE Xiao-Min3, HUANG Zhen3()   

  1. 1 China Institute of Urban Governance, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200030, China
    2 School of International and Public Affairs, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200030, China
    3 Carbon Neutral Research Institute, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China
  • Received:2022-05-18 Revised:2022-09-03 Online:2023-01-30 Published:2022-10-31
  • Contact: HUANG Zhen

摘要:

总结发达国家能源转型过程中的经验和教训,对中国推动能源转型和实现“双碳”目标具有重要意义。文中回顾了中国和德国电力结构的演变进程,阐述了中国和德国能源转型的机制,并以2022年3月19日为例,分析了德国电力系统灵活性调节的经验。研究表明,健全的法律体系为德国能源转型提供了重要保障,“煤炭委员会”和相关财政支持有效解决了煤电转型过程中的问题,电力市场化是发展可再生主体新型电力系统的重要前提,风力和光伏发电精准预测与管理是可再生能源消纳的关键,煤电和互联互通的欧洲电网是当前德国电力供给的重要保障,过于激进的退煤去核战略是造成2022年德国能源危机的重要原因。最后,从法律保障、市场改革和可再生能源预测与管理等方面提出了中国能源转型的政策建议。

关键词: 碳达峰碳中和, 德国能源转型, 电力价格, 100%可再生电力, 灵活性

Abstract:

Germany is a pioneer in the global energy transition. Both China and Germany have the characteristics of “rich coal, poor oil and little gas” resource endowment, high dependence of oil and natural gas on foreign countries, and uneven energy demand and distribution. Summarizing the experience and lessons from the energy transition process of Germany is of great significance for China to promote energy transition and achieve the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.

This paper introduces the evolution of electricity structure in China and Germany, elaborates the mechanism of energiewende in China and Germany, and analyzes the experience of Germany power system flexibility regulation taking March 19, 2022 as an example. Research shows that the sound legal system provides an important guarantee for Germany energy transformation, the German coal commission and relevant financial support have effectively solved relative problems in the process of coal to renewable, the liberalized power market is a prerequisite for developing a new power system with renewable energy as the main body, accurate prediction and management of wind and photovoltaic power generation are the key to renewable energy consumption, coal power and the interconnected European grid are important guarantees to ensure the stability of power supply in Germany, the overly aggressive strategy of removing coal and denuclearization are important reasons for the current German energy crisis.

In view of this, based on the experience of Germany’s energy transition and the lessons of the 2022 Germany energy crisis, this paper draws the following inspirations: adhere to the primary goal of energy security, vigorously develop new energy. Accelerate the construction of “double carbon” legal system to provide legal guarantee for promoting energy transformation. Continuously promote the reform of the power market and provide strong support for the construction of a new power system. Strengthen the accurate prediction and management of wind power and photovoltaic power generation, and improve the consumption level of wind power and photovoltaic power. Strengthen international cooperation and promote energy transformation in a coordinated manner.

Key words: Carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, Germany energiewende, Electricity prices, Renewable power, Flexibility

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