气候变化研究进展 ›› 2018, Vol. 14 ›› Issue (5): 513-521.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2018.052

• 温室气体排放 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国交通部门中长期低碳发展路径研究

刘俊伶1(),孙一赫2,王克2,邹骥2(),孔英1   

  1. 1 清华-伯克利深圳学院环境科学与新能源技术研究中心低碳经济与金融风险分析研究实验室,深圳 518055
    2 中国人民大学环境学院,北京 100872
  • 收稿日期:2018-04-16 修回日期:2018-07-04 出版日期:2018-11-30 发布日期:2018-09-30
  • 作者简介:刘俊伶,女,博士后, liujunling8838@gmail.com
  • 基金资助:
    中国人民大学科学研究基金(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金)“基于全球碳预算公平分配的主要国家减排目标评估”(17XNA014)

Study on mid- and long-term low carbon development pathway for China’s transport sector

Jun-Ling LIU1(),Yi-He SUN2,Ke WANG2,Ji ZOU2(),Ying KONG1   

  1. 1 Low Carbon Economy and Financial Risk Analysis Research Laboratory, Environmental Science and New Energy Technology Research Center, Tsinghua-Berkeley Shenzhen Institute, Shenzhen 518055, China
    2 School of Environment and Natural Resources, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China
  • Received:2018-04-16 Revised:2018-07-04 Online:2018-11-30 Published:2018-09-30

摘要:

交通部门在中长期具有很高的碳排放增长潜力,对我国低碳转型有重要影响。构建自下而上的能源系统模型PECE-LIU2017及其交通模块,设置未来交通发展的基准、NDC和低碳3个情景,深入分析交通需求背后的驱动因子及发展趋势,制定交通部门中长期低碳发展路径。结果显示,随着经济发展和人均收入水平提高,未来我国交通需求将持续增长。NDC情景下,交通部门有望在2038年左右达峰。在低碳情景下,我国交通部门2050年CO2排放将从基准情景30亿t降低为6亿t,并在2030年左右达峰,为我国中长期低碳发展目标贡献17.5%的累计减排量。2016—2050年低碳交通固定投资需求为15.7万亿元人民币,占我国中长期低碳投资总需求的53%。通过提高燃油经济性、推广新能源汽车以及发挥城市公共出行最大潜力,交通部门能够以技术可行的方式实现低碳转型,并对我国长期低碳发展战略做出重要贡献。

关键词: 交通部门, 减排路径, 自下而上模型, LEAP模型, 国家自主贡献(NDC)

Abstract:

The transport sector has high potential for carbon emission growth in the mid- and long- term and has great impact on China’s low carbon transition. A bottom-up energy system model PECE-LIU2017 which includes detailed transport sector module was developed in this study. Three scenarios were developed to discuss different future transport development pathways: the business as usual (BAU) scenario, Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) scenario and the low-carbon scenario. The low-carbon transition of the transport sector was explored by investigating the main driving factors trend and the impact. The results showed that China’s energy service demand for transport sector will continue to grow in the future. In NDC scenario, CO2 emissions in transport sector will peak at around the year of 2038 while in low-carbon scenario, CO2 emissions will be reduced dramatically from 3 billion tons in BAU to less than 600 million tons by 2050 and peak at around 2030, which will contribute 17.5% of total mitigations to the whole energy system. The total capital investment needs for transport sector during 2016-2050 will be around 15.7 trillion Yuan (RMB), accounting for 53% of national low carbon capital investment demand. By taking measures to improve fuel efficiency, promote new energy vehicles and encourage public travel, the transport sector is able to decarbonize its development pathway in a technical feasible way, and make a great contribution to realize China’s long-term low carbon development strategy.

Key words: Transport sector, Mitigation path, Bottom-up model, LEAP model, Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC)

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