中国交通部门污染物与温室气体协同控制模拟研究

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2020.214

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

开展交通领域大气污染物与温室气体协同减排研究对于实现能源、环境和气候变化综合管理具有重要意义。文中以我国交通部门污染物与温室气体协同治理为切入点,开展道路、铁路、水运、航空和管道运输等各子部门未来需求预测,并运用长期能源可替代规划系统模型（LEAP),通过构建基准情景、污染减排情景、绿色低碳情景和强化低碳情景,模拟分析我国交通领域能源需求、污染物及碳排放趋势。结果表明,强化低碳情景下,我国交通部门能源消费将在2037年达峰,CO₂排放将在2035年达峰;绿色低碳情景下,CO₂排放将在2040年达峰;淘汰老旧汽车、“公转铁”“公转水”等政策性措施将有效减少NOx、PM2.5等污染物排放,发展氢燃料、生物航油等技术性措施将进一步减少污染物排放;要实现交通领域绿色低碳发展,需分别对客运、货运交通从节能降碳与协同减排两方面实施相关措施,综合施策是完成能源消费与碳排放达峰目标的重要保证。

关键词: 交通部门, 大气污染, 温室气体, 协同控制, LEAP模型

Abstract:

It's of great significance to conduct research on the integrated control of air pollutants and greenhouse gases in the transportation sector, which will facilitate the realization of integrated management of energy, environment and climate change. In this study, the co-control of air pollutants and greenhouse gases in the transportation sector was chosen as the starting point to carry out future transport demand forecasts for different sub-sectors in China, such as road transportation, railways, civil aviation, inland shipping, and pipelines. The LEAP model was used to build BAU scenario, pollution reduction scenario, green low-carbon scenario, and enhanced low-carbon scenario on emission reduction technologies and policy choices. The simulation results indicate that energy consumption in the transportation sector will peak in 2037 under the enhanced low-carbon scenario and carbon dioxide emissions will peak in 2035. Under the green low-carbon scenario, carbon dioxide emissions will peak in 2040. Besides, it is essential to reduce air pollutant emissions from road transportation sector by taking effective actions, including eliminating old cars, promoting road-to-rail freight, encouraging road-to-waterway freight, and so on. Moreover, some energy structure optimization measures such as the development of hydrogen fuel and bio-jet fuel technology will further reduce pollutant emissions from the transportation sector. To achieve green and low-carbon development in the transportation sector, energy saving and carbon reduction measures, coordinated emission reduction measures should be respectively implemented for passenger and freight transport, and comprehensive policies are considered as an important guarantee for achieving peak goals in energy consumption and carbon emissions.

Key words: Transportation sector, Air pollution, Greenhouse gas, Co-control, LEAP model

冯相昭, 赵梦雪, 王敏, 杜晓林, 田春秀, 高霁. 中国交通部门污染物与温室气体协同控制模拟研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2021, 17(3): 279-288.

FENG Xiang-Zhao, ZHAO Meng-Xue, WANG Min, DU Xiao-Lin, TIAN Chun-Xiu, GAO Ji. Simulation research on co-controlling pollutants and greenhouse gases emission in China's transportation sector[J]. Climate Change Research, 2021, 17(3): 279-288.

图/表 11

图1 交通部门结构分析框架

Fig. 1 Framework of transportation sector structural analysis

图2 中国2015—2050年交通需求量预测

Fig. 2 Forecast of China's traffic demand during 2015-2050

表1 客运交通情景设置情况描述

Table 1 Description of scenario settings in passenger transport

表2 货运交通情景设置情况描述

Table 2 Description of scenario settings in freight transport

表3 基年能源消费与CO2排放核算

Table 3 Basic annual of energy consumption and CO2 emission accounting

图3 2015—2050年不同情景交通能源消费趋势

Fig. 3 Transportation energy consumption trends in different scenarios during 2015-2050

图4 2015—2050年交通用能结构变化

Fig. 4 Changes of traffic energy structure during 2015-2050

图5 2050年多情景下不同部门能源消费占比

Fig. 5 Energy consumption ratios of different sectors under multiple scenarios in 2050

图6 2015—2050年不同情景交通CO2排放

Fig. 6 CO2 emissions of traffic under different scenarios during 2015-2050

图7 2050年多情景下各部门CO2排放占比（单位：%）注：由内至外4个圈分别代表基准、污染减排、绿色低碳和强化低碳情景。

Fig. 7 Percentage of CO2 emission of various sectors under multiple scenarios in 2050 (unit: %)

图8 2050年不同情景下交通各子部门NOx排放情况

Fig. 8 NOx emission characteristics of various sectors under different scenarios in 2050

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