“双碳”目标下我国电力部门低碳转型政策研究

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2023.041

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

文中构建动态可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型，模拟可再生能源发展、碳税和技术进步在我国电力部门低碳转型中的不同成效，探讨电力部门碳达峰、碳中和的时间与路径。研究发现，电力部门清洁化是其实现碳中和的关键，在大力发展可再生能源的情景下，到2060年电力部门接近实现碳中和目标；技术进步是电力部门低碳转型的重要支撑，可再生能源发展且伴随强技术进步情景下，电力部门在2058年后能够实现碳中和；碳税有助于减排但对经济增长产生负面影响；伴随能源结构优化和技术进步，我国可兼顾实现碳中和与经济增长。最后提出，在大力发展可再生能源和致力于能源技术创新的同时，要拓宽低碳转型渠道，推动电力部门低碳转型的高质量发展。

关键词: “双碳”目标, 电力部门, 低碳转型, 可再生能源, 可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型

Abstract:

The different effects of renewable energy development, carbon tax, and technological progress on the low-carbon transition of power sector were simulated by building a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, and the pathways of carbon peak and carbon neutrality in the power sector were discussed. It is found that the clean power sector is the key to achieving carbon neutral. Under the scenario of vigorously developing renewable energy, the power sector will be close to achieving the carbon neutral by 2060. Technological progress is an important support for the low-carbon transition of the power sector. Under the scenario of renewable energy development and strong technological progress, the power sector can achieve carbon neutral after 2058. Carbon tax contributes to emission reduction but damages economic growth. With the optimization of energy structure and technological progress, China can achieve both carbon neutral and economic growth. Finally, it is proposed that while vigorously developing renewable energy and devoting to energy technology innovation, the channels should broaden to promote the high-quality development of low-carbon transition in the power sector.

Key words: “Double Carbon” goal, Power sector, Low-carbon transition, Renewable energy, Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model

赵玉荣, 刘含眸, 李伟, 弓丽栋. “双碳”目标下我国电力部门低碳转型政策研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2023, 19(5): 634-644.

ZHAO Yu-Rong, LIU Han-Mou, LI Wei, GONG Li-Dong. Research on the low-carbon transition policies of power sector under the “Double Carbon” goal[J]. Climate Change Research, 2023, 19(5): 634-644.

图/表 9

图1 生产模块结构

Fig. 1 Production structure

表1 弹性设置

Table 1 Substitution elasticity

图2 情景设定思路

Fig. 2 Scenario setting frame

图3 2023—2060年不同情景下碳排放路径

Fig. 3 Carbon emission path under different scenarios in 2023-2060

表2 两种技术生产情景下碳排放相对于基准情景的变化

Table 2 Changes in total emissions of two scenarios with technological progress relative to those of the BASE scenario

图4 2023—2060年不同情景下电力部门碳排放路径

Fig. 4 Carbon emission path of power sector under different scenarios in 2023-2060

表3 RE和RE-TECH情景下2060年能源消费结构

Table 3 Energy consumption structure in 2060 under RE and RE-TECH scenarios

表4 RE情景下2030年和2060年电力结构

Table 4 Electricity composition structure in 2030 and 2060 under RE scenario

图5 2023—2060年RE-TAX和RE-STECH情景下GDP与就业增速

Fig. 5 GDP and employment growth under RE-TAX and RE-STECH scenarios in 2023-2060

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