美国退出《巴黎协定》对全球温室气体排放的影响

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2018.087

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

现有研究表明美国退出《巴黎协定》将会在2025年导致其国内排放增加约1.2 Gt CO₂-eq,然而美国退出《巴黎协定》对全球气候治理的影响不仅限于此,还包括资金效应、政治效应,以及惯性效应等对全球排放的间接和长期影响。本文通过构建体现不同效应的全球温室气体排放情景,分析了美国退出《巴黎协定》后对全球温室气体排放可能造成的不同影响。结果表明,美国退出《巴黎协定》的自身效应、资金效应、对伞形国家的政治效应和对发展中国家的政治效应,将分别导致全球2030年的年温室气体净排放量(扣除碳汇吸收量后的温室气体排放量)上升2.0、1.0、1.0和1.9 Gt CO₂-eq,并导致全球2015—2100年的累计排放量分别上升246.9、145.3、102.0和270.2 Gt CO₂-eq。为防止美国退出《巴黎协定》的不利影响进一步扩大,中国应积极引领全球气候治理制度的建设与发展,与各国紧密合作全面平衡地推进《巴黎协定》的落实和实施。

关键词: 美国, 《巴黎协定》, 温室气体排放, 政治效应, 资金效应, 惯性效应

Abstract:

Current studies show the withdrawal of the U.S. from the Paris Agreement will lead to an increase of 1.2 Gt CO₂-eq in its own emission by 2025. However, the effect of the U.S.’s withdraw does not limit to the effect on its own emission, but also have impacts on global emission through indirect impacts such as financial effect, political effect and inertia effect. In this study, various global emission scenarios were built to model the different effects caused by the U.S.’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement. The results show that the self-effects, financial effects, political effects on umbrella countries, and political effects on developing countries will lead to an increase in net global greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions by 2.0, 1.0, 1.0 and 1.9 Gt CO₂-eq, respectively in 2030, and will lead to an increase in 2100 cumulative GHGs emissions by 246.9, 145.3, 102.0 and 270.2 Gt CO₂-eq, respectively. To manage the negative impact of the U.S.’s withdrawal, China should take the lead actively on the establishment and development of global climate governance, cooperate with other countries closely to promote the implementation of the Paris Agreement in a comprehensive and balanced manner.

Key words: The U.S., The Paris Agreement, Greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions, Political effect, Financial effect, Inertial effect

苏鑫,滕飞. 美国退出《巴黎协定》对全球温室气体排放的影响[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2019, 15(1): 74-83.

Xin SU,Fei TENG. The effects of U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on global GHGs emissions[J]. Climate Change Research, 2019, 15(1): 74-83.

图/表 9

表1 文献中美国现有情景下排放

Table 1 Emission projection of the U.S. under current policy scenarios

表2 情景设置与说明

Table 2 Scenarios description

图1 美国在各情景下温室气体排放路径

Fig. 1 Emissions of the U.S. under different scenarios

图2 发展中国家在不同情景下温室气体净排放路径

Fig. 2 Net GHGs emission pathways of developing countries under different scenarios

图3 除美国之外伞形集团温室气体净排放路径

Fig. 3 Net GHGs emission pathways of Umbrella Group (without the U.S.) under different scenarios

图4 各个情景下美国温室气体净排放路径

Fig. 4 The U.S. net GHGs emission pathways under different scenarios

图5 全球各情景下温室气体净排放路径

Fig. 5 Global net GHGs emission pathways under different scenarios

图6 各种效应对2030年全球温室气体净排放的影响

Fig. 6 Various effects on global net GHGs emissions in 2030

图7 各种效应对2015—2100年全球累计温室气体净排放的影响

Fig. 7 Various effects on global cumulative net GHGs emissions during 2015-2100

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