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气候变化研究进展  2019, Vol. 15 Issue (1): 74-83    DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2018.087
  温室气体排放 本期目录 | 过刊浏览 | 高级检索 |
美国退出《巴黎协定》对全球温室气体排放的影响
苏鑫,滕飞
清华大学能源环境经济研究所,北京 100084
The effects of U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on global GHGs emissions
Xin SU,Fei TENG
Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
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摘要 

现有研究表明美国退出《巴黎协定》将会在2025年导致其国内排放增加约1.2 Gt CO2-eq,然而美国退出《巴黎协定》对全球气候治理的影响不仅限于此,还包括资金效应、政治效应,以及惯性效应等对全球排放的间接和长期影响。本文通过构建体现不同效应的全球温室气体排放情景,分析了美国退出《巴黎协定》后对全球温室气体排放可能造成的不同影响。结果表明,美国退出《巴黎协定》的自身效应、资金效应、对伞形国家的政治效应和对发展中国家的政治效应,将分别导致全球2030年的年温室气体净排放量(扣除碳汇吸收量后的温室气体排放量)上升2.0、1.0、1.0和1.9 Gt CO2-eq,并导致全球2015—2100年的累计排放量分别上升246.9、145.3、102.0和270.2 Gt CO2-eq。为防止美国退出《巴黎协定》的不利影响进一步扩大,中国应积极引领全球气候治理制度的建设与发展,与各国紧密合作全面平衡地推进《巴黎协定》的落实和实施。

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苏鑫
滕飞
关键词:  美国  《巴黎协定》  温室气体排放  政治效应  资金效应  惯性效应    
Abstract: 

Current studies show the withdrawal of the U.S. from the Paris Agreement will lead to an increase of 1.2 Gt CO2-eq in its own emission by 2025. However, the effect of the U.S.’s withdraw does not limit to the effect on its own emission, but also have impacts on global emission through indirect impacts such as financial effect, political effect and inertia effect. In this study, various global emission scenarios were built to model the different effects caused by the U.S.’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement. The results show that the self-effects, financial effects, political effects on umbrella countries, and political effects on developing countries will lead to an increase in net global greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions by 2.0, 1.0, 1.0 and 1.9 Gt CO2-eq, respectively in 2030, and will lead to an increase in 2100 cumulative GHGs emissions by 246.9, 145.3, 102.0 and 270.2 Gt CO2-eq, respectively. To manage the negative impact of the U.S.’s withdrawal, China should take the lead actively on the establishment and development of global climate governance, cooperate with other countries closely to promote the implementation of the Paris Agreement in a comprehensive and balanced manner.

Key words:  The U.S.    The Paris Agreement    Greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions    Political effect    Financial effect    Inertial effect
收稿日期:  2018-06-12      修回日期:  2018-08-23           出版日期:  2019-01-30      发布日期:  2019-01-30      期的出版日期:  2019-01-30
基金资助: 国家自然科学基金(71741018);科技部改革发展专项“巴黎会议后应对气候变化急迫重大问题研究”
作者简介:  苏鑫,男,博士研究生;
引用本文:    
苏鑫,滕飞. 美国退出《巴黎协定》对全球温室气体排放的影响[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2019, 15(1): 74-83.
Xin SU,Fei TENG. The effects of U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on global GHGs emissions. Climate Change Research, 2019, 15(1): 74-83.
链接本文:  
http://www.climatechange.cn/CN/10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2018.087  或          http://www.climatechange.cn/CN/Y2019/V15/I1/74
表1  文献中美国现有情景下排放
表2  情景设置与说明
图1  美国在各情景下温室气体排放路径
图2  发展中国家在不同情景下温室气体净排放路径
图3  除美国之外伞形集团温室气体净排放路径
图4  各个情景下美国温室气体净排放路径
图5  全球各情景下温室气体净排放路径
图6  各种效应对2030年全球温室气体净排放的影响
图7  各种效应对2015—2100年全球累计温室气体净排放的影响
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