公平实现《巴黎协定》目标的碳减排贡献分担研究综述

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2018.064

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

各国目前的国家自主贡献与实现《巴黎协定》温控目标的要求仍有较大的差距,各国进一步强化其自主贡献力度亟需公平的碳减排贡献分担作为目标参考。本文系统梳理了碳减排分配涉及的公平原则及其4个主要维度,即排放责任、经济能力、人均主义和国家主义,评述了依据不同维度或维度组合制定的分配方案的研究进展和存在的问题,并将该领域错综复杂的分歧矛盾分为3个层次,即公平原则维度的选择、分配机制的设计以及具体参数设置。研究发现,目前旨在指导各国提高自主贡献力度的公平分配研究在全面性、一致性和客观性方面仍有缺陷,特别是基于多元文献分析以及综合分配模型的综合分配研究不能全面客观地反映发展中国家对公平的关切。为此,本文针对性地提出了未来碳减排贡献分担综合研究的需求和方向,即需要系统阐述发展中国家视角的公平分配方案并构建一个全面、平衡、客观的综合碳减排贡献分担模型,以提升中国在这一问题上的话语权,在公平实现《巴黎协定》目标的进程中更好地发挥贡献者和引领者的作用。

关键词: 减排贡献分担, 国家自主贡献, 公平原则, 《巴黎协定》

Abstract:

It has been acknowledged that the combined NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions) are rather insufficient to stay within the emission ranges consistent with goals in the Paris Agreement, and a feasible benchmark is needed to set as a reference to guide the countries to strengthen their national contributions in an equitable manner. This paper systematically reviews the equity principles involved in mitigation efforts sharing, covering four dimensions of fairness, namely, emissions responsibility, economic capability, egalitarianism and sovereignty. Specifically, this paper reviews the research progress and allocation schemes that are based on different equity dimensions or combinations of several dimensions, and further classifies the divergent contradictions in this field into three levels, that is, the choice of fairness dimension, the design of allocation mechanism and the specific parameterizations. It is found that the “equitable allocation references” that were set to guide countries to increase NDC ambitions are still flawed in terms of comprehensiveness, consistency, and objectivity. In particular, those studies based on multi-bibliographic analysis as well as integrated allocation model led by developed countries fail to reflect the concerns of developing countries about “fairness”. This paper, therefore, points out that the research needs and new direction of studies of national contributions sharing in the future: it needs to systematically elaborate the allocation schemes from the perspective of developing countries, and also construct a comprehensive, balanced and objective integrated allocation model, so as to enhance China’s discourse power on this issue. Consequently, it will help China better play its role of contributors and leaders in the process of equitable realization of the temperature objectives in the Paris Agreement.

Key words: Mitigation contributions sharing, Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), Equity principle, Paris Agreement

林洁,祁悦,蔡闻佳,王灿. 公平实现《巴黎协定》目标的碳减排贡献分担研究综述[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2018, 14(5): 529-539.

Jie LIN,Yue QI,Wen-Jia CAI,Can WANG. A review on the studies of equitable sharing in national mitigation contributions to achieve the Paris Agreement ambitions[J]. Climate Change Research, 2018, 14(5): 529-539.

图/表 3

参考文献

[1]	陈艺丹, 蔡闻佳, 王灿 . 国家自主决定贡献的特征研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2018 ( 3):295-302
[2]	UNEP. The emissions gap report 2017 [R/OL]. 2017 [2018-01-20]. https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/22070/EGR_2017. pdf
[3]	崔学勤, 王克, 傅莎 , 等. 2℃和1.5℃目标下全球碳预算及排放路径[J]. 中国环境科学, 2017,37(11):4353-4362
[4]	Rose A. Equity considerations or tradable carbon emission entitlements [C]//Combating global warming: study on a global system of tradable carbon emission entitlements. Geneva: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, 1992
[5]	Rose A, Stevens B, Edmonds J , et al. International equity and differentiation in global warming policy[J]. Environmental and Resource Economics, 1998,12:25-51
[6]	Rose A, Stevens B . The efficiency and equity of marketable permits for CO2 emissions[J]. Resource and Energy Economics, 1993,15(1):117-146
[7]	Ringius L, Torvanger A, Underdal A . Burden sharing in international climate policy: principles of fairness in theory and practice[J]. International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, 2002,2:1-22
[8]	Aldy J E, Ashton J, Baron R , et al. Beyond Kyoto, advancing the international effort against climate change [R]. Arlington, VA: Pew Center on Global Climate Change, 2003
[9]	Kverndokk S . Tradable CO2 emission permits: initial distribution as a justice problem[J]. Environmental Values, 1995,4:29-48
[10]	Young H P, Wolf A. Global warming negotiations: does fairness count? [C]//The Brookings review 10. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 1992
[11]	Blanchard O, Criqui P, Trommetter M , et al. Equity and efficiency in climate change negotiations: a scenario for world emission entitlements by 2030 [R]. Université Pierre Mendès France, 2001
[12]	OECD. Recommendation of the council of 14th November 1974 on the implementation of the polluter pays principle [EB/OL], Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, 1974 [ 2018- 04- 02].
[13]	Cazorla M, Toman M . International equity and climate change policy [R]. Washington DC: Resources for the Future, 2000
[14]	约翰·罗尔斯. 正义论[M]. 何怀宏, 何包钢, 廖申白译.北京: 中国社会科学出版社, 1988: 301-303
[15]	H?hne N, den Elzen M G J, Escalante D . Regional GHG reduction targets based on effort sharing: a comparison of studies. Climate Policy, 2014,14(1):122-147
[16]	Rajamani L . The principle of common but differentiated responsibility and the balance of commitments under the climate regime[J]. Review of European Community & International Environmental Law, 2000,9:120-131
[17]	Grübler A, Fujii Y . Intergenerational and spatial equity issues of carbon accounts[J]. Energy for Sustainable Development, 1991,16(11):1397-1416
[18]	Neumayer E . In defence of historical accountability for greenhouse gas emissions[J]. Ecological Economics, 2000,33:185-192
[19]	Caney S . Environmental degradation, reparations, and the moral significance of history[J]. Journal of Social Philosophy, 2006,37:464-482
[20]	Caney S . Justice and the distribution of greenhouse gas emissions[J]. Journal of Global Ethics, 2009,5:125-146
[21]	Posner E A, Sunstein C R . Climate change justice[J]. Georgetown Law Journal, 2007,96:1565
[22]	MacDonald G, Abarbanel H, Carruthers P . Long term impact of atmospheric carbon dioxide on climate [R]. Arlington, VA, US: Department of Energy, Office of Scientific and Technical Information, 1979
[23]	Group of 7 Heads of State. G7 economic summit declaration [EB/OL]. Tokyo, 1979 [ 2018- 01- 05].
[24]	H?hne N, Blok K . Calculating historical contributions to climate change: discussing the ‘Brazilian Proposal’[J]. Climatic Change, 2005,71:141-173
[25]	Agarwal A, Narain S . Global warming in an unequal world: a case of environmental colonialism[J]. New Delhi, India: Centre for Science and the Environment, 1991
[26]	Shue H . Subsistence emissions and luxury emissions[J]. Law & Policy, 1993,15:39-60
[27]	Botzen W J W, Gowdy J M , van den Bergh J C J M. Cumulative CO2 emissions: shifting international responsibilities for climate debt[J]. Climate Policy, 2008,8:569-576
[28]	IPCC. Climate change 2014: mitigation of climate change [M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2014
[29]	Caney S . Climate change and the duties of the advantaged[J]. Critical Review of International Social and Political Philosophy, 2010,13:203-228
[30]	Smith K R, Swisher J, Ahuja D . Who pays to solve the problem and how much?[M] // Hayes P, Smith K R. The global greenhouse regime: Who pays? Oxford, UK: Earthscan, 1993: 70-98
[31]	Kartha S, Baer P, Athanasiou T , et al. The greenhouse development rights framework[J]. Climate and Development, 2009,1:147-165
[32]	Chakravarty S , Chikkatur A, de Coninck H, et al. Sharing global CO2 emission reductions among one billion high emitters[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2009,106:11884-11888
[33]	Winkler H, Letete T, Marquard A. A South African approach: responsibility, capability and sustainable development [C]//Equitable access to sustainable development: contribution to the body of scientific knowledge. BASIC Expert Group, Beijing, Brasilia, Cape Town and Mumbai, 2011: 78-91
[34]	Winkler H, Letete T, Marquard A . Equitable access to sustainable development: operationalizing key criteria[J]. Climate Policy, 2013,13:411-432
[35]	Manne A S, Stephan G . Global climate change and the equity-efficiency puzzle[J]. Energy, 2005,30:2525-2536
[36]	Müller B, Mahadeva L . The Oxford approach: operationalising the UNFCCC principle of ‘respective capabilities’ [R]. University of Oxford, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, 2013
[37]	王利宁 . 公平实现两度温升控制目标模型体系的构建与应用[D]. 北京: 清华大学, 2016
[38]	IPCC. Climate change 2007: mitigation of climate change [M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007: 170-250
[39]	Grubb M . The greenhouse effect: negotiating targets[M]. London: Royal Institute of International Affairs, 1989: 70-72
[40]	Jamieson D. Climate change and global environmental justice [C]// Changing the atmosphere: expert knowledge and environmental governance. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press, 2001: 287-308
[41]	Grubb M . The economics of global warming[M]. Washington, DC: Institute for International Economics, 1995
[42]	Meyer A . Briefing: contraction and convergence[J]. Proceedings of the ICE: Engineering Sustainability, 2004,157:189-192
[43]	Welsch H . A CO2 agreement proposal with flexible quotas[J]. Energy Policy, 1993,21:748-756
[44]	B?hringer C, Welsch H . Burden sharing in a greenhouse: egalitarianism and sovereignty reconciled[J]. Applied Economics, 2006,38:981-996
[45]	Bows A, Anderson K . Contraction and convergence: an assessment of the CC options model[J]. Climatic Change, 2008,91:275-290
[46]	H?hne N, den Elzen M G J, Weiss M . Common but differentiated convergence (CDC): a new conceptual approach to long term climate policy[J]. Climate Policy, 2006 ( 6):181-199
[47]	Varian H . Equity, envy, and efficiency[J]. Journal of Economic Theory, 1974,9:63-91
[48]	Bode S . Equal emissions per capita over time: a proposal to combine responsibility and equity of rights for post-2012 GHG emission entitlement allocation[J]. European Environment, 2004,14:300-316
[49]	Pan J H . Meeting human development goals with low emissions: an alternative to emissions caps for post: Kyoto from a developing country perspective[J]. International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law, Economics, 2005,5(1):89-104
[50]	潘家华 . 满足基本需求的碳预算及其国际公平与可持续含义[J]. 世界经济与政治, 2008,1:35-42
[51]	German Advisory Council on Global Change. Solving the climate dilemma: the budget approach special report [R]. Berlin, Germany: WBGU, 2009
[52]	Oberheitmann A . A new post-Kyoto climate regime based on per-capita cumulative CO2-emission rights: rationale, architecture and quantitative assessment of the implication for the CO2-emissions from China, India and the Annex-I countries by 2050[J]. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 2010,15:137-168
[53]	CASS/DRC Joint Project Team. Equitable access to sustainable development: carbon budget account proposal [C]//Equitable access to sustainable development: contribution to the body of scientific knowledge. BASIC Expert Group, Beijing, Brasilia, Cape Town and Mumbai, 2011: 35-58
[54]	丁仲礼, 段晓男, 葛全胜 , 等. 国际温室气体减排方案评估及中国长期排放权讨论[J]. 中国科学: 地球科学, 2009,39(12):1659-1671
[55]	Pan J H, Chen Y . Carbon budget proposal: a framework for an equitable and sustainable international climate regime[J]. Social Sciences in China, 2010,31(1):5-34
[56]	Jayaraman T, Kaniktar T, D’Souza M. Equitable access to sustainable development: an Indian approach [C]//Equitable access to sustainable development: contribution to the body of scientific knowledge. BASIC Expert Group, Beijing, Brasilia, Cape Town and Mumbai, 2011: 59-77
[57]	国务院发展研究中心课题组. 二氧化碳国别排放账户: 应对气候变化和实现绿色增长的治理框架[J]. 经济研究, 2011 ( 12):4-17
[58]	Pan X, Teng F, Wang G . Sharing emission space at an equitable basis: allocation scheme based on the equal cumulative emission per capita principle[J]. Applied Energy, 2014,113:1810-1818
[59]	邓可人 . 浅析美国环境法中的祖父原则[J]. 法学研究, 2013,12:133-135
[60]	Koschel H , Schmidt T F N. Climate change policy and burden sharing in the European Union: applying alternative equity rules in a CGE-framework [R]. Mannheim: ZEW, 1998
[61]	Robertson H G . If your grandfather could pollute, so can you: environmental “Grandfather clauses” and their role in environmental inequity[J]. Catholic University Law Review, 1995,45:131
[62]	Grubb M . Seeking fair weather: ethics and the international debate on climate change[J]. International Affairs, 1995,71:463-496
[63]	Muller B . Justice in global warming negotiations: how to obtain a procedurally fair compromise [R]. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, 1999
[64]	Meinshausen M, Jeffery L, Guetschow J , et al. National post-2020 greenhouse gas targets and diversity-aware leadership[J]. National Climate Change, 2015,5:1098-1106
[65]	Miketa A, Schrattenholzer L . Equity implications of two burden-sharing rules for stabilizing greenhouse-gas concentrations[J]. Energy Policy, 2006,34:877-891
[66]	Vaillancourt K, Waaub J P . Equity in international greenhouse gases abatement scenarios: a multi-criteria approach[J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 2004,153:489-505
[67]	Robiou du Pont Y , et al . Equitable mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement goals[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2017,7:38-43
[68]	den Elzen M G J, Lucas P . The FAIR model: a tool to analyze environmental and costs implications of regimes of future commitments[J]. Environmental Modeling and Assessment, 2005,10:115-134
[69]	Pan X, Teng F, Ha Y , et al. Equitable access to sustainable development: based on the comparative study of carbon emission rights allocation schemes[J]. Applied Energy, 2014,130:632-640
[70]	崔学勤, 王克, 邹骥 . 美欧中印“国家自主贡献”目标的力度和公平性评估[J]. 中国环境科学, 2016,36(12):3831-3840
[71]	den Elzen M G J, H?hne N . Reductions of greenhouse gas emissions in Annex I and non-Annex I countries for meeting concentration stabilization targets: an editorial comment[J]. Climatic Change, 2008,91:249-274
[72]	den Elzen M G J, H?hne N . Sharing the reduction effort to limit global warming to 2℃[J]. Climate Policy, 2010,10:247-260
[73]	CAT. Climate Action Tracker [EB/OL]. Climate Analytics, Ecofys and New Climate Institute, 2015 [ 2018- 01- 05].
[74]	崔学勤, 王克, 邹骥 . 2℃和1.5℃目标对中国国家自主贡献和长期排放路径的影响[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2016,26(12):1-7
[75]	Kartha S, Athanasiou T, Caney S , et al. Cascading biases against poorer countries[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2018,8:348-349
[76]	Civil Society Organizations. Fair shares: a civil society equity review of INDCs [R/OL]. 2015 [ 2018- 06- 15].
[77]	林洁 . 公平实现巴黎温升控制目标的各国减排贡献分担研究[D]. 北京: 清华大学, 2018
[78]	林洁 , 等:公平实现《巴黎协定》目标的碳减排贡献分担研究综述